Some of Kenya's major political parties have resorted to negotiated democracy to avert sibling rivalry and nomination fallouts.
Aspirants in the 2027 General Election are being quietly asked to drop their bids, while others are being persuaded to scale back their ambitions in exchange for party officials' endorsements.
At the same time, other outfits have begun to confront nomination nightmares by putting in place systems and safeguards that would ensure free and credible primaries.
Coalitions — which have since become a common feature in Kenya's polls — have also complicated party primaries due to demands for zoning or joint tickets in some electoral areas. Aspirants have in the past been forced to drop out following coalition talks, despite having spent millions in campaigns.
In Nairobi, former Principal Secretary Irungu Nyakera has dropped his gubernatorial bid in favour of the Makadara parliamentary seat, following talks with Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) leader Rigathi Gachagua.
Former Transport Principal Secretary Irungu Nyakera
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Mr Nyakera and Embakasi North MP James Gakuya are among the politicians who had declared interest in the seat on the DCP ticket. Reports indicate that more political bigwigs, including from other parties, are plotting to join the DCP for the race.
Embakasi North Member of Parliament James Mwangi Gakuya.
Photo credit: Dennis Onsongo | Nation Media Group
"After consultations with my political mentors, and more importantly, after listening to the people of Makadara who have asked me to come home and offer myself as their Member of Parliament, I have made the decision to shift my political focus from the Nairobi gubernatorial race to Makadara Constituency," said Mr Nyakera.
Mr Nyakera recently visited Mr Gachagua at his Wamunyoro home in Nyeri. He was accompanied by a delegation from Makadara.
"I thank him for being my political mentor, for his guidance and counsel. I am especially grateful for his blessings as I embark on this new journey to become the next Member of Parliament for Makadara Constituency under the DCP Party," he said.
Nandi Governor Stephen Sang.
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In Nandi, Governor Stephen Sang, who had declared interest in the Aldai MP seat, dropped the bid after talks with President William Ruto . Mr Sang is serving his second and final term as governor.
His decision to drop out of the parliamentary race comes after the incumbent, Marianne Kitany, protested an alleged scheme to shortchange her at the party primaries in favour of the governor.
Aldai MP Maryanne Kitany.
Photo credit: Dennis Onsongo | Nation Media Group
Mr Sang said he had consulted Dr Ruto, who advised him to concentrate on supporting his presidential re-election.
"I had the option of contesting for the Senate or the Aldai parliamentary seat. These options were important, but after consulting the president, he advised me to focus on his re-election in 2027. Therefore, I will be involved in national politics and will not contest for any political position," he said.
Conducting free and fair nominations, however, remains a priority for major parties.
Bungled nominations, voter apathy
Bungled nominations have in the past haunted parties, with disgruntled aspirants bolting to join rivals, while voters have in some instances opted to stay away from elections, leading to voter apathy.
In areas dominated by a single political party, primaries are more competitive since securing the party ticket is as good as winning the election itself. This makes nominations emotive and highly charged.
Past pronouncements by some top party officials, seen as direct endorsements of certain aspirants, have already started threatening major fallouts. Some of the parties have started witnessing defections over fears of manipulated party primaries.
The ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA) — through its National Elections Board (NEB) — has for the last three years been building a system to ensure credible polls.
The electronic system, already up and running, has been deployed in the recent by-elections and tested during the party's grassroots elections. NEB chairperson Anthony Mwaura believes the party has got it right in readiness for the 2027 polls.
The UDA system uses restricted tablets locked to a specific polling station using geo-fencing technology. Mr Mwaura said this is to ensure no out-of-station voting or manipulation.
The system only allows for digital voting. Once a vote has been cast, it is instantly tallied and streamed to a central server. Physical ballots are known to be prone to manipulation, like ballot stuffing.
But the party will still have to confront the high expectations of its aspirants, especially in its strongholds. The outfit will also have to confront ODM's demand for zoning, especially in Nyanza. Agreeing to such a demand would mean locking out some of its aspirants from the region. ODM party leader Oburu Oginga has insisted that UDA should not field candidates in its base of Nyanza.
In the 2022 polls, securing a UDA ticket in Mt Kenya and Rift Valley was near-equivalent to winning an election. Mt Kenya is perceived to have drifted away from the ruling party ahead of next year's elections. The ticket, however, remains competitive in Rift Valley.
ODM, which has in the past suffered the brunt of bungled nominations , is also working to overhaul its system for a credible process. The party has announced plans to borrow lessons from the African National Congress (ANC) of South Africa.
ODM National Chairperson Gladys Wanga told the Nation that the outfit was putting systems in place for a credible process.
"We have the National Elections Coordinating Committee (NECC), whose mandate is to manage internal party elections while ensuring transparency, fairness, and credibility of those processes. It is the oldest and most experienced party electoral body in the country," said Ms Wanga, who is also the Homa Bay Governor.
"It has managed very competitive party primaries in the past. It has been preparing since we celebrated ODM at 20 last year. We are confident it will deliver."
National Assembly Minority Leader Junet Mohammed, who is also the party's Director of Elections, told the Nation that the outfit has committed to getting it right this time. He assured aspirants that only the most popular candidates would secure the ticket through the ballot.
"We have assured our aspirants that we have to get it right when it comes to nomination. Those who want to run on the ticket will face off in a free and fair process," said Mr Mohammed.
DAP-K: We will have open nominations
DAP-K Secretary-General Eseli Simiyu during a past function.
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DAP-K Secretary-General Eseli Simiyu also spoke of the party's plans to ensure credible nominations. He explained that the party may have to negotiate with its 2027 coalition partners over fielding joint candidates in areas where they risk losing if they field multiple candidates.
"We plan to have an open nomination so that the people can have a chance to elect their preferred candidates for various seats," said Mr Simiyu. He said the rules for their primaries could be influenced by coalition agreements, adding that fielding multiple candidates as a coalition had in the past proved counterproductive.
Cases of top party officials seeking nominations themselves have also fuelled fears that other aspirants could be shortchanged to clear the way for them.
In the Siaya Senate race, former Governor Cornel Rasanga has threatened to defect should the party favour Dr Oginga in the nominations. Dr Oginga has declared his interest in defending his seat come 2027, placing him in direct contest with Mr Rasanga.
Wiper dilemma in Machakos
Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka and Machakos Governor Wavinya Ndeti.
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Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka is also facing a major dilemma in Machakos, where he has been accused of endorsing Governor Wavinya Ndeti for a second term.
Mavoko MP Patrick Makau is among Wiper members seeking the party's Machakos gubernatorial ticket for 2027. The MP dropped out of the race in 2022, in an alleged agreement to have Ms Ndeti run for only one term. He recently accused Mr Musyoka of reneging on the deal.
"Even though you (Kalonzo) reneged on your promise for Wavinya to go for one term, let her face me in party primaries," Mr Makau said during a public event in Athi River.
But Machakos Deputy Governor Francis Mwangangi denied the existence of such an agreement. Mr Mwangangi told Mr Makau to prepare for the party primaries, instead of engaging in sympathy-seeking antics.
"That agreement he keeps talking about does not exist. I would advise him to go on the ground and talk with people in readiness for the party primaries, instead of the sideshows," said Mr Mwangangi.
Former State House Chief of Staff Nzioka Waita recently joined UDA after accusing Mr Musyoka of endorsing Governor Ndeti, consequently denying him a chance to contest on the ticket.
Mr Nzioka Waita during a past interview.
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In Ford Kenya, National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang'ula's decision to endorse former Cabinet Secretary Susan Nakhumicha as the Ford Kenya candidate for the 2027 Trans Nzoia gubernatorial race has unsettled other aspirants.
Mr Wetang'ula endorsed Ms Nakhumicha on June 21 during a meeting attended by community elders, saying she was the strongest candidate to unseat Governor George Natembeya.
"She has demonstrated the highest ability and strength to unseat Governor Natembeya and, as Ford Kenya, Kenya Kwanza and the broad-based government, she is our preferred candidate for the seat," Mr Wetang'ula said.
Kenya’s representative to UN-Habitat Dr Susan Nakhumicha.
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Former Kiminini MP Chris Wamalwa, who lost to Governor George Natembeya in 2022, has since ditched Ford Kenya for UDA.
"He wants to choose the governor for the people of Trans-Nzoia. We tell him to take his political projects to Bungoma. It is the people of Trans Nzoia who will choose their governor in 2027," said Mr Wamalwa.
