With the backing of President Uhuru Kenyatta and at least 20 parties under the Azimio la Umoja banner, former Prime Minister Raila Odinga makes his fifth stab at the presidency in what analysts have termed his most consequential bid yet.
One of his biggest headaches is whether or not he will manage to get a slice of President Kenyatta’s restive Mt Kenya region , a key constituency that could help him garner the 50 per cent plus one vote required for one to win the State House race in the first round.
Mr Odinga’s strategists say they are targeting at least 30 per cent of the vote in the region, or just about 1.8 million votes.
Mt Kenya’s 10 counties control nearly a third of the country’s votes, with Meru having 780,858 voters, Tharaka-Nithi (234,618), Embu (337,627), Nyeri (492,046) and Kirinyaga (378,580). Others are Murang’a (628,416), Kiambu (1,293,309), Laikipia (265,842), Nyandarua (362,357) and Nakuru (1,050,367). This adds up to 5,824,020 votes.
Already, the entry of Mr Kalonzo Musyoka into the camp has unsettled some key players, with some insisting the position must go to Mt Kenya. The reasoning is that should Mr Odinga choose a running mate from outside Mt Kenya, DP Ruto would easily overrun him in the region.
“If there will be discussions about the running mate, that will follow, but the important thing now is to secure the nation,” Mr Musyoka said recently.
Although Mr Musyoka has clarified that his decision to back the ODM leader’s presidential bid was not based on what position he would secure, his allies in Wiper have demanded the slot.
Narc Kenya leader Martha Karua, former Gatanga MP Peter Kenneth, Agriculture Cabinet Secretary Peter Munya and Nakuru Governor Lee Kinyanjui are among those who have been mentioned as possible nominees for the running mate slot.
Mr Odinga also has to shake off the government project tag that DP Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza Alliance has slapped on him following his backing by President Kenyatta.
The support by the incumbent also invites public wrath over issues the government has mishandled, including the raging fuel crisis.
“The patron of Azimio la Umoja is Uhuru Kenyatta and now he has settled on Tinga (Mr Odinga) to be his puppet so that he can continue to rule through remote control because he has sensed that Kenyans have rejected his Azimio project,” said Amani National Congress leader Musalia Mudavadi, who is part of the Kenya Kwanza Alliance.
Political analyst and governance expert Javas Bigambo says the fate of anybody who is endorsed either directly or indirectly by the Head of State depends on how President Kenyatta has performed in the eyes of Kenyans. In case they believe he has performed well, the person associating with him is likely to win, and vice versa.
The ODM leader is also faced with the challenge of convincing the electorate that he does not share in the Jubilee administration failures.
“We had plans to transform the livelihoods of Kenyans under the Big Four Agenda by ensuring affordable housing, value addition, better health services and creation of jobs but the plans were derailed by the handshake,” DP Ruto has repeatedly said, indirectly indicating that the former PM derailed government plans.
Another headache for Mr Odinga is holding together the 20 parties under Azimio, with each pushing its own interests. For, while he needs the support of a broad-based coalition, he would obviously want to retain the strength of his ODM party, which has been his bedrock for the past 15 years.
Mr Odinga also has to battle to retain his support at the Coast, Western, among the Maa community, in Nyanza and parts of the vote-rich Rift Valley, including Turkana. Experts warn the former PM’s insistence on wooing Mt Kenya is likely to derail his State House run.
They give the example of Western, which has been voting overwhelmingly for Mr Odinga but has of late attracted more interest from Dr Ruto, who has since won over Mr Mudavadi and his Ford Kenya counterpart Moses Wetang’ula.
According to University of Nairobi lecturer XN Iraki, Mr Odinga’s focus on Mt Kenya makes his bases vulnerable to Dr Ruto.
“Raila probably thinks his strongholds are locked and there is no need of defending them. That is a risky strategy should he fail to get Central Kenya,” said Prof Iraki. He added that the support of President Kenyatta and Mr Musyoka does not necessarily translate into votes.
“Raila needs to make more deliberate and purposive inroads in Mt Kenya. He must not just rely on Uhuru. He needs other friends who can help him get entrenched support in Central Kenya.
“His assumption that Mt Kenya is all he needs may end up in disappointment because Central Kenya remains slippery for him,” he explained.
Defence Cabinet secretary Eugene Wamalwa argues that the decision by Mr Mudavadi and Mr Wetang’ula to join Kenya Kwanza will not complicate things for Azimio since the duo made their decision without consulting the community.
“Twice Raila has won majority votes in Western and even when we had a single Luhya presidential candidate, Raila beat Musalia even in his home county – Vihiga. As we speak, ANC does not control any county of this region.
“Musalia does not have any ANC governor in Western. So what makes you think that he is more powerful than Raila in Western?” asked Mr Wamalwa.
Kakamega Governor Wycliffe Oparanya admits that Azimio faces stiff competition from DP Ruto’s camp in Western.
“My aim is to lock Western. The DP is always in Kakamega. He goes to Embu then when he comes back, he has to come to Western. That is a critical vote for him,” said Mr Oparanya.
While Mr Odinga enjoys support from a number of governors from Mt Kenyatta, Dr Ruto has on his side the majority of National Assembly members and all the senators from the region, save for Nyeri’s Ephraim Maina.
“President Kenyatta’s decision to campaign for Raila will be in vain as the people have already made a decision,” said Murang’a Senator Irungu Kang’ata.
United States International University’s Prof Macharia Munene argues that President Kenyatta’s endorsement of Mr Odinga might have some positive impact.
“Diehard Uhuru supporters will move in and boost Raila’s chances. The skeptical will remain so,” he said.
Jubilee deputy secretary-general and Cherang’any MP Joshua Kutuny told the Nation that with the President focused on pushing his political interests with regard to his succession, he is moulding a new crop of leaders in Mt Kenyatta to sell Mr Odinga’s candidature.
