The absence of veteran politician Raila Odinga has exposed the soft underbelly of his Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), with some of the party’s lawmakers now publicly admitting that it risks losing its traditional bastions in the run-up to the 2027 polls.
Following the death of Mr Odinga in October 2025, political parties that have had insignificant presence in ODM zones have sustained political forays, with an eye on denying the 20-year-old outfit dominance in the next poll.
Former ODM leader Raila Odinga (centre) is mobbed by coast women leaders during an ODM meeting in Mombasa on October 13, 2024.
Photo credit: Kevin Odit | Nation Media Group
President William Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA), Democratic Action Party of Kenya (DAP-K) of former Cabinet Secretary Eugene Wamalwa, United Progressive Alliance (UPA) associated with former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i and Movement for Democracy and Growth of Ugenya MP David Ochieng’ are some of the parties currently scheming to make entry in Nyanza, Gusii, Western and Coast regions.
It is on this basis that the party through its National Chairperson Gladys Wanga and other party stalwarts are demanding for zoning within the broad-based government arrangement as a means of ring-fencing the bastions.
Insiders believe that it is only by retaining its traditional bastions that ODM would have substantive stake in the next government. But it has since rattled some UDA members in ODM zones. It has also rattled some ODM members who want options in the event they feel shortchanged in the party primaries.
History of bungled party primaries
The party is also facing possible mass defections by sitting MPs over suspicion that they could be shortchanged in the party’s nominations. ODM has history of bungled party primaries as well as dishing out direct tickets to loyalists in a trend that has in the past disenfranchise other aspirants.
National Assembly Minority Whip Millie Odhiambo (Suba North), MPs Otiende Amolo (Rarieda), Tom Odege (Nyatike), Catherine Muma (Nominated), Dr. John Ariko (Turkana South), Martin Owino (Ndhiwa) and Aduma Owuor (Nyakach) on Monday sounded the alarm that ODM risk losing out its bastions to other parties.
“Even as we appear to self-cannibalize, we can’t help but curiously observe that small parties are aggressively and strategically moving to occupy the spaces previously held by our beloved ODM party,” Mr Amollo, who is also the party’s Vice Chairperson said in a joint statement.
Rarieda MP Otiende Amollo (left), flanked by Suba North MP Millie Odhiambo, addresses the media at Parliament Buildings, Nairobi on January 5, 2026.
Photo credit: Lucy Wanjiru | Nation Media Group
“It is for this reason that we request our party leader, Dr Oburu Odinga, to move with speed, convene the party’s organs and help restore public confidence in the party, before we begin to hemorrhage members to insignificant political formations.”
ODM has for successive elections been faulted for not conducting free and fair nominations. Those apprehensive of being shortchanged in the party primaries are already plotting to join other partner parties ahead of the next elections.
Those opposed to zoning say such arrangement would deny the region the right leaders. There are also fears that it could lead to voter apathy, which in turn would hurt Dr Ruto’s re-election.
ODM has indicated plans to back Dr Ruto for a second term. In the recent Kasipul by-elections, critics accused the party of alleged mismanaged of nominations, a scenario that saw some of the aspirants jump ship to run as independent candidates.
UDA Chairman for Homa Bay Kennedy Obuya told Daily Nation that zoning was not part of the agreement signed between the ruling party and ODM.
He questioned why ODM was out to stifle multiparty democracy that it claims to fight for. He described the demand as a sign of a party that is scared of any serious political competition.
ODM chairperson, Gladys Wanga.
Photo credit: Alex Odhiambo | Nation Media Group
“ODM is our sister party based on the broad-based agreement that spelt out the 10-point agenda. Zoning is not part of the agreement. ODM has constantly told us how it is the biggest party in the region; if it is that big, what is the fear?”
“They have no reason to fear any other party in the region. They are also free to field candidates across the country, because that is what democracy provides for,” said Mr Obuya.
Suba South MP Caroli Omondi has indicated his plans to seek for re-election on a new party come 2027. ODM Secretary General and Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna, Kisii Senator Richard Onyonka, MPs Caleb Amisi (Saboti) and Anthony Kibagendi (Kitutu Chache South) have remained critical of the broad-based government.
They are seen to be on their way out of the party. Some of them have indicated that they will have no option but to ditch the party should the outfit back Dr Ruto for re-election.
Mr Omondi said Luo Nyanza has always united behind Raila’s presidential bid by voting him to the last man. He says some ODM candidates have always benefited from Mr Odinga’s influence to win their seats. In the absence of Mr Odinga, the ODM lawmaker says the party was likely to lose significant ground.
“When my greenhorn brother Peter Ochola ran in 2017 against John Mbadi, then the Party Chairman, the difference between them was a paltry hundreds of votes notwithstanding the manipulation,” said Mr Omondi.
He said majority of the current ODM leaders are lightweights in terms of experience, capacity and competence, noting that candidates with better credentials will stand a chance within or outside of ODM.
“Majority of voters in Baba’s strongholds want to reciprocate the support extended over the years to Baba by ODM traditional alliance members, particularly the eastern and western regions of Kenya. If the opposition unites under the leadership of both a presidential candidate and a running mate with Azimio heritage, that is where the pendulum will swing.”
“The political parties or formations that understand the above will definitely make significant gains in ODM traditional strongholds,” he explained.
