What Ol Kalou verdict means for Ruto, Gachagua, Kindiki and Uhuru

The biggest political winner is DCP leader Rigathi Gachagua, whose party secured its first National Assembly seat and strengthened his position to spearhead the “Wantam” campaign against President William Ruto in the Mt Kenya region. But former Provincial Commissioner Joseph Kaguthi cautions that the emphatic victory comes with equally weighty responsibilities.

“The Ol Kalou vote was a Mountain referendum. We had all agreed about that. The results are out. The win is Gachagua’s baby to nurse. That is where the trick is,” Mr Kaguthi said. He said the outcome places Mr Gachagua at the centre of efforts to lead the region into the 2027 General Election.

Also Read: This man, Sammy Waweru Ngotho: Profile of Ol Kalou MP-elect

National good

“The win mandates Mr Gachagua to be the battle general to take Mt Kenya to the 2027 General Election. He needs to be more uniting. He cannot afford to be vindictive,” he said.

Mr Kaguthi said the result also affirmed Mr Gachagua’s ability to nurture a new generation of leaders, but warned that he must balance Mt Kenya’s interests with the national good.

“This Ol Kalou win is purely a Mt Kenya issue. We have the national aspect where we need others to pursue common objectives. We have blessed him with our numbers; he should take them to the national table as a building stone for Kenya while safeguarding our interests,” he said.

The mini-poll also cements Mr Gachagua’s standing as one of Mt Kenya’s foremost political figures alongside former President Uhuru Kenyatta. For President Ruto, the outcome raises fresh questions about his standing in a region that overwhelmingly backed him in 2022.

Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya said the President should reflect on whether backing Mr Gachagua’s impeachment in October 2024 was politically prudent.

Also Read: How Gachagua beat Ruto in Ol Kalou

“If the President was honest enough, he must be regretting that rash decision. It gave him a self-inflicted crisis that becomes worse by every dawn,” he said.

Mr Natembeya argued that some of the President’s loyalists had effectively shifted allegiance while remaining within UDA. Although UDA Secretary-General Omar Hassan insisted that the President enjoys a national mandate and that “Ol Kalou is not the people”, analysts say the poor performance in one of UDA’s traditional strongholds should concern the ruling party.

“You cannot get 13 percent in a sample of a region that gave you 87 percent in 2022. The worrying part is that the 13 percent was for a local candidate, meaning the President’s approval could be even lower,” said Manyatta MP Gitonga Mukunji.

Mr Mukunji said the result challenged the perception that President Ruto remains politically invincible.

“He most likely thought President Uhuru Kenyatta was politically weak for failing to impeach him when he served as deputy president,” he said.

Deputy President Kithure Kindiki also faces renewed scrutiny following the by-election. Political scientist Gasper Odhiambo said the result suggests Prof Kindiki is yet to win broad acceptance in Mt Kenya as Mr Gachagua’s successor.

“Prof Kindiki had earlier promised to whitewash Mr Gachagua in Ol Kalou. He cannot run away from the shame of that resounding defeat. The truth is Prof Kindiki has failed his present,” Mr Odhiambo said.

He argued that the outcome could weaken Prof Kindiki’s prospects of remaining President Ruto’s running mate in 2027. “What else can he vie for if dropped as running mate in 2027? Governor, senator or MP? Without appearing to have lost prominence?” he posed.

Also Read: Rise of a super mobiliser: How Methu's ground game overwhelmed UDA in Ol Kalou

Prof Kindiki, however, struck a defiant tone after congratulating Mr Ngotho, noting that Kenya Kwanza had won the Mbeere North by-election. “That makes it a draw and the final match is in 2027,” he said.

Political base

Mr Odhiambo, however, questioned whether the Deputy President’s remarks amounted to asking President Ruto to retain him on the ticket despite his apparent struggles in Mt Kenya.

Those within Kenya Kwanza opposed to Prof Kindiki remaining on the 2027 ticket argue that he has yet to demonstrate he can deliver the region’s vote and that the coalition would be better served by a running mate with a firmer political base.

Former President Uhuru Kenyatta has also come under scrutiny over his influence in Mt Kenya and his role in shaping the national political discourse ahead of the 2027 General Election.

Mr Kenyatta has declared Jubilee a national party anchored in Mt Kenya and endorsed former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i for the presidency. Nominated Senator Karen Nyamu questioned his succession politics.

“Mr Kenyatta is a product of being moulded and endorsed by Mt Kenya elders. When his time came to pass the baton in 2022, he picked Raila Odinga, and now in 2027 he is backing Dr Matiang’i. Does he believe in leaders from Mt Kenya?” she posed.

Some leaders argue that Mr Kenyatta’s failure to nurture a new generation of leaders has contributed to the region’s fragmented political landscape ahead of 2027.

Mr Gachagua on Saturday declared that the Ol Kalou outcome had firmly established DCP as Mt Kenya’s party of choice. Jubilee member Ngunjiri Wambugu said the by-election should prompt soul-searching within the party after its candidate garnered only 198 votes in a seat it previously held.

“We failed to defend a seat that the late Njuguna Kiaraho won with 24,058 votes. That is a demolition,” he said.

However, Jubilee deputy secretary-general Zack Kinuthia maintained that Dr Matiang’i’s candidature should be judged from a national, not regional, perspective.

Former Starehe MP Maina Kamanda said Dr Matiang’i would have to build a political base beyond Mt Kenya.

“Mt Kenya has already been mobilised by Mr Gachagua under DCP, and any other command centre is not welcome,” he said.

The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC), led by chairman Erastus Ethekon, also came under criticism over public confidence in the electoral process.

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