President William Ruto’s latest sustained political mobilisation in Western Kenya and Nyanza for his 2027 re-election bid amid perceived growing hostility in Mt Kenya is threatening to spoil the party for the Deputy President Kithure Kindiki.
President Ruto picked Prof Kindiki to replace Mr Rigathi Gachagua, who was impeached as the Deputy President, with hopes that the former Interior Cabinet Secretary would help him rally the vote-rich region behind Kenya Kwanza administration.
But the region – a key plank in Dr Ruto’s 2022 election – appears to be drifting away, forcing the President to start making inroads in veteran politician Raila Odinga’s bastions of Nyanza and Western with chances of dropping Prof Kindiki as running mate in the next polls.
Observers reckon that should President Ruto lose the Mt Kenya voting bloc, he would largely be depending on Mr Odinga’s vote basket, further consolidated by Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi and National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula. This, they observe, would likely influence the ticket, adding that the many trips to the western side of the country could also be intended to dangle the 2027 running mate carrot as a bargaining chip.
The surprise political unity between Mr Gachagua and Narc Kenya boss Martha Karua last weekend – which is seen as part of their strategy to consolidate Mt Kenya while fanning anti-Ruto sentiments in the region – further complicates Prof Kindiki’s political hold on the region.
The regional rivals have closed ranks, or at least demonstrated the need to do so, in what promises to be a turning point in the politics of Mount Kenya and, by extension, the country. Observers say their coming together further solidifies the vote-rich Mt Kenya region, consolidating their numbers ahead of 2027 and protecting the region from a potential catastrophic split.
But in a response to the political machinations that could make him a major casualty in the 2027 grand scheme, Prof Kindiki has since rolled out a series of high-profile political meetings at his Karen official residence.
On Wednesday, January 29, he met leaders from his Tharaka Nithi County backyard in Karen, Nairobi. The agenda was promoted as “priority development projects and implementation of government programmes”. Last week, Prof Kindiki had two engagements with leaders from Taita Taveta County before meeting over 50 MPs from Mt Kenya region just two days after his predecessor Rigathi Gachagua met with Members of the County Assembly from Murang’a and Nakuru counties.
In the meeting with Mt Kenya legislators, Nation Africa has learnt that the lawmakers openly told Prof Kindiki that the vote-rich region was increasingly becoming hostile against the Kenya Kwanza regime. The Deputy President has largely avoided attending events in the regions, lending credence to the assertion by the MPs over the hostility on the ground.
The meeting of political leaders from different parts of the country referred to as “development tours” have become common at the official DP residence which also has an office tucked in it.
Sources within Prof Kindiki’s inner circle aware of the meetings say he has started in earnest to build his political team with a national appeal hence the engagement of leaders from different parts of the country.
But political analysts believe his biggest and most urgent agenda is to turn around the political tide in Mt Kenya.
In a meeting with leaders drawn from Embu County last week, the Deputy President said he will not just galvanise Mt Kenya behind President Ruto in 2027 but will push to consolidate the entire country the entire country ahead of the 2027 elections.
“Someone asked if I will mobilise Mt Kenya region for President William Samoei Ruto. My response is simple, I will mobilise Kenya in its entirety for President Ruto and Mt Kenya is part of Kenya,” Prof Kindiki said.
Following the impeachment of Mr Gachagua in October 2024 and the subsequent perceived hostility against the Ruto administration in Mt Kenya, the President appears to have embarked on a strategic campaign to take the Nyanza and Western Kenya voting bloc.
While he has significantly reduced his visits to Mt Kenya after falling out with Mr Gachagua, he has more than doubled his trips to the Western part of the country and shows no signs of slowing down.
“The Mountain is lost. President Ruto knows the Mountain has a mind of its own and will solidly reject him in 2027. For him, it is time to count his losses and move on. This does not bode well for Prof. Kindiki who will pay dearly for what will be seen as being a tool used by Ruto to divide and weaken the Mountain's block vote,” says US-based university lecturer and political analyst, Prof David Monda.
He adds: “Fishing for a running mate from Western or Nyanza does not help matters either because if the current anti-incumbent mood persists in Western and Nyanza, WSR (Dr Ruto) can only count on his Rift Valley backyard for support. A lot will depend on Raila Odinga winning the African Union seat. But I suspect he will still be heavily involved in ODM politics and presidential king making. Tricky times for the man from Sugoi,” adds Prof Monda.
Some of Mr Odinga’s ODM officials are already angling to be Dr Ruto’s running mate in the next election. Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga has since been mentioned as a potential running mate from Nyanza.
Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi – who recently folded his Amani National Congress party to join President Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA) is also being mentioned as a potential running mate.
Kisumu Senator Tom Ojienda recently suggested the possibility of Dr Ruto picking his running mate from ODM.
"ODM will support President Ruto for a second term. The coalition agreement may include the possibility of having a deputy president from ODM,” said Mr Ojienda.
After his week-long tour of the Western region, where he launched or pledged government projects and announced bonuses to some sugarcane farmers, Dr Ruto is again set to visit Nyanza next week.
The President and Mr Odinga are expected to officially open the three-day inaugural Nyanza International Investment Conference (NIIC) scheduled between February 6th and 8th .
“The President is clear; if you want to balance the Central Kenya vote, look at Western Kenya. If he can get Nyanza, Western and Gusii, he will have achieved a lot in his re-election bid,” said political analyst Mark Bichachi.
On January 2, he attended the Piny Luo cultural festival in Siaya, where he was accompanied by Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni and hosted by Mr Odinga – a rare meeting of the trio.
He later travelled to the Mumias Sugar Sports Complex to attend the Kakamega Governor Fernandes Barasa’s cup final.
Given Dr Ruto’s narrow win against Mr Odinga in the last election and the struggle so far to retain the Mt Kenya vote, consolidating Western Kenya appears to be a viable strategy for him.
If he succeeds in ensuring that Mr Odinga is elected chairman of the African Union Commission (AUC), he will have eliminated his closest rival and could be rewarded with an automatic succession of the ODM leader’s votes.
