Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua has finally settled on May 15 as the day he will launch a new party to take on President William Ruto's United Democratic Alliance (UDA) in the upcoming by-elections, his allies have revealed.
The already registered political party will be unveiled by making public its name, slogan and colours ahead of a major political jamboree on May 29 when the outfit will be formally launched.
Gatanga MP Edward Muriu, a close ally of Mr Gachagua, disclosed the dates even as his Embakasi Central counterpart Benjamin Gathiru alias Mejja Donk revealed that they were already planning to field candidates in the pending by-elections on the new outfit.
“We are going to unveil the new party on May 15. This will be followed by an official launch on May 29,” said Mr Muriu.
Mr Gathiru also indicated that there are some elected leaders willing to resign from UDA, especially from Mt Kenya region, to seek a fresh mandate on the new political party.
Mr Gachagua had in February indicated that about 139 Members of County Assembly had already indicated their willingness to resign from UDA and seek a fresh mandate . He said the region had since become hostile towards President William Ruto’s UDA, making it uneatable for the leaders to continue serving on the ticket.
“We are going to force a little general election after IEBC is constituted because our people do not want to live a lie. Mt Kenya residents are honest people, they are people of integrity, and they don’t know how to pretend,” said Mr Gachagua.
“I am encouraging my MCAs, MPs, and Senators the ones who make that very brave decision because that is very courageous to leave a seat you have been elected and go back to the people, I want to assure them the way I am listening to our people, any leader who makes that decision will be re-elected with a very serious majority and they will be heroes of our people and their politics will prosper for decades to come,” he said.
Resigning from an elective seat to face the electorate has a potential of having some of the elected leaders lose their seats barely three years after securing their five-year terms. Such an election would also mean that leaders dig deep into their pockets to finance the campaigns when some were yet to recover from the 2022 expenses.
Mr Gathiru told the Nation that once IEBC is reconstituted, some of the elected members allied to Mr Gachagua would resign. He said the resignation would only apply to certain constituencies and wards.
“Some are willing to resign. It will not be a blanket decision, it will depend on the electoral area,” said the MP. He also talked about the new party’s plan to field candidates in the forthcoming by-elections.
“The yet-to-be unveiled Gachagua-led party is a national party that will have to field candidates across the country. Of course we have our partners, and we may in some areas opt out in support of a partner with a better chance of winning depending on the area,” he said.
Analysts note that the outcome of the pending by-elections would be a pointer to the country’s changing political landscape going into 2027 General Elections.
For President Ruto and opposition leader Raila Odinga , the by-elections in Magarani, Banisa, Malava and Ugunja constituencies as well as Baringo Senate would be a major litmus test for their political unity.
Another eight wards spread across the country will also be having by-elections once the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) is reconstituted.
The mini-polls would also be a sort of a referendum on Kenya Kwanza administration that has been struggling for support following the nationwide June, 2024 protests by the Gen Zs.
“It would depend on which part of the country the by-election is happening. Largely, it would be a pointer to the popularity of Ruto and his administration,” says Prof Macharia Munene, a political analyst and university lecturer.
“If the people in areas to hold the by-elections have a problem with his administration, they would vote against any candidate associated with him,” notes Prof Munene.
It would be the first time the country is having by-elections since Kenya Kwanza rode to power on lofty promises of creating jobs for millions of unemployed youths as well as bringing down the cost of living.
But the administration has largely not lived up to the expectations of some of its supporters, making it unpopular in certain regions.
Banisa parliamentary seat fell vacant following the death of MP Kullow Hassan (United Democratic Movement - UDM) in March 25, 2023 while Magarini constituency has been with no MP after the Supreme Court nullified the election of Harrison Kombe of ODM in March 2024.
In Ugunja, the locals have no MP after President Ruto appointed Mr Opiyo Wandayi (ODM) to the Cabinet in July 2024. Baringo Senate seat has also become vacant following the death of Senator William Cheptumo on February 16, 2025, with Malava constituency being the latest to lose its MP Malulu Injendi who died on February 17, 2025.
At the height of bitter fallout between Dr Ruto and then President Uhuru Kenyatta , the ruling Jubilee Party suffered a string of losses in by-elections, especially in Mt Kenya. They include Kiambaa and Juja in Kiambu county, home county of Mr Kenyatta.
Machakos Deputy Governor Francis Mwangangi notes that political figures aspiring for national offices would have to flex their muscles in the mini-polls.
“It would be an opportunity for the top leaders to measure their popularity. If you are president and the candidate you back loses in a by-election, it points to a waning political influence,” says Mr Mwangangi.
He further observes that the mini-polls would offer an opportunity for the country to test the IEBC system. He says credibility of the mini polls would be a pointer if the country would have the right people in IEBC to deliver credible elections.
“It will depend on where the by-election is. If it is Ukambani, I don’t see why another affiliate party would want to field separately. For UDA, it would be bad for Kenya Kwanza because it would show how unpopular they have become since coming to the office,” says Mr Mwangangi.
Kitui Senator Enoch Wambua notes that it would be tough for Dr Ruto to win any of the seats through his UDA.
“I can tell you that if it is not a referendum on Ruto’s administration, it would be a big political lesson for Ruto. For him to secure any of those, he would have to work extremely hard,” says Mr Wambua.
He notes that the by-elections present a mixed bag of political scenarios that could see key players make major political compromises.
“There could be political compromises. When the polls are called there would be compromises based on the political arrangements,” he notes.
