The Sifuna storm: Why Nairobi senator is disruptor-in-chief of Ruto, opposition plans

Some members of ODM feel that it was a mistake to let go of Mr Sifuna as the party’s secretary-general and spokesman. But it is too late now.

He now leads a nascent but formidable outfit, Linda Mwananchi, which threatens not only established political careers, but it could also shake the landscape.

National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula and Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi, who have projected themselves as Western Kenya kingpins, would automatically fall victim to Mr Sifuna’s meteoric rise.

The Nairobi senator is on a two-day tour of Western region, which has a 2.2 million-vote bloc. Yesterday, Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya gave him a red carpet welcome as he addressed rallies that were attended by Siaya Governor James Orengo, his Vihiga counterpart, Mr Godfrey Osotsi, Embakasi East MP Babu Owino, and a host of other leaders.

In a broader sense, neither the United Opposition nor President William Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza Alliance have been spared.

A new opinion poll has elevated Mr Siguna to one of the country's most influential political figures, with reports that the president's strategists have now included him in the list of possible 2027 challengers.

Even those in the United Opposition, who previously showed him little or no attention, are now taking note.

Read: No longer at ease: How Sifuna is eroding influence of regional bigwigs

The latest TIFA survey, released on Friday, paints a picture that was not anticipated months ago.

For the first time, Mr Sifuna has overtaken Wiper Patriotic Front leader Kalonzo Musyoka in popularity of presidential candidates, polling 15 per cent compared to Mr Musyoka's 13 per cent.

Jubilee Party presidential candidate Fred Matiang'i follows closely behind with 14 per cent, while Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) leader Rigathi Gachagua trails with seven per cent, and Embakasi East MP Babu Owino lags behind with two per cent.

Cumulatively, the opposition's tally stands at 51 per cent, showing that they are not to be underestimated.

Read: Poll: Sifuna overtakes Kalonzo for first time, Gachagua supporters want him to be kingmaker

President Ruto remains the most popular presidential candidate with 24 per cent of the vote, although this is still far below the constitutional threshold required for an outright first-round victory.

Perhaps even more remarkable than the rankings is the speed of Mr Sifuna's rise to prominence. In just two months, his presidential approval rating has jumped from 0 to 15 per cent.

Less than a year ago, he was barely mentioned in national presidential conversations. Today, he commands enough support to fundamentally alter opposition arithmetic and coalition negotiations.

The pollster described him as “the fastest-rising opposition figure”, positioning him among the country's leading presidential contenders. Even after losing his post as ODM secretary-general, his influence in the party is pronounced, with nearly half of the supporters preferring him as the presidential candidate.

Mr Sifuna’s ODM Linda Mwananchi faction is way ahead in popularity at 74 per cent compared to Dr Oburu Oginga’s 20 per cent.

These findings reinforce the results of an earlier Infotrak survey, which also showed Mr Sifuna catching up rapidly with the traditional heavyweights of the opposition. This suggests that his rise is not an isolated statistical anomaly, but an emerging political trend.

Read: Checkmating Sifuna: Senator's rising star rattles rivals in Western

Mr Sifuna said that President Ruto’s 24 per cent support in the survey demonstrates growing public dissatisfaction with the Kenya Kwanza administration.

"If we take 15 per cent for Sifuna, 13 per cent for Kalonzo and 14 per cent for Matiang'i and all the opposition ratings, we are far above him. We need to understand that unity among opposition leaders is key. Beating an incumbent is not easy. We must agree on the things Ruto has not done right and heed Kenyans' call to send him home," Mr Sifuna said during an interview with vernacular stations in Western Kenya.

Political analyst Arnold Maliba said that many observers have misunderstood Linda Mwananchi.

"It is not simply another political outfit competing for space. It is a pincer movement that is simultaneously exerting pressure on both the established opposition and the government of the day. That is precisely why it has suddenly found itself on everyone's radar," he said.

Mr Maliba said the movement's greatest strength lies in its effort to organise politics around governance, constitutionalism, accountability and citizen participation rather than ethnicity and elite bargains.

For President Ruto, Mr Sifuna’s rise means he risks losing the Mulembe Nation vote, which is crucial to his re-election bid, especially since the Mount Kenya region has turned against him.

Although the president has rarely mentioned Linda Mwananchi by name, his recent speeches warning Kenyans against returning to "failed ideas" have been interpreted as part of the government's broader campaign to discredit the expanding opposition space.

Within the United Opposition, Mr Sifuna’s emergence has complicated what had appeared to be a relatively straightforward contest between Mr Musyoka and Dr Matiang'i for the coalition's presidential ticket.

Until recently, some coalition insiders viewed Mr Sifuna as a possible running mate or youthful face capable of energising campaigns without fundamentally altering leadership equations.

The latest polling has changed that. Analysts say that a politician commanding double-digit national support no longer negotiates from a position of weakness. Instead, he enters coalition talks with genuine leverage. That leverage is already becoming evident.

Embakasi North MP James Gakuya, a close ally of Mr Gachagua, said the opposition can no longer treat Mr Sifuna as simply another participant in coalition negotiations.

"Sifuna is a factor by himself. In any particular election, it is a game of numbers," Mr Gakuya says. "Nobody can stand here and wish away Sifuna."

Opposition ranks

According to the legislator, Mr Sifuna's appeal stretches beyond Raila Odinga's traditional political strongholds: "He will command numbers in Western, Nyanza, the Coast and even Nairobi. In terms of negotiations, he has a base to negotiate."

Read: Ruto will lose in 2027, Sifuna’s Linda Mwananchi camp tells Western

Those observations explain why recent events have exposed growing unease within opposition ranks.

During campaigns for the Ol Kalou by-election, Mr Gachagua publicly cautioned Murang'a Governor Irungu Kang'ata, who has since joined his DCP Party, against inviting Linda Mwananchi to campaign alongside the United Opposition. The remarks reflected concerns extending beyond a single by-election.

For months, the United Opposition has attempted to rally around a common presidential candidate capable of challenging President Ruto. Much of that conversation revolved around Kalonzo Musyoka and Dr Fred Matiang'i.

Should Mr Sifuna insist on running independently, analysts warn, he could split the anti-Ruto vote. Yet asking him to settle for a subordinate position after emerging as one of the opposition's most popular figures could prove equally difficult.

The challenge illustrates Kenya's familiar opposition dilemma—how to balance individual political ambition with the mathematics required to defeat an incumbent.

Mr Gakuya believes compromise remains unavoidable.

"For victory, there has to be sacrifices. Even if Fred Matiang'i or my boss Gachagua has to sacrifice for Kalonzo to take the mantle, it would be wise,” he says.

Nandi Senator Samson Cherargei acknowledges Mr Sifuna's political talent but argues presidential politics demands far more than popularity: "If he's a wise young man, he should remain Nairobi Senator and build his political muscle slowly.

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