The recent consistency and aggressiveness with which allies of former Prime Minister Raila Odinga have become President William Ruto's most vocal defenders has sparked debate about the party's game plan.
Despite insisting it is firmly in the opposition, all indications are that the Orange Democratic Alliance (ODM) is politically in bed with the ruling Kenya Kwanza Alliance.
While they think that just as the 2018 ‘Handshake’ where all the “sins” of former President Uhuru Kenyatta ’s administration were shared by Mr Odinga and his party, with some saying it cost him the 2022 presidential elections, the President and the government, now under constant criticism over its performance may be a burden.
Analysts say that if not handled with care, this could be like a millstone around the neck of Mr Odinga and his party ahead of the 2027 election.
Former ODM deputy party leaders Hassan Joho and Wycliffe Oparanya, ex-ODM National Chairman John Mbadi and ex-Secretary of Political Affairs Opiyo Wandayi, who were incorporated into the broad-based Cabinet in July, have become the most vocal defenders of the regime.
Their efforts have been bolstered by ODM Director of Elections Junet Mohamed, who is also the leader of the opposition troops in Parliament.
Mr Mohamed, by virtue of his position as Minority Leader in the National Assembly, is well placed to determine the direction that ODM, and possibly by extension the Mr Odinga-led Azimio la Umoja One Kenya Coalition legislators of which he is the secretary-general, take in voting in Parliament.
Even though Mr Odinga has insisted that the party remains in the opposition and only donated its experts to the cabinet to help steady Dr Ruto’s ship, the recent sentiments by his close allies contradict the position.
Following intense political pressure against the ODM party’s stance, interim party leader Prof Anyang’ Nyong’o was on Friday forced to issue a statement, reaffirming the outfit’s opposition role.
“Let there be no misunderstanding: ODM does not play second fiddle or trumpet the interests of any other political party. We remain a formidable force in shaping Kenya’s political landscape, firmly rooted in our principles and ideology,” Prof Nyong’o said.
But the Kisumu governor also underscored the need for what he termed as “strategic partnerships,” signalling the party’s possible commitment to a deal with the ruling Kenya Kwanza and President Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA) in particular.
“As a political entity, we understand the value of strategic partnerships. From time to time, we may choose to form alliances and coalitions with other parties or groups that align with our objectives and vision for Kenya,” Prof Nyong’o wrote.
He added: “These partnerships are not acts of subservience but deliberate efforts to strengthen our resolve in achieving our primary goal: capturing political power to transform the lives of Kenyans.”
Already ODM is under pressure to formalise its partnership with President Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance.
Narc Kenya leader Martha Karua , Mr Odinga’s Azimio presidential running mate in the last election, told Nation.Africa that ODM should not continue clinging on opposition seats in parliament while it is clear it had joined the government.
“I want to call upon my friend and brother, Raila Odinga — because even if we differ politically, he is still my brother and friend — to do the honourable thing. Have a post-election coalition agreement with Ruto so that they are in government, not through the backdoor, not through a come-we-stay marriage, but through a proper marriage, a political marriage, solemnised by the registrar of political parties,” Ms Karua told Nation.Africa in an exclusive interview.
She lamented that what Mr Odinga’s ODM was doing; “is being less than candid, by occupying crucial seats that belong to the opposition in Parliament.”
Ms Karua cited the Public Accounts Committee and the Public Investment Committee among other crucial opposition watchdog teams in Parliament that ODM needs to relinquish.
“They should relinquish those seats and let the next big party in parliament occupy them. For us in Narc Kenya, we have clarity of thought, that once there is a mix-up of who is opposition and who is government, we cannot be in that boat and that’s why we are in the process of exiting Azimio,” Ms Karua said.
Political analyst Dismas Mokua argues that based on the current relationship between Mr Odinga’s party and Ruto’s UDA, ODM would suffer brand liabilities in the event that President Ruto fails to deliver his promises to Kenyans, but insists this may not affect the party’s 2027 prospects.
“Under normal circumstances, ODM would suffer brand liabilities if the Kenya Kwanza administration does not perform nor deliver on the Kenya Kwanza manifesto. Kenya’s political elite may register offence at Mr Odinga’s support for the broad-based government,” he said.
Mr Mokua added: “But the elite’s disappointment is unlikely to move the needle and may not be material in the 2027 elections. It is the case that the elite are the first to align with tribal interests ahead of general elections,”
He says that Mr Mohamed, being a close ally of Mr Odinga “has aligned with his interests and aspirations and now has a front seat in President Ruto’s itinerary provided Mr Odinga’s interests are taken care of.”
Mr Mohamed, he argues, will move positions at the drop of a hat if instructed as much.
“In theory, ODM will carry the sins of Kenya Kwanza incumbency. However, in practice, political parties will align and realign ahead of the 2027 general elections informed by political party leaders’ interests and aspirations. The typical Kenyan voter abandons logic during general elections. You cannot lose your money if you get that the typical voter is emotional and irrational. Elections both in Kenya and elsewhere confirm as much. That is why folks suffer from voters’ remorse,” said Mr Mokua.
Political analyst Martin Oloo, however, insists that “the ODM brigade has willingly decided to see no evil, hear no evil, smell no foul smell, and like Covid victims they have lost sense of smell and taste in matters governance and accountability.”
He added: “They have with alacrity, decided to carry Kenya Kwanza’s skunk.”
Mr Wandayi, the Energy and Petroleum Cabinet Secretary, insists it’s not a crime to be in government, noting that they are still in a position to fight for the rights of the people even within government.
“Why is it that when the Luo community is in government, it is bad, but when they are on the streets fighting the existing administration, all these other voices support the state claiming it is good?” said Mr Wandayi, referring to the shift of ODM’s perceived support base in Nyanza.
He went on: “Even entities including the church, civil societies, and other NGOs are now finding their voice. This is certainly a conspiracy and we can see through it.”
“Someone tell ODM Ministers in the Kenya Kwanza government that we all know how their excitement will end; in tears. History is replete with what happens to political hirelings. If you are paid to be a cheerleader, you have an expiry date no matter what delusion you entertain,” said Mr Kipkorir.
ODM Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna has also differed with their former members and Mr Mohamed, over support for the Ruto administration.
“We have no deal with UDA and we are not in government. I want to say that the secretary-general is the official spokesperson of the party and I speak after deliberations by party organs,” said Mr Sifuna.
He went on: “The reason I did not even attend the President’s State of the Nation address is that (President) Ruto cannot be trusted and I don’t believe he speaks the truth.”
ODM Deputy Organizing Secretary and Saboti MP Caleb Amisi also believes that their counterparts were going overboard in their dealings with the government and exhibiting “arrogance towards Kenyans.”
“I'm warning my colleagues from the opposition to stop exuding grandiose and arrogance while addressing Kenyans in public. You may be reaping big from the government as an individual, but remember, the decades-long of blood and sweat opposition supporters have endured goes beyond your life in politics,” Mr Amisi said, adding that it was possible to put a point forward “without abusing the very citizens from whom you draw your legitimacy”.
Mr Amisi argues that their colleagues were making their political wing look bad and, by extension, valueless to any political cause in the future.
But Homa Bay Town MP Opondo Kaluma, an ardent supporter of the broad-based government, believes those opposed to the idea were largely members of the Mt Kenya region who have since fallen out with Kenya Kwanza administration.
“After voting for William Ruto, some guys now want us to join them in not supporting him. The guys feel so entitled that they believe they think for other Kenyans. Forget it, a friend in need is a friend indeed,” he said, referring to President Ruto’s olive branch to the ODM party and the Luo community through government appointments.
United States International University lecturer Prof Macharia Munene agrees that ODM will be affected, whether positively or negatively, as the move to work with the government reinforces the party’s image of having no principles except Raila's wishes.
“Was it not Junet who once said that he was Raila's cow? During the handshake, ODM shared Jubilee benefits but not the "sins". The same applies in the broad-based, or is it bread-based, government in which ODM gets the bread but escapes the blame. Raila's bread is first in the African Union Commission chair deal and second in hanging on to claims of leading the opposition even after ditching the opposition,” Prof Munene said.
