President William Ruto’s unexpected political pact with ODM leader Raila Odinga has upended Kenya’s delicate power balance, sparking fresh anxiety within both camps and unsettling the country’s political chessboard ahead of 2027.
The deal, emanating from a political pact signed in March this year, has quickly evolved into a broader realignment with ripple effects across government and opposition.
Within Kenya Kwanza, some allies see Mr Odinga’s closeness to Dr Ruto as a threat to their influence, fearing the opposition chief could edge them out of the President’s inner circle.
On the ODM side, Mr Odinga’s move has stirred unease among some loyalists who view cooperation with Dr Ruto as a betrayal of the struggle they have waged against Kenya Kwanza.
Key lieutenants worry that their relevance could diminish as Mr Odinga is increasingly seen to align with State House priorities.
Some fear that the pact risks weakening ODM’s grassroots mobilisation, especially in regions where anti-government sentiment remains strong.
Beyond the two camps, the Ruto–Raila understanding is shifting the opposition–government dynamics in Parliament, softening criticism of the Executive and redrawing political alliances.
With both leaders now pulling levers of power from the same corner, smaller parties and ambitious politicians are left recalibrating their next moves, wary of being caught on the wrong side of a political marriage whose long-term implications remain uncertain.
President Willam Ruto and ODM party leader Raila Odinga during the MoU signing event at KICC on March 7, 2025.
Photo credit: Francis Nderitu | Nation Media Group
But while the pact promises stability at the top, it threatens to scatter casualties across both ODM and the larger Azimio la Umoja One Kenya Coalition and UDA, including; the entire Kenya Kwanza Alliance — thus unsettling long-nurtured ambitions.
Political analysts say the pact between the two leaders could unleash a trail of casualties — from Mr Odinga’s trusted lieutenants to Dr Ruto’s loyal defenders — all sacrificed at the altar of 2027 survival politics.
But even before the deal was cemented last year, the then Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua became the first casualty of the Ruto-Raila camaraderie, when their troops in both the National Assembly and the Senate jointly voted overwhelmingly to have him impeached.
As soon as he was kicked out of office in October last year, President Ruto nominated then Interior Cabinet Secretary Prof Kithure Kindiki , his longtime ally, whom he showered with praises during his swearing-in at Kenyatta International Conference Centre (KICC) on November 1, 2024.
But with the looming Ruto-Raila, or rather, UDA-ODM alliance, Prof Kindiki’s position could be up for grabs in the entire 2027 political horse-trading.
ODM National Executive Council member and Secretary for Resource Mobilisation Jared Okello — who is also the Nyando MP — argues that ODM, now being a major partner of UDA, would lay claim on the DP post “as our irreducible minimum.”
“As the biggest party, we shall negotiate for president first. The irreducible minimum will be deputy president. The rest will be half cabinet, half PSs, half ambassadorial postings, half state agencies, including parastatals,” Mr Okello told Nation .
“We are in the process of anchoring Nadco report, and that will create positions of prime minister and two deputies that will resolve the issue of political inclusivity,” Gem MP Elisha Odhiambo told Nation.
The current constitution, however, does not provide for the position of prime minister, something that forced President Ruto to create the position of Prime Cabinet Secretary — an elevated CS, and handed it to Mr Musalia Mudavadi .
Insiders say ODM could as well demand the post, and this would mean Mr Mudavadi paving the way for Mr Odinga, or any person from his camp.
Both Mr Mudavadi and Prof Kindiki have, however, praised the Ruto-Raila deal, looking at it on the premise of stabilising the country and an assurance of victory in 2027.
“If you look at William Ruto, me, and now that we have His Excellency Raila Odinga on our team, do we look like people who can be defeated in an election?” Prof Kindiki posed during one of his empowerment programs in Nyanza.
Other figures whose positions could be at high risk are; both National Assembly and Senate speakers — Moses Wetang’ula and Amason Kingi, respectively.
“These are top-tier positions that, in the case of coalition building between Ruto and Raila, will be placed on the table and probably go to Raila’s side. If that happens, obviously the two — Wetang’ula and Kingi will lose the high-profile seats,” says advocate Chris Omore.
National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula during the Kenya Kwanza Kisumu County Tuk Tuk Sacco empowerment event on August 2.
Photo credit: Alex Odhiambo | Nation Media Group
“Wetang’ula cannot be a neutral referee in Parliament when he still wears the uniform of one of the teams playing in the field,” Mr Odinga said during a funeral in Bungoma early last year.
Prof Gitile Naituli of Multi-Media University of Kenya argues that the Raila–Ruto political marriage is essentially an elite survival pact rather than a value-based coalition.
“Its first casualties will be Raila Odinga’s traditional base, especially within ODM, who feel betrayed by the sudden alliance with a president they fiercely opposed in 2022. This will weaken Raila’s moral authority and fragment his long-standing political machinery,” Prof Naituli says.
President William Ruto chairs a joint ODM–Kenya Kwanza Parliamentary Group meeting in Karen alongside opposition leader Raila Odinga on August 18, 2025.
Photo credit: PCS
For Mr Dismas Mokua, a political analyst; “President Ruto and Mr Odinga have demonstrated capacity to offer pleasure to political loyalists and inflict pain on rebels, thus rebels without pecuniary war chests and tribal bases will bleed and form part of Kenya’s political history.”
He argues that rebels from ODM and UDA who don’t have solid political capital and financial resources will be the principal casualties because both President Ruto and Mr Odinga’s core bases are in a good part emotional and irrational.
ODM Secretary General Edwin Sifuna and Embakasi East MP Babu Owino, who have openly opposed Mr Odinga’s working arrangement with President Ruto, could be living on borrowed time.
Whereas Mr Owino holds no position in ODM, several pro-government leaders within the party have called for Mr Sifuna’s resignation or sacking for what they have termed as “going against the party’s official stand.”
Mr Sifuna and Mr Owino have since crafted a possible Third Force — distinct from the Ruto-Raila camp and Mr Gachagua’s united opposition- to chart a new political path.
Dubbed Kenya Moja, the team that brings together youthful legislators from across the political divide has threatened to upset the current political order.
“I have been overwhelmed by the outpouring of support from Kenyans all around the country and the world. I just want to assure them that we hear what they are saying and we shall do whatever it takes not to be a disappointment to their hopes and dreams,” Mr Sifuna told Nation.
The Nairobi senator has publicly criticised his ODM party, noting that it has lost its once-sharp voice on issues such as devolution and civil liberties.
During his July interview on Citizen TV, he noted that he still believes ODM can regain its moral compass.
“The reason I will not resign yet is because I have not given up yet, I have not given up on members of the ODM,” he said. “On the day that I give up, I will tell you, I will say it publicly that I have lost the battle to rescue this party and to bring it back to where it was.”
Mr Sifuna will, however, be the man to watch as the ODM party prepares to hold its National Delegates Convention (NDC) in October this year.
Mr Owino has also insisted that he was keen on running for the Nairobi gubernatorial seat, “with or without ODM ticket.”
Prof Gitile Naituli, a political analyst and university don, says that opposition figures who positioned themselves as alternatives to Mr Odinga will be displaced or forced to recalibrate.
“Leaders like Kalonzo Musyoka , Martha Karua , and others who had hoped to inherit the anti-Ruto mantle may now appear sidelined, though they could gain momentum if Raila’s supporters defect in anger,” says Prof Naituli.
He adds; “On Ruto’s side, the biggest casualties will be his lieutenants who built their political capital on fighting Raila. For them, it will be a bitter pill to swallow, and many risk political irrelevance if they cannot adapt quickly.”
“Ultimately, the real loser could be the ordinary Kenyan: instead of a vibrant opposition holding government to account, we risk a situation where elite accommodation silences dissent while the cost of living, unemployment, and corruption remain unaddressed.”
In Mr Odinga’s Nyanza backyard, several leaders who had dashed to President Ruto’s corner before the Ruto-Raila MoU had been viewed as rebels and could suffer as a result of the changes.
From left: ODM MPs Caroli Omondi, Phelix Odiwuor aka Jalango, Elisha Odhiambo, Tom Ojienda and Gideon Ochanda.
Photo credit: Nation Media Group
The leaders include: former Nairobi Governor Evans Kidero, Kisumu Senator Prof Tom Ojienda, among other legislators and ex-party officials.
Mr Mokua says; “another set of casualties are politicians who are planning to run on President Ruto’s policy challenges. A number of President Ruto’s policy reforms in health and education have had turbulence and form fertile ground for the 2027 elections. These politicians will suffer in the event that President Ruto’s policy interventions pay dividends before the 2027 general election.”
