ODM’s headache: Party faces tough test to retain Nairobi political base
ODM party leader Oburu Oginga during the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) Special Delegates Convention at the ASK Dome, Jamhuri Expo Centre in Nairobi.
The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) faces an uphill task in its bid to maintain its dominance in Nairobi ahead of the 2027 General Election following the death of its former leader, Raila Odinga.
Since the party was founded in 2005, Mr Odinga helped ODM maintain its grip on Nairobi, outshining rival parties as he remained a popular presidential candidate among city residents.
In the 2022 General Election, ODM won the Nairobi Senate seat, the Woman Representative position, 38 county assembly seats and eight of the 17 parliamentary seats.
The party’s Nairobi MPs included TJ Kajwang (Ruaraka), Phelix Odiwuor ‘Jalang’o’ (Lang’ata), Peter Orero (Kibra), Anthony Oluoch (Mathare), Tim Wanyonyi (Westlands), Beatrice Elachi (Embakasi North), George Aladwa (Makadara) and Babu Owino (Embakasi East).
Through ODM, Esther Passaris and Edwin Sifuna also won the Woman Representative and Senate seats respectively.
However, following Mr Odinga’s death, the party faces a difficult task, particularly after internal wrangles that have left the party split into two factions under the party leader Dr Oburu Oginga and former secretary-general and Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna.
The challenge facing ODM was highlighted two weeks ago when Westlands MP Tim Wanyonyi met Dr Oginga and was urged to return to Nairobi to contest the governorship in 2027.
Mr Wanyonyi, however, declined, saying he had already set his political sights on Bungoma, with sources saying he was also unhappy after being denied the ODM ticket for the Nairobi governorship in 2022.
Westlands MP Tim Wanyonyi.
Despite his political stature in Nairobi, the late Mr Odinga had persuaded Mr Wanyonyi to return and contest the Westlands parliamentary seat after the Azimio coalition settled on Polycarp Igathe as its Nairobi governor candidate in 2022.
“It is true that Tim Wanyonyi met Dr Oginga, who asked him to return and contest the Nairobi governorship, but he declined. He told them he had already decided to contest the Bungoma governorship and had even started campaigning,” said Sirisia MP John Waluke, a close ally of Mr Wanyonyi who supports his 2027 bid.
“Tim has already started his campaigns and is the frontrunner in the Bungoma governorship race. We cannot allow him to return and contest the Nairobi governorship again,” Mr Waluke added.
The Westlands MP has publicly declared his support for Mr Sifuna’s Linda Mwananchi faction.
Although he did not attend Mr Sifuna’s meetings in Trans Nzoia and Bungoma two weeks ago, he sent representatives and provided buses to ferry residents to the events.
Makadara MP and ODM Nairobi branch chairperson George Aladw George Aladwa addresses delegates during the party's branch meeting at Pumwani Grounds in Nairobi on November 12, 2025.
Makadara MP George Aladwa has since declared his intention to seek the Nairobi governorship on an ODM ticket, while Mr Owino has aligned himself with the Sifuna-led Linda Mwananchi and publicly stated that he will not use ODM to pursue the seat.
There have been calls for incumbent Governor Johnson Sakaja to join ODM and seek re-election on its ticket. Mr Aladwa, however, insists there must be a competitive nomination process to determine the party’s candidate if that happens.
Mr Aladwa has also maintained that if ODM does not secure the position of President William Ruto’s running mate, the party must be given the Nairobi governorship.
“The Nairobi governorship should be given to ODM, and there is no shortcut on that. We have said we will support the President and his deputy, and those who want to join ODM (Sakaja) must be ready to participate in the nominations,” Mr Aladwa said, claiming that ODM members had clearly demonstrated their support for him.
Political analysts, however, view Mr Aladwa as a candidate lacking excitement, with several opinion polls placing Mr Owino ahead.
Mr Odiwuor has also declared his intention to contest the Senate seat, seeking to replace Mr Sifuna. He has accompanied President Ruto during several tours of Nairobi, where he has been introduced to residents.
“I know you may be taking my Senate bid as a joke, but it will come to pass because I want to fight for the interests of Nairobi residents,” Mr Odiwuor said at one of the events in the city.
Like Mr Aladwa, Mr Odiwuor has yet to establish himself as a strong contender, with many questioning whether his performance can match that of Mr Sifuna, a lawyer and now prominent opposition voice.
With Ms Passaris having made it clear that she will not defend her Woman Representative seat, ODM also appears to lack a strong candidate for the position.
Former Law Society of Kenya (LSK) chairperson Faith Odhiambo has announced her intention to contest the seat but is aligned with the Linda Mwananchi faction.
Other names being discussed for the position include DCP’s Millicent Omanga and UDA Senator Tabitha Mutinda.
The party is also grappling with internal divisions, particularly within Dr Oginga’s faction. Analysts warn that some disgruntled members could opt to run as independent candidates, potentially opening the door for rivals from other parties to defeat ODM candidates.
In Dagoretti North, Ms Elachi is currently engaged in a fierce political rivalry with Kileleshwa MCA Robert Alai, who is also seeking the parliamentary seat.
Political analyst Martin Andati says ODM is currently “a shadow of its former self” in Nairobi and risks losing its political influence in the capital unless it changes strategy.
“Raila was shrewd and strategic, and that helped him dominate Nairobi politics for many years. In some areas, he ensured ODM fielded one candidate to avoid splitting the vote, something that is difficult to achieve now,” Mr Andati said.
“Oburu has no political influence in Nairobi, and you can see that he does not even have popular candidates for governor, Woman Representative or senator. Many popular leaders are in the Linda Mwananchi faction. Unless they change strategy, the party’s representation will decline significantly in 2027,” he added.
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