Azimio leader Raila Odinga.
Opposition leader Raila Odinga’s quest for the African Union Commission (AUC) chairmanship job has put the veteran politician in a catch-22 situation with scenarios that place his illustrious local political career in a fork-in-the-road moment whether he wins or loses the post.
In the last few days, Mr Odinga has declared he will remain active on the local political scene and pointed to the proximity of the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa to Kenya, but analysts say any miscalculation could consign him to a point of no return.
What is clear is that the win-or-lose scenarios do not present Mr Odinga with easy options for his influence on local politics while keeping his reputation intact.
The surprise declaration to go for the seat has already triggered a flurry of political realignment within his Azimio la Umoja One Kenya Coalition, with his co-principal and Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka stepping forward to take over the leadership of the opposition.
‘I’m still around’
On Friday, while speaking in Gem, Mr Odinga said; “Nobody should start planning anything for me, I am still around and I will continue being available for you people. I am going nowhere and my people are ‘unbwogable and unpangarable’.”
By banking on President William Ruto to back his bid, Mr Odinga is caught in yet another dilemma that could force him to slow down in calling out the Kenya Kwanza administration — a scenario that has the potential of setting him up against his supporters who may feel betrayed.
Although Mr Odinga has insisted that he has no plan of exiting local politics — and can actually run in the next poll — winning the AUC seat is likely to put some distance between him and his supporters.
His absence from the local political scene and a possible decision to go slow on the government, as he banks on its endorsement, could also create a vacuum in the opposition that his co-principals can easily take up and consequently dislodge him.
President William Ruto (left) and opposition leader Raila Odinga in Kisozi, Uganda, on February 26, 2024.
If Mr Odinga wins the election for the AU post scheduled for February next year that means that his first four-year term would end in 2028, just a year after the next presidential election.
Although nothing stops him from resigning to come back and run, it would be a major gamble for him to quit such a lucrative job to contest the presidency that has remained elusive in his previous five attempts.
Some of Mr Odinga’s political allies, who have declared interest in the top seat, would also not be comfortable with him resigning to come and complicate the picking of the opposition flagbearer.
An ally of former President Uhuru Kenyatta who spoke off record told Sunday Nation that they initially did not want him to go for the AU job since it was perceived within Azimio circles as a scheme by President Ruto to weaken the opposition.
“But we have since embraced the idea. We all really want him to win because if he loses he will want to run and that will definitely break Azimio because we already have Kalonzo as our possible candidate,” said the official.
The chairperson of the AUC is a busy man, jumping on planes to address a coup here or a trade meeting there as well as constantly managing the staff of the large organisation and speaking on behalf of 55 countries.
The chairperson is allowed to exercise his civil rights, but he cannot engage in any activity that is incompatible with the impartiality required of staff or that may be prejudicial to the interests of the AU.
Regulation: 4.2.3 of the AU, for example, states that staff members shall not stand for elective political office in any state while in active service with the Union. This applies mainly to permanent staff, including members of the AUC. A potential clash with the government of the day on policy could also put Mr Odinga on a collision course with AU policy.
Having been President Ruto’s main challenger in the last General Election held in 2022, the decision of the Head of State to back him is seen as a scheme to remove him from the 2027 equation. It is not immediately clear if Mr Odinga not running in the next poll is one of the conditions in exchange for Dr Ruto’s support.
Mr Odinga, in a recent interview, described his move as a sabbatical leave from local politics to serve the continent.
Kalonzo-Wamalwa plan
His remarks are seen as a response to his co-principles led by Mr Musyoka, who have rolled out an aggressive plan to take over the leadership of the coalition from the former premier.
Azimio la Umoja leader Raila Odinga (left) with former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo in Nairobi on February 15, 2024.
Mr Musyoka — alongside DAP-K party leader Eugene Wamalwa — are said to be seeking to ride on Mr Odinga’s candidature for the top AU seat to rally other Azimio leaders to coalesce around their planned joint ticket, and subsequently back them in the 2027 General Election.
“This is akin to a football match. The team captain has taken a break and is handing over the armband to Mr Musyoka,” Mr Wamalwa said in Nakuru, a day after the duo was hosted by Kanu boss Gideon Moi.
In the event he loses, Mr Odinga would find his coalition having undergone major realignment in readiness for the next poll. Mr Musyoka has since declared that he would not back Mr Odinga again, having supported him in 2013, 2017 and 2022 polls. The opposition risks splitting up should Mr Odinga lose the contest for the continental job and declare his candidature for the presidency.
This scenario further threatens to expose and isolate Mr Odinga, should he decide to run for the presidency again. Similarly, a loss at the AU would offer political fodder for his opponents to label him a perennial loser, both locally and at the continental level. This his opponents, including President Ruto can use to discredit his candidature in the next poll. The suspicion he is treated with is not far-fetched.
Yesterday, Nyeri Governor Mutahi Kahiga told President Ruto to be careful and closely monitor Mr Odinga’s intentions as he campaigns for the AU job.
“We are telling our President to remain alert. Help him (Odinga) in ascending to the AU chairmanship seat but always remember to be alert. Raila is our elder and we love him. But every time he inches closer to power, he always tries to cause turbulence in that government,” the governor said.
But ODM Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna, Siaya Governor James Orengo and his Homa Bay counterpart Gladys Wanga hold that Mr Odinga would easily serve as AUC chair and still steer ODM party.
Prof Macharia Munene of United States International University-Africa also holds that Mr Odinga’s announcement to go for the AUC post will not affect local politics much.
“It doesn't change anything. Raila has held continental positions before including at the AU. We did not see any difference in his politics or the opposition's politics,” Mr Sifuna said.
Mr Orengo noted that Mr Odinga’s rights cannot be curtailed for holding a continental position.
“I want to remove any doubt for any doubting Thomases that Raila’s rights under the constitution have not been suspended, he has a right to participate in the political affairs of Kenya, both as a citizen and as a patriot,” Mr Orengo said.
Ms Wanga said she was confident that Mr Odinga would not lose his political clout even if he takes up the AU job, but added that there will be no leadership vacuum in the party.
“There are those imagining that this is a way of pushing him out of politics. They don’t know that Raila is a force to reckon with. He is an institution and does not need to hold a formal position in a party to command political support,” Ms Wanga noted.
Prof Macharia Munene of United States International University-Africa also holds that Mr Odinga’s announcement to go for the AUC post will not affect local politics much.
“His influence continues just as it was when he was Africa High Representative for Infrastructure. Whether he gets the job or not, he will continue being a candidate in 2027 and beyond. (President) Ruto would like to see him out of local politics but it will not necessarily work,” Prof Munene says.
