When Deputy President Kithure Kindiki promised Rigathi Gachagua, his impeached predecessor, a whitewash in the Olkalou by-election after Njuguna Kiaraho's death, he had no idea that he was setting the ball rolling for a humiliating defeat.
In the results that Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) released on July 17, 2026 Mr Gachagua’ candidate triumphed by garnering 85 percent of cast votes over government's 13 percent.
Mr Kamau Ngotho got 35, 440 on Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) while government's United Democratic Alliance (UDA) candidate garnered 5,450 votes of the 41,656 votes that were cast. President William Ruto is the UDA party leader.
Prof Kindiki while addressing a rally in Meru County in April had promised to deal with Mr Gachagua's hubris, bravado, chest thumping and demeaning politics.
Mr Gachagua ruthlessly hit back by reminding the professor that in the Agikuyu nation people wait for the deceased to get buried before any other sharing of spoils can be launched.
"That was a cultural sucker punch where Mr Gachagua set the ground mood by making the government look celebratory of the MP's death for purposes of electoral contest. Cultural issues around the dead are revered in many communities and had Prof Kindiki known better, he would have tamed his tongue" says Kikuyu Council of Elders chairman Mr Wachira Kiago.
Newly elected Ol Kalou MP Sammy Waweru Ngotho is handed his certificate by the IEBC returning officer Anthony Njiraini at Ol Kalou Senior School Tallying Centre on July 17, 2026.
Photo credit: Boniface Mwangi | Nation
Mr Gachagua not only spoke longer than president William Ruto but also gave him and Prof Kindiki a tongue lashing, paraded his loyalists in attendance as well as led a choir to entertain the audience.
According to political analyst Mr Malila Munywoki, Mr Gachagua had already started campaigning as the government said it was paying last respects.
"What hit the government harder was Nyandarua Senator John Methu's confrontation to the President when he declared that he respected the commander in chief but he feared him not. The warrior spirit of the duel was cheekily founded," Mr Munywoki says.
As the government side napped, Mr Gachagua was working for the duel and having Mr Methu as his ground loyalist made his establishment of attack base easy.
“I salute our campaign leaders, Hon. John Methu Gitungati and Hon. Wanjiku Muhia Ngatha, for their outstanding leadership and guidance throughout the three-month campaign. I was deeply impressed by the way you organized and led us,”, Mr Gachagua later acknowledged the Senator’s input in the victory.
According to political scientist Mr John Okumu, Mr Gachagua made Mr Methu an annex of Wamunyoro command center.
"This was after he made Methu the DCP interim Secretary General to make Nyandarua own the party and own the war ahead. It was made to look that by fighting for DCP, they were saving their own son," Mr Okumu said.
Mr Gachagua then launched a narrative that Nyandarua was the home for the freedom fight that won the country its freedom from the colonialist, a place where the Mt Kenya invested its national identity from.
Coupled with his earlier campaigns against the government and demanding that the region severe ties with the UDA that they had earlier in 2022 given their 87 percent of their votes, Mr Gachagua infiltration scheme into the hearts of Ol Kalou voters had been achieved.
"Mr Gachagua then progressed his pet narrative of Making President Ruto the Mt Kenya bogeyman. He successfully made it appear like the by-election was a community war against betrayal and liberation from what he termed as a government that had applied bait and switch method of winning power by use of Mt Kenya only to use that power against the region," said Political analyst Mr Herman Manyora.
Mr Manyora says the government went into the Ol Kalou campaigns being the clear underdog, a position Laikipia East Mr Mwangi Kiunjuri admits.
"It is true we went to Ol Kalou having a starting rating of nine percent. Mr Gachagua had over the past 20 months made it his occupation to batter the government and President Ruto. We were clearly at a disadvantage," Mr Kiunjuri said.
But Mr Kiunjuri says there was no way the government could fail to field a candidate, campaign and face the voters.
DCP Ol Kalou MP-elect Sammy Kamau Ngotho when he met his supporters at St Lwanga Catholic Church in Mirangine, Ol Kalou, Nyandarua County, on July 12, 2026.
Photo credit: Boniface Mwangi | Nation Media Group
"We had our objectives. We wanted to build our nine percent to the highest percentage possible. It has reached 13. We recently had the Mbeere North by-election where the government side got 46 percent. That is an average of 28 percent. It means so far we can raise about 1.5 million votes for president Ruto in the Mountain," he said.
Mr Kiunjuri added that within the next 12 months to the General Election, the percentage can rise to a neck to neck race.
"There comes a time when you have to face reality for what it is. Mt Kenya region appears gone and is not looking back. Much the more we would love to console ourselves through convenient theories, for the government, the figures are bad and if I were to seriously advise President Ruto, his reelection strategy is nowhere in any polling station of Mt Kenya," he said.
When it comes to campaign budget, the government bragged through Mr Moses Kuria that it had unleashed a Sh10 billion plus kitty that covered development projects and other costs.
Nakuru East MP Mr David Gikaria in one of campaign rallies that got him in trouble with IEBC and fined Sh2.5 million, announced that daily budget in all the Ol Kalou five wards was Sh1.2 million for handouts.
That computes to Sh6million per day which multiplied by the 50 days the campaigns raged, translates to Sh300 million, not factoring in what senior government officials including Cabinet Secretaries gave in their numerous visits to the constituency to campaign.
According to a source in the Gachagua campaign think-tank, Mr Gachagua was sending Sh2 million on daily basis to the campaign team.
"Mr Gachagua alone gave us Sh150 million inclusive of voting day expenses. We had received more than Sh180 million from DCP aspirants. Members of the public also fundraised for us. We were not a poor competitor," the source said.
Kipipiri MP Ms Wanjiku Muhia who was Mr Methu's partner in the coordination strategies said the DCP team benefited immensely from grassroots leaders especially MCAs in the Nyandarua County Assembly.
"We were able to maintain a matching presence against the government side. We were spreading liberation messages and need to teach a government gone rogue a political lesson. We told the people that the government cash and goods they were being treated to was their stolen national resources," she said.
She added that the DCP teams managed to make the government generosity to be an extended free of charge entertainment industry where all could walk in, eat and go home with their independent minds intact.
"We also had a very efficient media campaign strategy using vernacular platforms and the social media. Mr Gachagua was personally coordinating the messaging part of our campaigns," she said.
Mr Methu said Mr Gachagua was the unseen general in the battle where even when he kept off ground presence, would call voters live on phone during public rallies and boosted our Mountain and National narratives against our opponent.
Mr Gachagua's persistent calling out the IEBC and security agents on use of goons and rogue police officers kept the voting and tallying on national limelight hence minimizing any chance of monkey business.
Central region Commissioner Mr Joshua Nkanatha admitted that "we are factoring in all those concerns from all the players and we are certainly responding to them in a meticulous way".
Murang'a Senator Joe Nyutu says the DCP campaigns thanks Mr Moses Kuria for his public slur against Mr Ngotho where he dismissed him as an urchin.
DCP's Sammy Ngotho, accompanied by Nyandarua Senator John Methu, Kipipiri MP Wanjiku Muhia, and other leaders, acknowledges supporters during the final campaign rally at Arboretum Grounds in Ol Kalou on July 13, 2026.
Photo credit: Boniface Mwangi | Nation
"Thank you Mr Kuria. Your public good made our ratings to soar. You angered the ground in a beautiful manner to a point the voters fundraised to buy Mr Ngotho a designer suit. When this dust settles, I will personally buy Mr Kuria doses of whatever he consumes...He worked very well against his cause," Mr Nyutu said.
The DCP chair of the council of Eminent Persons Mr Maina Kamanda told Nation that the aspects that secured success was mobilisation of patriotism to guard polling stations against mischief.
"You show the resilience. The people of Ol Kalou were taking every opportunity to prove on camera that protecting their votes was their own responsibility against armed goons coordinated by elected honourable criminals," he said.
He said serious logistical safeguards were enforced to compliment the voters with experienced hands in dealing with confrontations.
"This is to warn the government that we are able to counter any kind of nonsense unleashed against us. That Ol Kalou feat should serve to remind president Ruto that power belongs to the people," he said.
