The United opposition is entering a delicate phase after Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka on Wednesday announced he would skip Friday’s Jubilee Party Special Delegates Conference, an event expected to formalise former interior cabinet secretary Fred Matiang’i’s rise as the party’s presidential candidate with the blessing of retired President Uhuru Kenyatta.
Mr Musyoka cited lack of an invitation and legal sensitivities as his reasons.
“The last time we attended, people went to court arguing outsiders had interfered. So, I will not attend,” he said at Wiper headquarters while handing over nomination certificates to party candidates in the upcoming by-elections.
During the event, Mr Musyoka also dismissed reports that there were behind-the-scenes maneuvers to have him join President William Ruto’s government ahead of the 2027 elections.
“That is pure nonsense. Let them say all they want to say. They are free to say all they want. I remain committed to the united opposition and all that we are saying is that President Ruto, just like the Malawi President Lazarus Chakwera, is going to be a one-term president,” he said.
But beneath the procedural explanation, however, lies a far more consequential reality on the coalition’s bid to stay united ahead of 2027 is now hostage to rivalry over who carries the flag ahead of the 2027 elections.
Mr Matiang’i has in recent weeks sent his strongest signal yet that he is ready to run. On Tuesday, he chaired a consultative meeting with Jubilee leaders at Safari Park Hotel, attended by Secretary-General Jeremiah Kioni and several ex-MPs.
The gathering all but confirmed reports that Mr Kenyatta intends to hand over Jubilee’s leadership to his former Interior minister.
Mr Kenyatta’s Jubilee has been explicitly arguing that it sees Mr Matiang’i as the “ideal reformist” to challenge President Ruto, with Kioni arguing that the former CS offers both national stature and technocratic credibility. The party’s NDC is expected to endorse sweeping leadership changes, among them a possible Matiang’i candidacy.
Mr Musyoka’s absence would underscore his reluctance to cede ground. His allies insist he has “waited long enough” and that 2027 is his turn.
His allies are urging Mr Matiang’I to postpone his presidential ambitions insisting that he is “young” and that he will receive backing in the future. But Matiang’i’s backers, pointing to his track record in government and national recognition, argue he represents a generational shift and a cleaner break from past opposition failures.
By attending Mr Matiang’i’s coronation event, Mr Musyoka would in effect be seen as endorsing his rival’s presidential bid, an act that could irreparably strain his delicate alliance with Rigathi Gachagua, who has openly opposed Matiang’i’s use of Jubilee as a 2027 vehicle.
For Kalonzo, therefore, absence is a political calculation: it spares him from appearing to legitimise Matiang’i while preserving his rapport with Gachagua, whose backing in Mt Kenya remains a crucial bargaining chip in the opposition’s power matrix.
The coalition comprises at least six outfits - Wiper, Jubilee, Martha Karua’s PLP, Eugene Wamalwa’s DAP-K, Justin Muturi’s Democratic Party, and Rigathi Gachagua’s Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP). Mr Musyoka confirmed that he will be attending PLP delegates conference scheduled for next month.
Mr Gachagua, who was impeached as deputy president last year, has openly urged Matiang’i to reject Jubilee and form his own vehicle, arguing that only leaders with rooted regional bases can negotiate credibly within the opposition. Analysts see this as part of his bid to secure Mt Kenya as his bargaining chip. Jubilee, by contrast, insists on elevating Matiang’i as a national rather than regional candidate.
In Western Kenya, DAP-K leader Eugene Wamalwa faces a growing challenge from his own protégé, Governor George Natembeya, whose “Tawe Movement” is drawing massive grassroots support.
