Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi.
Amid growing debate over the running mate position ahead of the 2027 General Election, Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi has remained conspicuously absent from the conversation, raising questions about his political strategy and future ambitions.
In recent months, calls from various political players regarding the deputy presidential slot have intensified.
Within the broad-based government, politicians from the Mt Kenya region have been pushing for Deputy President Prof Kithure Kindiki to retain the position.
A section of leaders from Western Kenya has also proposed National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula for the role.
In ODM, two camps have already emerged, each angling to have one of its own named as President William Ruto's running mate.
One group is backing Mining Cabinet Secretary Hassan Joho, while another is rooting for Cooperative Cabinet Secretary Wycliffe Oparanya.
In the opposition, embattled ODM Secretary General Edwin Sifuna, who hails from Western Kenya just like Mr Mudavadi, has been floated for both the presidency and the deputy presidency.
Amid all these discussions, Mr Mudavadi's name has barely featured, raising questions about his influence ahead of the 2027 election and whether he still harbours presidential ambitions even post 2027.
The Prime Cabinet Secretary has instead focused largely on his government responsibilities, accompanying President Ruto on numerous foreign trips while rarely engaging in local political activities.
President William Ruto (centre) Deputy President Kithure Kindiki (left) and Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi.
On June 13, while accompanying President Ruto to a public event at Masinde Muliro University, Mr Mudavadi criticised opposition politicians and warned residents of Western Kenya against falling into what he described as the opposition's trap.
"There are people purporting to give direction to our community, yet they were impeached, and they don’t know their future. As your leaders, we have decided to support President Ruto’s reelection," said Mr Mudavadi.
"I told you in 2022 he is the route, and now I’m telling you again he is still the route. We should remain focused and let our people not be lied to," added Mr Mudavadi.
Mr Mudavadi, Mr Wetang'ula and Mr Oparanya are widely regarded as part of the old guard that has dominated Western Kenya politics for decades.
Cooperative Cabinet Secretary Wycliffe Oparanya address coffee farmers in Bahati, Nakuru County on April 2, 2026.
The trio is also increasingly being viewed as key players in the region's succession politics ahead of 2032, should President Ruto secure a second term in 2027.
Since the June event, however, Mr Mudavadi has largely stayed away from active local politics. He dissolved his ANC party and merged it with UDA in March 2025, and even a subsequent court ruling declaring the merger illegal has not altered his political stance.
For decades, the Prime Cabinet Secretary has been one of the dominant figures in Western Kenya politics. However, the emergence of younger leaders such as Mr Sifuna and Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya, who are aligned to the Linda Mwananchi movement, is increasingly being viewed as a challenge to the region's old guard.
With Mr Mudavadi firmly backing President Ruto's re-election bid, some politicians have criticised both him and Mr Wetang'ula for waiting until 2032 to join the government.
"The problem with Wetangúla and Mudavadi is that they think their age doesn’t move while that of Ruto moves. Wetangúla will be 75 years old in 2032; he will be old, while Mudavadi will be 71, why would they think they will be given the presidency on a silver platter, and we can wait for them? If they were serious, they should have been the people handing power to Ruto," said Mr Natembeya.
Kakamega Senator Bonny Khalwale also believes the time has come for Western Kenya politics to move beyond Mr Wetang'ula and Mr Mudavadi.
"I don’t want to be seen as chiding my senior brothers, but respectfully, their time is up because our people are no longer with them," said Dr Khalwale.
Last weekend, former Kakamega Senator Cleophas Malala also endorsed Mr Oparanya as President Ruto's running mate.
"If President Ruto wants to pick a running mate from Western Kenya, then the best person is Oparanya," said Mr Malala, who is also the Deputy Party Leader of DCP.
Minority Leader Junet Mohamed and Budalang'i MP Raphael Wanjala have also proposed Mr Oparanya for the running mate position, arguing that the slot should go to ODM.
National Assembly speaker Moses Wetangula confers with Prime cabinet secretary Musalia Mudavadi at Masinde Muliro Stadium in Bungoma county on 1st June 2024 during the 61st Madaraka day celebrations.
"We met as Western leaders and agreed that it is time the running mate came from Western. Oparanya is our preferred candidate," said Mr Wanjala.
Kakamega Governor Fernandes Barasa, however, is backing Mr Wetang'ula, as leaders from the region continue to overlook Mr Mudavadi in the succession debate.
"As the people of Western Kenya, we have identified our own leader, and that leader is National Assembly Speaker Moses Masika Wetang'ula. He is equal to the task. We want our people to understand that after we re-elect President William Ruto in 2027, we expect the presidency to come to Western Kenya in 2032," said Governor Barasa.
According to Professor Luyali Masibo, Mr Mudavadi's demanding role as Foreign Affairs Cabinet Secretary has kept him occupied with international engagements, but that should not be interpreted as political weakness.
"He has literally been a broad and organising meetings for the President where he spends time with the President, and I think he can be the surprise nominee for the running mate posts," says Prof Masibo.
"His being busy doesn’t give him enough time to engage in the local political scene. Currently, Wetangúla has the upper hand over Mudavadi, and Farouk Kibet has even mentioned that Wetangúla can be President Ruto’s candidate," he added.
Nandi Governor Stephen Sang, however, recently at an event in his county insinuated that President Ruto has a soft spot for Mr Mudavadi and could hand him the running mate post.
Prof Masibo argues that unlike Mr Mudavadi, who dissolved ANC and joined UDA, Mr Wetang'ula has retained Ford Kenya and continues to strengthen the party ahead of the next election.
Mr Mudavadi and Mr Kibet campaigned vigorously for UDA in the Malava by-election in November last year, helping the party retain the seat.
"Deep waters run silent. Given the fact that he does his things in silence, you can’t rule out Mudavadi in 2027 and 2032 succession politics," says the don.
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