Political deal-making has kicked off ahead of 2027 General Elections as key players position themselves looking to leverage new partnerships, patch old alliances, and curry favour with diverse voting blocs.
The political chessboard has been scrambled following the impeachment of former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, signalling a new phase of intensive coalition-building in the quest for power and influence ahead of 2027.
President William Ruto, who fell out with his former deputy Mr Gachagua, is leveraging on a new alliance with his 2022 opponent, veteran politician Raila Odinga, to retain power in the next polls.
This comes as Mr Gachagua's allies have started acquiring new political parties amid talks of a possible coalition with opposition leaders led by Wiper boss Kalonzo Musyoka.
Mr Kenyatta, Mr Odinga and Mr Musyoka were in the same camp in the 2022 polls under Azimio la Umoja One Kenya alliance, together with Narc Kenya leader Martha Karua and DAP-Kenya’s Eugene Wamalwa, both whom have started a process to leave the coalition.
Narc Kenya party issued notice to exit from the coalition in July while DAP-K announced its plan to exit last week, signaling their prospects for new working alliances.
“Kindly take note that our stay in Azimio la Umoja One Kenya Coalition is not tenable due to the prevailing political developments,” Ms Karua said in a letter addressed to the coalition secretary general Junet Mohammed by Narc Kenya acting secretary general Asha Bashir in July.
Mr Wamalwa on the other hand said they have initiated the process of exiting the coalition stating that their stay in the opposition coalition is no longer tenable.
"We cannot stay and we no longer find it tenable being in a relationship with people who are no longer like-minded with us," he said, in reference to Mr Odinga’s ODM which donated its key members to President Ruto’s Cabinet.
Talks of a 2027 political movement uniting President Ruto with Mr Odinga have persisted, with close allies of the two leaders hinting at possible cooperation.
The two leaders have recently displayed camaraderie with the Head of State leading campaigns for Mr Odinga’s quest for the chairmanship of the African Union Commission (AUC).
The debate for their planned coalition was first ignited by Mr Odinga's allies during President Ruto's Nyanza tour in August, before the Head of State himself reiterated in Kakamega the possibility of ODM and his UDA party working together.
During ODM National Chairperson Gladys Wanga's thanksgiving ceremony in Homa Bay attended by Mr Odinga and some Cabinet Secretaries and government officials last Sunday, former CS Moses Kuria, a senior economic advisor in President Ruto's administration let the cat out of the bag, and announced the coming of a major political movement.
"Apart from the economic calculations I'm making in government, there's another political calculation that I'm making.
"I never go wrong...what I can see ahead is that in 2027, a new national movement, same as the 2002 Rainbow moment, is loading and those with brains should join because you will be locked out," Mr Kuria said.
He was referring to the National Alliance Rainbow Coalition (Narc) which propelled former President Mwai Kibaki to power.
The movement had Mr Kibaki, Mr Odinga, former Vice President Kijana Wamalwa, Narc leader Charity Ngilu, the late Prof George Saitoti, former Vice President Moody Awori, Kalonzo Musyoka among other political luminaries.
President Ruto, who has since tapped his deputy Prof Kithure Kindiki to fill the void left by Mr Gachagua and help him galvanize support both in government and UDA party as his principal assistant, has also hinted at working with Mr Odinga in future.
While attending a thanksgiving ceremony of Cooperatives and Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises Development Cabinet Secretary Wycliffe Oparanya in Kakamega in September, Dr Ruto said that having been a member of ODM party, the manifesto of the orange outfit and his UDA have similar clauses which makes it easier for the two formations to join hands.
“Some of the common clauses in Kenya Kwanza’s manifesto and that of ODM include the Universal Health Coverage, Housing Programme, Small and Medium Enterprises Development among others,” the President said.
UDA and ODM, the president holds, are one and the same thing considering that he served as the ODM deputy party leader and thus understands a lot about the orange party.
“I thank my brother Raila Odinga for accepting to work with me. We want to work together and bring the country’s interest forward. There comes a time when the prosperity, transformation and unity of the country comes fast,” the Head of State added.
And last Month, while addressing ODM delegates in Mombasa, Mr Odinga also hinted at possible collaboration with the government, insisting that any such talks must, however, follow a national conversation to address pertinent issues affecting Kenyans.
“We have not joined any coalition with Kenya Kwanza and we are saying that if we have to, we must have a national conversation to deal with many outstanding issues including the constitution which has not been addressed,” Mr Odinga said.
But for now, Mr Odinga insisted that ODM has no coalition agreement with Dr Ruto’s side and only donated its experts to help stabilise the Kenya Kwanza government.
The other faction led by Mr Musyoka, Nation has learned of a series of private meetings involving Mr Gachagua, the Wiper leader (Mr Musyoka), and DAP-K leader Mr Wamalwa as they also begin strategising against President Ruto, who will be seeking re-election in 2027.
The three leaders are said to have met at least twice after Mr Gachagua’s impeachment, according to sources within their circles.
In these meetings, the leaders are reportedly considering forming a new election vehicle.
Kiambu Senator Karungo Thang’wa, a close ally of Mr Gachagua, said there are possibilities of the former DP making a deal with other regions to increase the chances of success.
He disclosed that Mr Gachagua and his allies will soon be closing ranks with key leaders from across the country to field a formidable force able to upset the current political arrangement.
“We have friends, and they are many. They are willing to join us and battle from the same 2027 terraces. That requires time and strategy. President Ruto started scheming against his boss, Uhuru Kenyatta, in 2013 and had 10 years of organising himself. We only have two years,” he said.
Mr Odinga’s allies on the other hand have been mulling a future political coalition with President Ruto.
Siaya senator Dr Oburu Oginga, the elder brother of Mr Odinga argues that nothing would stop them from working with the Head of State if he delivers on his pledges.
Speaking against the backdrop of president Ruto’s visit to Nyanza region in August, they said they had worked before with President Ruto in ODM and will be ready to work with him once again.
Nation has established that if all goes well and Mr Odinga successfully clinches the chairmanship of the African Union Commission (AUC) in February next year’s election, then his team and that of the Head of State will likely strike a 2027 deal.
In the deal, they are expected to draw a power-sharing formula that will incorporate ODM and the president’s UDA.
Dr Oginga declared that the ODM leader has since embraced President Ruto, adding that the Luo nation will be ready to pay his 2007 political debt should he make his promises a reality and involve the community in employment in his administration.
“He has received a welcome in the Luo nation more than any other time he has been around. This is because Raila has embraced him and I think it is not bad kurudisha mkono (pay a political debt),” Dr Oginga said.
He noted that President Ruto played a major role in 2007 in making Mr Odinga Prime Minister of Kenya.
“He did not just support him by word of mouth but mobilized people in the Rift Valley who voted for him man to man yet we did not give him much in the last election,” Dr Oginga said.
He went on: “…but we are telling him that as things move, let us continue to talk and negotiate and let our people feel the government, let them feel they are also part of the government.
“We have given out our cream of the party. We have given him our two deputy party leaders (Hassan Joho and Wycliffe Oparanya), we have given him John Mbadi who was our chairman, as well as Opiyo Wandayi who was minority leader in parliament, that’s the top most cream from our party and we want them to work for Kenyans.”
Dr Oginga wants president Ruto to ensure the community is integrated in government, in employment in all sectors of government, “so that Luos feel they are part and parcel of the government.”
National Assembly Minority Leader Junet Mohamed, a close confidant of Mr Odinga, had also hinted at the possibility of working with the Ruto administration.
He told the Head of State to ensure Mr Odinga wins the chairmanship of the African Union Commission (AUC).
“Raila’s AU quest is very important to us and if we secure that post, we shall make more declarations going forward,” he told president Ruto during the thanks giving ceremony for Energy Cabinet Secretary Opiyo Wandayi in August.
At the ceremony, Cabinet Secretary for Mining and Blue Economy Hassan Joho declared that the ODM team was now part of government.
“I want to say for the record that we are now in government. I can feel it and I have no plans of leaving today, tomorrow or in future.
“Wale ambao hawaamini wajue hii safari ni ya masafa marefu (Those in doubt should understand that this is a long journey). We shall walk the journey together,” Mr Joho said.
But on Sunday even after Mr Kuria spoke of the coming of the major political movement, Mr Odinga steered clear of the talks only maintaining that he was not leaving local politics despite gunning for the chairmanship of the AUC post.
He told his supporters to expect to see him engaging in local politics despite his ambitions at the continental level.
“I will not go forever. I am here to stay,” he said.
ODM party made leadership changes where it appointed Kisumu Governor Prof Anyang' Nyong'o as the interim party leader and Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga as the chairperson to replace John Mbadi who was appointed Treasury Cabinet Secretary.
Despite Mr Odinga concentrating on the contest for the AU seat, he said he may not vie for the continental post forever.
“I may be going to AU but I am not going forever. I am here to stay,” the former prime minister said.
