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Ruto leads in popularity poll, Babu Owino tipped for Luo kingpin after Raila death - Infotrak
President William Ruto speaks during the World Minority Rights Day celebrations at State House, Nairobi, on December 18, 2025.
President William Ruto would beat United Opposition candidates if the General Election were held today, a new survey by Infotrak shows.
The survey indicates that Dr Ruto commands a 28 per cent popularity rating, followed by former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i (13 per cent), Wiper Patriotic Front’s Kalonzo Musyoka (12 per cent), Embakasi East MP Babu Owino (7 per cent), former deputy president Rigathi Gachagua (5 per cent), People's Liberation Party (PLP)’s Martha Karua (2 per cent) and former Chief Justice David Maraga (2 per cent).
Others are governors Gladys Wanga (Homa Bay) and George Natembeya (Trans Nzoia) at one per cent each, Kiharu MP Ndindi Nyoro (1 per cent), while George Wajackoyah and Nairobi senator Edwin Sifuna tie at 0.2 per cent.
The report indicates that 27 per cent of Kenyans polled were undecided on whom to vote for as President.
In terms of political parties, Dr Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA) is the most popular, commanding 23 per cent of voters polled, followed by former Prime Minister Raila Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) at 19 per cent.
This is the first time UDA has beat ODM in the party popularity contest.
The parties had tied at 16 per cent each in August study, 38-16 in September 2024 and 34-17 in July 2024.
Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua poses for a photograph after unveiling his new political outfit, the Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP), at the party headquarters in the Lavington, Nairobi, on May 15, 2025.
Mr Gachagua’s Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP) has a six per cent popularity rating.
Former President Uhuru Kenyatta’s Jubilee Party has a five per cent approval rating, while Wiper Patriotic Front commands four per cent.
If elections were held today, Dr Ruto would receive 76 per cent of the votes in North Eastern, Rift Valley (42 per cent), Nyanza (30 per cent), Coast (29 per cent), Western (23 per cent), Eastern (17 per cent), Nairobi (16 per cent) and Central (14 per cent).
His closest rival, Dr Matiang’i, would get 18 per cent in Nyanza, Rift Valley (17 per cent), Eastern (16 per cent), Western (15 per cent), Nairobi (11 per cent), Coast (10 per cent) and North Eastern (0 per cent).
Mr Musyoka would get 20 per cent in Eastern, Nairobi (17 per cent), Coast and Western (11 per cent), Rift Valley (10 per cent), Nyanza (9 per cent), Central (8 per cent) and North Eastern (2 per cent).
The poll, which was conducted between December 19 and 20, 2025, sampled 1,000 people, whom Infotrak said represent the universe of adult Kenyans aged 18 years and above at the time of the survey.
“The sampling frame was designed using population proportionate to size (PPS), guided by the 2019 population census. The margin of error was plus or minus three at a 95 per cent confidence level,” the pollster said in a report.
“The survey covered all the 47 counties and eight regions of Kenya. To ensure national representativeness, the distribution of the survey sample across the regions was proportionately allocated.”
Embakasi East MP Babu Owino, Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna and Saboti MP Caleb Amisi in Nairobi during World Teachers Day celebrations on October 5, 2025
The report shows that 33 per cent of those polled prefer Babu Owino to succeed the late Mr Odinga as the Luo kingpin, while 10 per cent prefer Raila’s brother, Oburu Oginga.
In this section, the respondents were asked: Following the untimely demise of the late Raila Odinga, who do you think is most likely to emerge as a leading political figure representing the Luo community?
Other names in the Luo kingpin race were Homa Bay governor Gladys Wanga (7 per cent), her Siaya counterpart James Orengo (4 per cent), Energy Cabinet Secretary Opiyo Wandayi and Interior Cabinet Secretary Raymond Omollo (2 per cent each), Treasury Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi, Kisumu governor Anyang Nyong’o, Raila’s daughter, Winnie, and lawyer Miguna Miguna (1 per cent each). At least 37 per cent said they were not sure.
The survey also showed that a majority of 32 per cent of voters preferred the broad-based government led by Dr Ruto in terms of political party formation or coalitions.
The United Opposition of Mr Gachagua, Mr Musyoka, Ms Karua and Mr Wamalwa commands 22 per cent of those sampled, while the Kenya Moja alliance led by Governor Natembeya, Mr Sifuna, Mr Owino, Gathoni Wamuchomba and Mr Nyoro has 17 per cent.
Githunguri MP Gathoni Wamuchomba during an interview at her Membley office in Kiambu County on October 1, 2025. She believes the women's movement should resolve its internal challenges before focusing on male engagement in gender equality efforts.
Those who do not support any of the three political formations stood at 29 per cent.
The broad-based government has huge popularity in North Eastern (88 per cent), Rift Valley (39 per cent), Nyanza (38 per cent), Coast (36 per cent), Western (31 per cent), Eastern (23 per cent), Nairobi (16 per cent) and Central (13 per cent).
The United Opposition has a huge following in Central (31 per cent), Eastern (36 per cent), Nairobi (25 per cent), Coast (20 per cent), Rift Valley and Western (16 per cent), and Nyanza (9 per cent).
Kenya Moja has the highest support in Nyanza (26 per cent), Nairobi (25 per cent), Rift Valley and Western (18 per cent), Eastern (14 per cent), Coast (13 per cent) and North Eastern (2 per cent).
Central recorded the highest number of Kenyans who do not support any of the three political formations at 36 per cent, followed by Western (35 per cent), Nairobi (34 per cent), Coast (30 per cent), Eastern (27 per cent), Rift Valley (26 per cent) and North Eastern (10 per cent).
Factors shaping voter choice ahead of 2027 include the cost of living (46 per cent), anti-corruption and healthcare issues (27 per cent), education (26 per cent), youth unemployment (25 per cent), leadership integrity (23 per cent), economic management (21 per cent), security (16 per cent), devolution (11 per cent) and affordable housing (3 per cent).
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