Voters in 24 electoral areas will today cast their ballots in by-elections that promise to trigger major political readjustments going into the 2027 General Election.
Both the broad-based government team under President William Ruto and the United Opposition led by former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua and Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka are in the contest to build political momentum seen as crucial in sustaining perception and political popularity narratives.
The newly reconstituted Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) also steps into the spotlight as it oversees its first elections, which have quickly evolved into a crucible of political tension, public scepticism and intense scrutiny.
The by-elections, though local, have drawn national-level political mobilisation, with rival parties deploying heavyweights and flooding the ground with resources.
Reports of violent confrontations, voter intimidation and alleged bribery networks have raised the stakes further, turning what should be a routine democratic exercise into a decisive test of the commission’s ability to enforce order and fairness.
The outcome of the polls would also provide bragging rights to the winning camp, offering the formation a platform to attract new alliances in readiness for the next elections. It is also promising to act as a barometer for choosing new strategic partners, including pre-election power-sharing deals.
Apart from the 181 candidates set to square it out at the ballot, the outcome of today’s by-elections will also either weaken or strengthen the political bargaining power of various regional kingpins. It is likely to give rise to new power brokers while edging out some political principals.
Top leaders facing popularity tests in the mini-polls include Deputy President Kithure Kindiki , Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi , National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula , his Senate counterpart Amason Kingi, Energy Cabinet Secretary Opiyo Wandayi, UDA Chairperson and Embu Governor Cecily Mbarire and ODM National Chairperson and Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga.
Poor performance in some of the seats like Mbeere North, Malava, Kasipul, Ugunja and Magarini constituencies, could force President Ruto to recalibrate his alliances. Mr Gachagua, Mr Musyoka and the other opposition leaders may also use the outcome to reassign roles in their nascent coalition.
DCP leader Rigathi Gachagua drums up support for Mbeere North parliamentary candidate Newton Kariuki during a campaign rally at Kanyuambora Trading Centre on November 16, 2025.
Photo credit: Joseph Kanyi | Nation Media Group
For Prof Kindiki, whose rural home lies just 21 kilometres away in Tharaka Nithi from Mbeere North, a loss would mean a blow to his credibility as the Mountain’s new political kingpin. It would also signal a major political realignment for a region that swept Dr Ruto to power in 2022.
Prof Kindiki is backing the UDA candidate Leonard Muthende, while Mr Gachagua, the Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) leader, is supporting Newton Kariuki, popularly known as Karish, of the Democratic Party (DP).
Deputy President Kithure Kindiki with UDA’s Mbeere North candidate Leo Muthende, at a campaign rally at Kyenire Trading Centre in Embu County on November 22, 2025.
Photo credit: DPCS
“By-elections the world over are a test of political strength. In the context of Kenya, they shape the perceptions of power for the incumbents and their challengers. A loss for UDA is also a victory for Gachagua. Showing Ruto that he made a grave mistake sidelining the ‘protector of the mountain’,” said Prof David Monda, a United States-based political analyst.
He added: “If Kindiki is able to help the UDA candidate win in Mbeere North, his political stock goes up. Same to Mudavadi and Wanga, who will then be able to make a strong case to be further entrenched with Ruto in his effort to shape the outcome of the 2027 elections. Defeat in the by-elections is a massive humiliation for Ruto and reinforces the narrative of ‘one term’.”
Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi addressing the press in Kakamega on November 23, 2025 after Malava parliamentary aspirant Joab Manyasi stepped down in favour of UDA's David Ndakwa.
Photo credit: Isaac Wale | Nation Media Group
Mr Mudavadi is seeking to recapture the seat that was held by his now-folded Amani National Congress (ANC). The late Malulu Injendi was among seven MPs elected on ANC in 2022. Injendi garnered 22,891 votes, beating his closest competitor, Seth Panyako (then in UDA) who got 20,133. In the by-elections, Mr Panyako is running on DAP-K against UDA’s David Ndakwa.
Seth Panyako.
Photo credit: File | Nation Media Group.
On Monday, the Prime Cabinet Secretary resorted to dishing out State appointments in a desperate attempt to sway the outcome of the elections.
Of the 24 by-elections, Nairobi’s Kariobangi North Ward and Chewani Ward in Tana River County have attracted the highest number of candidates at 16 each, according to the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC).
Magarini, Ugunja and Kasipul constituencies have attracted 10 candidates each, while Mbeere North and Malava constituencies each have nine candidates. In the Baringo senatorial race, a total of six candidates are on the ballot.
The Ugunja seat fell vacant following the appointment of Mr Wandayi to the Cabinet in August 2024, while the Malava one became vacant following the death of Injendi on February 17.
The Mbeere North became vacant after Geoffrey Ruku’s appointment to the Cabinet in April, while Banisa’s vacancy arose from the death of MP Hassan Kullow in a road accident on March 29, 2023. Magarini’s seat was declared vacant after the Supreme Court upheld the nullification of Harrison Kombe’s election on May 31, 2024.
Other than Mr Kariuki and Mr Muthende, other candidates in the Mbeere North race are Duncan Mbui (Chama Cha Kazi), Lawrence Mwaniki (Safina), Albert Murimi of National Vision Party, Daniel Ngari of Kenya Moja Movement (KMM), Reuben Muriithi of Alliance for Real Change (ARC), Waiharo Mwaura of Umoja na Maendeleo Party and Isaac Muringi of the United Progressive Alliance.
Yesterday, Mbeere North Returning Officer John Kinyua and IEBC Chief Executive Officer Hussein Marjan and other officials said that they are set for the exercise.
Mbeere North by-election parliamentary candidate Duncan Mbui of Chama Cha Kazi campaigns at Kamumu Village on November 19, 2025.
Photo credit: Joseph Kanyi | Nation Media Group
“We will issue out the materials to presiding officers who will travel to the various polling stations ready for the kick off of voting on Thursday at 6am and close at 5pm,” Mr Kinyua said.
Mr Marjan explained that in the event voting starts after 6am in any polling station, the lost time will be compensated by closing later than 5pm. The officials said adequate security has been provided to ensure the poll goes on uninterrupted.
“Police officers have been deployed to the polling stations and there should be no cause for alarm,” added Mr Marjan.
In Kasipul, the perception is that the race could go either way after months of gruelling campaigns by the candidates, including ODM’s Boyd Were and Philip Aroko (Independent). The constituency has 67, 513 registered voters.
Ms Wanga led ODM in the campaigns that have seen heavy mobilisation of resources and the party’s bigwigs. Ordinarily, campaigns in the area would have been an easy ride for ODM owing to its years of influence in the region. But Homa Bay Town MP Peter Kaluma’s outburst at the weekend revealed the level of threat ODM is facing.
Mr Kaluma accused former governors Evans Kidero (Nairobi) and Okoth Obado (Migori) of openly campaigning for Mr Aroko. The two leaders are associated with UDA.
Kasipul parliamentary candidate Philip Aroko speaks to his supporters in Kosele, Homa Bay County after being cleared to run the November 27 by-election.
Photo credit: George Odiwuor | Nation Media Group
“We cannot be in a broad-based government together while the UDA members are campaigning for our opponent. It is confusing our people. I’m asking the president to rein in those people,” Mr Kaluma said.
ODM candidate for the Kasipul parliamentary seat Boyd Were, ODM deputy party leaders Abdulswamad Shariff Nassir, ODM secretary general Edwin Sifuna and Migori Senator Eddie Oketch after Were was cleared to run in the November 27 by-election.
Photo credit: George Odiwuor | Nation Media Group
Critics have accused the party of mismanaging nominations, which saw some of the aspirants jump ship to run as independent candidates. Top party officials were seen to favour Mr Were even before the party held its primaries. Mr Were is seeking to succeed his slain father, Ong’ondo Were. In Mandera, IEBC Commissioner Hassan Noor Hassan said all the logistics for the Banisa by-election have been finalised and materials dispatched to all 81 polling centres in the constituency.
“We are ready for the Thursday exercise where voters within Banisa Constituency shall go to the polls to elect the area member of Parliament,” he said.
Banisa Sub-County Police Commander Antony Thumbe said security measures have been put in place to ensure a smooth exercise.
“We are deploying more than enough security officers to ensure this exercise goes on uninterrupted in all the polling centres,” he said. He explained that all the polling centres will have at least two security officers, while others will conduct patrols within the constituency.
Magarini voters will have an opportunity to elect their representative after waiting for nearly two years. Apart from Mr Kombe, who is defending the seat under the ODM party, other candidates are Stanley Kenga of DCP, Furaha Chengo Ngumbao of the Democratic National Alliance, Hamadi Chadi Karisa of the Roots Party of Kenya and John Sulubu Masha of the Kenya Social Congress.
ODM Party Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna (right) campaigns for the Magarini ODM candidate Harrison Kombe ahead of the November 27 by-election. Mr Sifuna alleges a plot by President Ruto to have him dismissed as ODM secretary general.
Photo credit: Kevin Odit | Nation Media Group
Others are Emmanuel Kitsao Kalama of the We Alliance Party, Amos Katana (Independent), Sarah Wahito Gakahu of KMM and Jacob Themo Kwicha of the Federal Party of Kenya.
According to the 2022 register, the constituency has a total of 80,128 registered voters. Data from the IEBC shows that the highest number of voters is in Gongoni (17,685), followed by Magarini (17,099) and Adu (16,263).
IEBC Commissioner Alutalala Mukhwana said security has been reinforced, and all is set for the exercise to proceed smoothly.
“In the 193 polling stations where the by-election will take place, we have deployed more than two police officers, and all the equipment needed for the voting exercise is ready for distribution,” he said.
Three new polling centres in Baringo South have been relocated due to flooding. The three—Noosukro Primary School, Lake Baringo Secondary and Ng’ambo Primary—have been moved to Sokotei, Kipkimilwa and Kiserian villages, respectively.
Wiper Patriotic Front Leader Kalonzo Musyoka arrives at Ngalula in Adu Ward as he leads United Opposition campaigns in Magarini constituency for DCP candidate Stanley Karisa Kenga on November 24, 2025.
Photo credit: Pool
“People have moved from the submerged villages, and we have moved the polling centres to where the people moved to and as guided by the stakeholders who chose the new areas. We have gazetted the new stations, and we have even gone ahead to place arrows, banners and notices to inform the locals, an exercise we did a week ago,” County Returning Officer John Mwangi said.
UDA party Baringo Senate nominee Vincent Kiprono Chemitei displays his nomination certificate after being declared the winner on September 21, 2025.
Photo credit: Florah Koech | Nation
Candidates in the race include Vincent Chemitei of UDA, Benjamin Chebon of The New Democrat, Shadrack Kibet Kaplawat (ARC), Steve David Kipruto (Republican Liberal Party), Samuel Letasio (KMM) and Daniel Kirui of Umoja na Maendeleo.
In Turkana County, security has been heightened in Lake Zone and Nanam wards following claims of election malpractices and fears of disruption of voting.
IEBC officials have distributed election materials from Mogilla Girls High School (Nanam ward tallying centre) in Turkana West to 13 polling stations where 4,158 registered voters are expected to cast their votes.
Reporting by Mwangi Muiruri, Gitonga Marete, George Munene, Manase Otsialo, Maureen Ongala, Anthony Kitimo, Stephen Oduor, Flora Koech, Sammy Lutta, Titus Ominde, Rushdie Oudia, George Odiwuor, Kassim Adinasi and Shaban Makokha.
