The embarrassing loss by the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA) in the Ol Kalou by-election has triggered a fresh jostling for the running mate position within the broad-based arrangement.
In a country where voting patterns determine how key government positions are allocated, the loss, which is seen as a rejection of President William Ruto’s bid for a second term by the populous Mt. Kenya, could spell doom for Deputy President Kithure Kindiki.
The Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP) candidate Sammy Kamau Ngotho won the seat after securing 35,440 votes against UDA candidate Samuel Muchina Nyaga, who came a distant second with 5,450 votes.
Jostling for the position has since intensified as politicians from Western Kenya begin to put pressure on Dr Ruto to pick a running mate from the region in his quest to secure a second term.
The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) is also seeking to exploit the unravelling political realignment to lobby for the second-in-command position in its coalition talks with the ruling UDA.
ODM Party Leader Oburu Oginga at the weekend disclosed plans to begin the talks, that would include sharing of government positions. Top ODM officials have repeatedly said they would be entering the pre-coalition agreement as equal partners, implying that the outfit would lay claim on the running mate slot.
With Mt Kenya – a key plank in Dr Ruto’s 2022 election – appearing to be drifting, the President’s political think tank is likely to go back to the drawing board in crafting a winning ticket. The new strategy could include replacing Prof Kindiki, with another politician with a potential of delivering a new voting bloc.
But speaking during a church service in Embu on Sunday, Prof Kindiki dismissed talks about his political influence in the region as a result of the by-election. He said his retention as the country’s deputy president would be based on Kenya Kwanza development track record. He said the 2027 presidential contest would not be determined by empty rhetoric.
DCP's candidate in the Ol Kalou by-election Kamau Ngotho with party leader Rigathi Gachagua at the party headquarters in Nairobi on May 12, 2026.
Photo credit: Bonface Bogita | Nation Media Group
“We have been in politics for over 20 years, and we are going nowhere. When the presidential vote will be taken in 2027, there are people who will be humbled,” said the DP.
He described the outcome of the by-election as ‘small things’, while committing to ensure the region vote as a unit in support of President Ruto.
“At the moment, I am the Deputy President, and I will ensure we walk together as a community.”
President William Ruto and Deputy President Kithure Kindiki inspect the Kulamawe–Garbatulla section of the 750km Isiolo–Mandera Road under the Horn of Africa Gateway Development Project on February 11,2026.
Photo credit: PCS.
But allies of National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang'ula have intensified calls for President William Ruto to pick a running mate from Western Kenya. The politicians argue that the outcome of the by-election signals waning political support for Dr Ruto in Mt Kenya.
Bungoma Governor Kenneth Lusaka said the outcome should prompt the President to strengthen his alliance with Western Kenya, which he described as a reliable political partner ahead of 2027.
"The Ol Kalou by-election has shown us where we stand politically. We want to assure the President that Western Kenya is ready to support his re-election bid," said Governor Lusaka.
He argued that awarding the region the deputy president's position would strengthen support for President Ruto while complementing ongoing government development projects.
"The President should consider giving Western Kenya the deputy president's slot. Together with the many development projects already underway that will further consolidate support for his re-election," he said.
Sirisia MP John Waluke echoed the sentiments, saying leaders from the region had resolved to back President Ruto's second-term bid but expected Western Kenya to be rewarded with the running mate position.
"We are asking the President to consider Western Kenya for the deputy president's position and we believe Speaker Moses Wetang'ula is best suited for that role," said Mr Waluke, who chairs the Western Region Parliamentary Caucus.
He said such a move would galvanise support for President Ruto in Bungoma, Kakamega, Busia, Vihiga and Trans Nzoia counties.
The outcome of the poll has put Prof Kindiki under sharp scrutiny, with analysts saying he is yet to win broad acceptance in Mr Kenya as Mr Rigathi Gachagua’s successor.
Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP) leader Rigathi Gachagua.
Photo credit: Bonface Bogita | Nation Media Group
“Prof Kindiki had earlier promised to whitewash Mr Gachagua in Ol Kalou. He cannot run away from the shame of that resounding defeat,” said political analyst Gasper Odhiambo.
But Prof David Monda – a US-based university lecturer and political analyst – said the outcome is an indication that Mt Kenya has left UDA. He said the vote shows the contempt the region has for President Ruto.
In his observation, he said, the President needs to invest scarce election resources in regions where he has a chance of winning, not in lost causes like Mt Kenya.
“UDA should anticipate an avalanche of defections especially from the Mountain as the elections draw near as politicians begin testing where the wind blows,” noted Prof Monda.
ODM party leader Oburu Oginga, party chairperson Gladys Wanga and other officials of the party during a political rally at Kirembe Grounds in Kisumu on May 31, 2026.
Photo credit: Alex Odhiambo | Nation Media Group
Alego Usonga MP Samuel Atandi said the broad-based team should pick a running mate who can bring numbers in securing Dr Ruto’s a second term. He suggested use of scientific polls in picking such a candidate.
“What matters to me is the ultimate victory by President Ruto. Whoever will make this possible should be the running mate,” said Mr Atandi, who is also the National Assembly’s Budget and Appropriations Committee chairperson.
“If the political science establishes that Samuel Atandi is the ideal running mate for President Ruto, I should be appointed,” said the MP.
The latest survey released on Monday by Infotrak shows Prof. Kindiki as the most preferred running mate for Dr Ruto at 34 per cent support.
Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga came second with 11 per cent, followed by ODM leader Dr Oburu Oginga at five per cent and Mining Cabinet Secretary Hassan Joho at four per cent.
Public Service Cabinet Secretary Geoffrey Ruku has been leading leaders from Mt Kenya East in insisting that Prof Kindiki should remain Deputy President.
He has said leaders from the region are prepared to part ways politically with their counterparts from Mt Kenya West if their position is not supported.
