In BBI drive, it has boiled down to red, green, orange

To achieve this, counties identified as “friendly” by the BBI secretariat have been tasked to ratify the document by next Thursday as Mr Kenyatta and Mr Odinga rally assemblies still fence-sitting to support the push.

Three clusters

The secretariat has also zoned the country into three clusters — red, orange and green — according to a source familiar with the strategy but who spoke in confidence.

While red zones like the Rift Valley, where Deputy President William Ruto holds sway, have not openly said they will oppose the referendum, their lukewarm support means they may fail to endorse it to show “displeasure” at how their regional kingpin is being treaty by the Jubilee administration. The rejection may thus not be expressly because they disagree with the proposed changes, but only to make a strong political point ahead of the 2022 elections.  Dr Ruto said Saturday he is not expressly opposed to the document, but wants wananchi to be given the chance to read it for themselves rather than be bamboozled by politicians.

Areas deemed hostile will not receive much attention from the Handshake brothers given the strict timelines, the pro-BBI source told the Nation.

Nandi Speaker Joshua Kiptoo, whose county is perceived to support Dr Ruto, said: “There is no pressure on us to either pass or shoot down the Bill, but let us see what our people will say next week when we will start public participation campaigns.”

Green counties — or those that are safely within reach, such as Mr Odinga’s Nyanza backyard, Nairobi, Western and parts of Coast — will be mobilised to ensure optimal support, a paper prepared by the secretariat and seen by the Nation notes. A number of assemblies in Mr Kenyatta’s Central backyard have also been put in the green category.

Saturday, Majority leader at the Nairobi County Assembly Abdi Guyo said it was all systems go this week to endorse the Bill.

“We will table it on Tuesday and pass it by Thursday. We want to lead the way as the capital city,” he said.

Nairobi Senator Johnson Sakaja said they had aligned the assembly, with the Senate equally waiting to consider the Bill as fast as possible.

“The engagements are on high gear and Nairobi is ready to pass the Bill. We (Nairobi) are the biggest beneficiaries in terms of more representation in Parliament and more revenue share,” he said.

Multi-pronged strategy

Mr Odinga, who is also the ODM party leader, hosted Turkana MCAs on Friday night as part of a multi-pronged strategy to achieve the requisite numbers.

After the meeting, he said the people of Lodwar and Kakuma “have spoken in one voice; that they don’t want to be left out as the rest of the country reaps from the proposed allocations to the counties”.

Turkana, Mandera, Isiolo and Marsabit are some of the counties put in the orange zone, meaning they can be flipped to the Yes side with just a little effort or persuasion. Mr Odinga is expected to make more stopovers there.

The promise of a ward development fund in the proposed changes is already working miracles in counties as sitting MCAs and those plotting to inherit their seats next year incite the public against any of those opposing the document. Already, Siaya County has passed the Bill.

At the same time, Mr Odinga is Monday set to chair the Luo Nyanza regional consultative meeting in Kisumu, where he will meet ODM elected leaders at all levels as well as businessmen, professionals and the Luo Council of Elders.

In one of the meetings with Mr Odinga a fortnight ago, President Kenyatta is said to have offered to personally take charge of the Central region. He has since met with MCAs from the region to lobby them.

The President is responding to concerns in his camp that if any of the counties in his backyard shoots down the Bill, that would injure his standing as the regional kingpin as he approaches the end of his term. Such would also see more politicians from the region openly defy him. For a man keen to play an influential role in his own succession, he is fired up to avoid that pitfall.

The Nation learnt this week that initially, there was a plan to tag along Mr Odinga in the Mountain tours but this idea was dropped at the eleventh hour to deny the Tangatanga group that oscillates around the Deputy President William Ruto — who has since fallen out with the president — a chance to make the BBI about 2022 succession and the ODM leader.

2022 campaigns

Making BBI about Mr Odinga in Central is a potent tool to have it shot down in some counties where DP Ruto has made inroads, according to another source in the BBI secretariat.

Mr Kenyatta’s handlers, who are concerned that the debate to amend the laws is being linked to the 2022 campaigns by key political players, are behind the idea of conducting the referendum earlier than scheduled in order to muddy the political field.

Pro-BBI MPs, governors and senators — buttressed by a few civil servants — have been split into groups as the campaign to pass the Bill enters the homestretch, with its promoters taking no chances.

That DP Ruto has refused to lead the ‘No’ camp has also left those opposed to the initiative rudderless, and this promises to give Mr Kenyatta and Mr Odinga an easy time in realising the constitutional changes.

National Assembly Speaker Justin Muturi has already indicated that Parliament only needs three weeks at most to dispense with the Bill after at least 24 county assemblies endorse it, and these sentiments have given the BBI team more impetus.

“I have directed that we have the Legal Committee Bill as the anchor Bill so that if there are any amendments to it, they can be informed by the Constitutional Implementation Oversight Committee (CIOC) Bill. That way we will not have different committees doing the same thing,” Mr Muturi said.

Secretariat chairman Denis Waweru said they had reached out to counties to avoid any surprises at the last minute, and that Mr Kenyatta’s Sagana meetings are already bearing fruit.

“We have lobbied all counties to support the Bill. Those who are waiting for Mount Kenya to embarrass the President are in for a rude shock. The House of Mumbi (the Agikuyu) is solidly behind its leader, the President. The deal is done and dusted,” he said Saturday.

Mr Waweru’s co-chairman Junet Mohamed added: “We will have the necessary numbers in county assemblies by the end of the month. We have done our simulations. They show that already we have more than enough.”

Homa Bay County Assembly is set to debate the Bill on Thursday. Speaker Elizabeth Ayoo said, while in Kisumu Speaker Elisha Jack Oraro said the document will be tabled on Tuesday.

Speakers of the counties that approve the constitutional amendment Bill are required by law to prepare a certificate of approval to the two speakers of the Senate and National Assembly.

Parliament, which will be the next stop for the Bill if it is approved by at least 24 counties, plays a nominal role, however, as the Bill will end up in a referendum whether or not they approve it.

Additional reporting by Rushdie Oudia, Onyango K’Onyango and George Odiwuor