President William Ruto addressing a gathering during the foundation stone laying ceremony of Khwisero Mother-Child Level Four Hospital in Khwisero, Kakamega County, on January 22, 2025.
President William Ruto is on Day 3 of his weeklong “development tour” of the Coast, just like his recent visits to North Eastern and Western, in what analysts say is a pattern that could be in reaction to the fallout with erstwhile deputy Rigathi Gachagua.
Since plans to impeach Mr Gachagua were made public in October 2024 and eventually executed at the end of the month, President Ruto has only been to the populous Mt Kenya region, where his estranged deputy comes from, twice: first on November 16 in Embu during the consecration and installation of Bishop Peter Kimani Ndung’u as well as December 9 when he was hosted by former President Uhuru Kenyatta at his Gatundu home in Kiambu County.
President William Ruto pays a courtesy call to former President Uhuru Kenyatta at his Gatundu home on December 9, 2024.
According to the Head of State’s publicly available diary, the President made at least 46 visits, styled as “development tours,” in at least 30 counties — excluding Nairobi where he was in 28 engagements over the same period — in a period of 145 days since October 1, 2024 when it became clear Mr Gachagua would be impeached.
Since then, the President has been to Coast counties of Mombasa, Kwale, Kilifi, Taita-Taveta, where he has pitched tent again this week and is expected to add to Tana River and Lamu in this stretch.
President William Ruto (center) arrives for the official opening of the Kilifi International Investment Conference at Vipingo in Kilifi County on November 5, 2024.
He has also been to the Western vote bloc and visited Kakamega, Bungoma, Busia, Vihiga, and Trans Nzoia, as well as opposition leader Raila Odinga’s Nyanza bastion of Kisumu, Homa Bay, Kisii and Siaya. There is also one visit each in Makueni and Machakos, both in Kalonzo Musyoka’s Ukambani vote bloc.
In his Rift Valley bastion, President Ruto has been to Bomet, Turkana, Uasin Gishu, Samburu, Laikipia, Kericho, Kajiado, Baringo, Narok, Elgeyo Marakwet, and Nakuru. In the North Eastern tour early this month, President Ruto visited Mandera, Garissa, Isiolo, and Wajir.
An analysis by Sunday Nation also revealed that Dr Ruto attended more than 15 church services in various parts of the country, but only one in Mount Kenya during the same period.
Apart from church services, the President has also balanced such engagements by holding meetings with leadership of various religious denominations. He had four meetings with church delegations, including the Akorinos.
The President, known for his unmatched energy compared to his peers, rarely rests and his back-to-back meetings, tours and hosting of delegations at State House or his Narok home, were mostly political in what is seen a wider strategy to secure a second term.
University of Nairobi’s Prof Winnie Mitullah sees the current political environment in Mt Kenya and subsequently the interests in other regions as a President seeking to use his development tours to woo the regions.
“What he is doing in other parts of the country is not development but politics since the small projects can be launched by Cabinet secretaries or other government officials. Definitely he is keeping off the Mountain because the ground is hostile and is leveraging on the votes he can gather from across the country to help him in re-election. But I am sure he is strategic and trying to wait for an opportune time to reach out to the Mountain people,” said Prof Mitullah.
Dr Obora Okoth, a political analyst, also concurs, arguing that Dr Ruto was avoiding a perceived hostile area for him politically, which to him is a good decision.
“The President is simply avoiding being embarrassed and frustrated by the electorate, owing to his reduced popularity in the Mountain. This, however, does not mean he has ignored the Central Kenya people altogether. He is re-engineering himself so that he can find a way back into their hearts again,” said Dr Okoth.
Both analysts have dismissed the possibility of Deputy President Kithure Kindiki convincing the entire Mountain region to rally behind Dr Ruto again if Mr Gachagua continues with his robust political activities.
“Efforts by Prof Kindiki may not yield much because his predecessor is doing a lot of damage by playing the victim and attracting the sympathy of his people rather than embracing the government because they are still angry and bitter with the perceived Ruto betrayal. If he is to retain some votes, it may not be much for President Ruto unless something dramatic happens,” said Dr Okoth.
Dr Okoth even believes that the recently appointed Cabinet secretaries — William Kabogo (ICT), Mutahi Kagwe (Agriculture) and Lee Kinyanjui (Trade and Investment) may not face the people directly and woo them into government — at least not now.
The Deputy President has, however, visited the region, going to Nyeri and Embu and meeting various delegations in Karen.
Dr Okoth said that if the going gets tough and Mr Gachagua maintains a grip on the region, the President may just decide to forget the Mountain altogether and focus on new allies like his political mentor, the late Daniel arap Moi did.
“Ruto is a schemer and is likely using the Moi script where you appoint a few individuals from a region and make them happy and loyal like what he did with people like Joseph Kamotho (a one-time powerful Kanu secretary- general) while focusing on other regions for votes. Moi survived for long time without Mount Kenya and Nyanza,” said Dr Okoth.
In addition, ODM leader Raila Odinga is considered an important factor as Dr Ruto continues to build new alliances in his so-called broad-based government.
Alego-Usonga MP Samuel Atandi, who was the biggest critic now turned friend of Dr Ruto, concurs with Dr Okoth.
“The President’s visit to our Nyanza region should not be misconstrued by other people as if they are being shunned. We have been marginalised for many decades by previous presidents. What the President is doing now is right because he is reaching out to those who had been abandoned. He sees Kenya as belonging to everyone,” said Mr Atandi.
President William Ruto in Migori County on Sunday October 8 during his four-day tour of Nyanza region.
But former DP Gachagua has in recent weeks poured cold water on Dr Ruto’s overtures in other regions.
"The President is coming to your area to trick you to be his 2027 allies after the Mountain has revolted and I have had it locked. He is coming there to launch transformers and selectively give out cane bonuses. We were tricked as a region where he would salute us in our language and knew every road and market by name. Do not fall in the trap we fell into, you will regret it," said Mr Gachagua in an interview with vernacular radio stations in Western Kenya.
For his part, the President’s core message during the tours has been that he is determined to develop all parts of the country without discrimination, telling off those whom he accuses of have a sense of entitlement.
On church services, Dr Okoth feels this is also a master strategy for the President who has always fashioned himself as a man of God, saying he usually goes for the ordinary clergy and not sophisticated ones because he will wield much control over them.
“While one would go for the originally known denominations such as the Catholics, Adventists or Anglicans, he also includes indigenous churches that have grassroots appeal such as the Akorino because he knows they have huge cult-like following and can also be easily manipulated,” said Dr Okoth.
Since most of the time he is within Nairobi, the President has had 28 functions, some within State House and others in various constituencies in the city.
A delegation of leaders drawn from Western region pose for a picture with President William Ruto at State House in Nairobi on August 19, 2023.
During the period in review, Dr Ruto hosted at least 21 delegations and dignitaries at State House which included heads of states. Some of the meetings were done at his Narok home. He also made 11 foreign trips, mostly in Africa.
Political analyst Daniel Orogo said that Ruto’s political outreach in Western, Coast, and North Eastern regions is proving effective, particularly his alliance with ODM, which could secure Nyanza and Western Kenya votes, along with increased turnout in North Eastern Kenya.
roudia@ke.nationmedia.com
