The Sunday Nation has learned that the Ruto-Raila reform pact has evolved from a mere stabilising tool into the framework of a grand coalition for 2027, with ODM and UDA preparing for a shared political future.
Junet Mohamed, the National Assembly Minority Leader, has revealed that half of the 10-point pact has already been implemented. He emphasised that the full execution of the remaining commitments would naturally lead to a structured coalition between the two parties.
Mohamed’s declarations mirror the forthright position of ODM leader Oburu Oginga, who took over after Raila’s death last month.
“ODM must be in government,” he said, framing the broad-based arrangement as both a current necessity and a future strategy.
During an interview with the Nation on Saturday, Agnes Zani, the chairperson of the committee on the implementation of the 10-point agenda (COIN-10), and Javas Bigambo, the vice chairperson, reported tangible progress.
With President Ruto and UDA touting their sweeping by-election victories as proof that their approach is resonating nationwide, the framework of Kenya’s next mega-coalition appears to be slowly but surely taking shape.
“Governments in this country are formed through coalitions,” said Mr Mohamed. “If the ten-point agenda is implemented and this broad-based arrangement delivers for Kenyans, then we can form a coalition. ODM was not formed as an NGO. It was formed to gain political power.”
Mr Mohamed said that he and Dr Oginga had met with Dr Zani and her team, who have reported progress. The Zani-led team reports to the two parties every two months and filed reports on August 18 and October 6. The next report is due on 6 December, and the final report is due on March 6, the day before the anniversary of the deal.
“It is for a fact, not insinuation, that Baba left us in the broad-based government,” Mr Mohamed said. “If the remaining 50 per cent of the agenda is implemented, then we will have completed everything that was agreed, and we will be very happy as a party.”
President William Ruto shares a light moment with Siaya Governor James Orengo and Senator Oburu Oginga at Jaramogi Oginga Odinga University of Science and Technology on January 14, 2023.
Photo credit: Tonny Omondi | Nation Media Group
The 10-point agenda spans inclusivity, devolution, public debt audit, youth empowerment, constitutionalism, equity in public appointments, and reparations for victims of protest-related violence between 2017 and 2023.
Mohamed, the Suna East MP, revealed that a major stumbling block in implementation is a court case that halted the committee tasked with compensating families of young people killed or injured in protests.
“We request the Judiciary to dispense with that case urgently so that families can get compensation. We cannot compensate lives, but at least reparations will help them,” he said.
He also highlighted the progress made on devolution—a budget increase from Sh385 billion to Sh415 billion—and ODM’s push to raise it further to Sh450 billion as Odinga had envisioned.
Dr Oginga recently gave this statement an ideological clarity. “All political parties are formed to capture power,” he said. “As ODM, we want power. There is no party in the world that is formed to stay in the opposition.”
He went on: “How can we implement our policies if we don’t have power and only go for demonstrations? ODM is not excluded from the desire to be in government—now or in a coalition in the future.”
President Ruto: ODM will either form or be part of the next government
Dr Zani, on her part, told Sunday Nation yesterday that the committee’s work is on schedule, with structured reporting to the principals every two months.
“At the moment, we are mapping stakeholders so that we can begin engagement forums,” the former nominated senator said. “We’ve been internally looking at the 10-point agenda, assessing indicators and stakeholders. We are ready to begin collecting feedback and presenting it.”
The committee’s final, comprehensive report will be unveiled on March 7 next year—exactly a year after the MoU was signed. Insiders in both ODM and UDA intimated to Sunday Nation that this date could become a watershed moment in shaping the 2027 coalition landscape.
“My work is to look at the 10-point agenda, collect data, and give information. What political parties do with that data is their decision.”
She did not, however, deny the possibility of a coalition between the two parties based on their report.
The vice chairperson,Mr Bigambo, described the 10-point agenda as the “taproot” of the UDA–ODM political architecture.
“It is nine months since the MoU was entered into, and both sides are conscious of the urgency of implementation,” he said.
He listed milestones already achieved: appointment of a panel of experts on protest victims’ compensation, passage and operationalisation of the IEBC (Amendment) Act, 2024, full reconstitution of the IEBC, stabilisation of production costs and commodity prices, assent to the Persons with Disabilities Act, 2025 and additional allocations to counties. Others are; roll-out of NYOTA and Climate WorX youth empowerment programmes, signing of the Conflict of Interest Act, 2025, progress on national debt restructuring and adoption of e-procurement to curb graft.
“The 10-point agenda is consciously designed to roll out, transform and codify reforms that lead to economic, social and political changes,” he said.
Mr Bigambo argued that the agenda expands the meaning of economic justice and ensures no region is left to “eat crumbs” from the national development table.
His remarks reinforce Mr Mohamed’s claim that the agenda, if fully implemented, creates a natural corridor toward a grand coalition. The Ruto administration is equally framing recent political victories as proof that the broad-based model is working.
UDA Secretary General Hassan Omar hailed the party’s strong showing in the by-elections; winning 12 seats directly, and with broad-based partners adding another six for a total of 18 out of 24.
“These results show, without equivocation, that the broad-based government is what Kenyans want,” Mr Omar said Friday. “We have secured an almost super-majority.” To UDA, the mini polls offer political currency that the collaboration with ODM is positively resonating with voters.
But despite these overtures and the committee’s and Mr Mohamed’s optimism, ODM is still grappling with internal contradictions that could jolt the deal.
ODM deputy party leader Godfrey Osotsi insists President Ruto must fully honour the 10-point agenda and the NADCO report “to respect Odinga’s legacy.”
Mr Edwin Sifuna, the party’s Secretary General, remains the most skeptical figure in the debate.
ODM Secretary General, Edwin Sifuna, addresses residents of Funyula at Bukiri Primary School in Busia County on February 28, 2025.
Photo credit: Alex Odhiambo | Nation Media Group
“The MoU does not amount to a coalition agreement with UDA nor does it signal any realignments for 2027. I do my job as SG out of responsibility to the ODM party. There is no government called broad-based,” Mr Sifuna said in a recent interview.
While he acknowledges the 10-point agenda, he has publicly accused the Ruto administration of continuing abductions and extra-judicial killings “in total disregard of the agreement.”
Siaya Governor James Orengo has also emphasised that the MoU “is not enforceable under the Political Parties Act.”
These dissenting voices reveal a party still negotiating its identity after Odinga’s exit from the stage.
“The making of a grand coalition is rarely a dramatic event. It often unfolds quietly—through reforms implemented, trust built, political incentives aligned, and legacies honoured,” argues advocate Chris Omore.
The Ruto–Raila 10-point agenda, he says, has become the guiding script of this unfolding political drama. “For ODM, it is a pathway to power without the street battles of the past. For UDA, it is a chance to consolidate a broad national front ahead of 2027. For the country, it may be the next phase of political stabilisation—or the beginning of a new political realignment.”
UDA Deputy Secretary General Omboko Milemba says their coalition’s 2027 game plan would depend on decisions made at the top level between President Ruto and the ODM leader.
UDA Deputy Secretary-General Omboko Milemba.
Photo credit: File | Nation Media Group
“For 2027, they will agree at their own level and we shall execute it at that time. We shall execute the instructions they will give us,” Mr Milemba said.
UDA Organizing Secretary Vincent Kawaya says this declaration should not cause alarm, adding that all parties have a right to fight for their space ahead of any coalition agreement.
“The statement by ODM is okay. What happens is that for every election, everybody must fight for their space, raise their stakes, and make demands,” Mr Kawaya said adding that negotiations will determine how positions are shared once coalition talks formally begin. “ODM is a major partner with a larger control of the voters, and it’s not wrong for them to make any demands,” he said, adding that only the presidency is guaranteed to UDA as talks on a joint ticket take shape.
