For nearly two years, former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua and his successor, Prof Kithure Kindiki, have occupied opposite ends of Kenya's political divide. One has relentlessly accused the Kenya Kwanza administration of betraying Mt Kenya. The other has become President William Ruto's chief political lieutenant in the vote-rich region, tasked with containing the political fallout following Mr Gachagua's impeachment in October 2024.
The relationship has been defined by confrontation rather than conciliation, and that’s why Mr Gachagua's latest defence of Prof Kindiki caught many by surprise.
When Public Service Cabinet Secretary Geoffrey Ruku suggested that Mt Kenya East should politically divorce Mt Kenya West if the latter refused to rally behind Prof Kindiki as the region's future leader, many expected Mr Gachagua to seize the opportunity to hit back.
Unlikely olive branch...but is it?
Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua (left) and his predecessor Kithure Kindiki at a past event in Nyeri town on April 14, 2023.
Photo credit: File | DPCS
On the surface, it appeared to be an unexpected olive branch to the man who inherited his office after impeachment. But beneath the conciliatory tone, political analysts say, lies a far more sophisticated political calculation.
Political observers argue that Mr Gachagua may not necessarily be trying to reconcile with Prof Kindiki.
Instead, he appears to be employing reverse psychology—placing the Deputy President in an increasingly uncomfortable political position where every response carries political consequences.
“Riggy G (Mr Gachagua) is positioning himself as the de facto Mt Kenya leader. That he is the only Mt Kenya leader with capacity to defend former president Uhuru Kenyatta and DP Kindiki. This is a clever strategy to have all Mt Kenya politicians and political parties kiss his ring,” argues Mr Dismas Mokua.
Already Mr Gachagua has announced a planned Mt Kenya East tour with a rigorous six-day visit to Meru and Embu counties, Prof Kindiki’s backyard, as he seeks to unite the region and prevent what he describes as attempts to split the region’s vote ahead of the 2027 General Election.
“Since Mr Gachagua is aware that Mt Kenya East could be under Prof Kindiki's influence, his olive branch is simply to help pacify the ground ahead of his six-days tour,” political pundit John Anditi told the Nation .
He went on: “Gachagua is steadily making an early push into the Mt Kenya East region to deny his rival the opportunity to consolidate it as an exclusive UDA stronghold. His defence of Prof Kindiki against calls to divide Mt Kenya is therefore strategic. It allows him to present himself as the champion of regional unity while simultaneously challenging the Deputy President to demonstrate whether he truly stands for a united Mt Kenya or will tolerate efforts by his allies to fracture the region for political gain."
Deputy President Kithure Kindiki (right) and DCP leader Rigathi Gachagua.
Photo credit: Boniface Mwangi | Nation Media Group
Other analysts also view Mr Gachagua’s olive branch as a "political trap" that allows him to appear magnanimous while simultaneously increasing pressure on his successor.
Since his impeachment, Mr Gachagua has invested heavily in portraying himself as the defender of regional interests, accusing President Ruto of abandoning promises made to the mountain during the 2022 campaigns.
Prof Kindiki, meanwhile, has embraced a different approach. Rather than engaging in personal confrontations with his predecessor, he has anchored his politics on unity, development and continuity within the Kenya Kwanza administration.
For instance, speaking during a thanksgiving service in Embu recently, the Deputy President dismissed suggestions that Mt Kenya could be divided politically.
"We have a long history of unity as the people of Mt Kenya. There is nothing that can divide us. Those who think they can divide us will not succeed. As the Deputy President, I will make sure we remain united and work together as it has always been and will always be," Prof Kindiki said.
His remarks appeared designed to calm growing anxiety following recent political statements suggesting an emerging East-West divide.
The unity message came after CS Ruku had proposed that Mt Kenya East should reconsider its political relationship with the western counties if they refused to support Prof Kindiki's leadership.
"The time has come for us to politically divorce as the Mountain. If you cannot support our son, Prof Kithure Kindiki, after we have supported you all along, then let us split the mountain," Mr Ruku declared.
Although the statement may have been intended to consolidate Prof Kindiki's support base in the eastern counties, analysts warned that it also risked reinforcing Mr Gachagua's long-standing narrative that the government has abandoned the unity that delivered President Ruto to power in 2022.
“Rather than exploiting the comments to attack Prof Kindiki directly, Mr Gachagua adopted a more subtle strategy. By defending the DP against regional division, he effectively shifted political pressure onto him,” Mr Anditi posits.
Kindiki's defining political message
Prof Kindiki's repeated emphasis on unity has become one of his defining political messages. In Embu, he insisted that the region's future depended on remaining united despite political competition.
He also urged residents not to overreact to the recent Ol Kalou parliamentary by-election, arguing that by-elections should not be mistaken for presidential contests.
"It was not a presidential election so there is no problem because the voters chose their MP. Elections for president will be done next year and we are ready for it," he said.
The remarks reflected Kenya Kwanza's broader strategy following its heavy defeat in Nyandarua's Ol Kalou constituency.
Rather than viewing the outcome as evidence of political collapse, government leaders have sought to portray it as an isolated contest shaped by local dynamics.
Prof Kindiki also reminded supporters that President Ruto and former President Uhuru Kenyatta overcame greater political challenges before winning power in 2013, despite facing cases at the International Criminal Court.
"We have been through tougher times," he said.
Mr Gachagua's intervention did not come in a political vacuum. It followed a by-election that dramatically reinforced his influence in Mt Kenya West.
The Ol Kalou contest saw the DCP candidate, Sammy Douglas Kamau Waweru, defeat UDA's Muchina Nyaga by a landslide, reigniting debate over President Ruto's standing in the region.
Following the victory, Mr Gachagua declared that the result "marked the death of UDA" in the region.
However, Kenya Kwanza points to a different reality.
UDA retained key seats during earlier by-elections in Mt Kenya East, after it won the Mbeere North MP seat as well as Evurore and Muminji Ward seats, strengthening the perception that Prof Kindiki has successfully stabilised support in his political backyard.
“Therefore, Mr Gachagua’s move is a strategy familiar in competitive politics: praise an opponent just enough to constrain their next move,” adds Mr Anditi.
For President Ruto, the exchange highlights the increasingly delicate balancing act facing his administration in Mt Kenya. The region delivered millions of votes in 2022 after the Ruto-Gachagua alliance presented itself as a united political force.
Today, Prof Kindiki has become the government's principal political organiser in the mountain, while Mr Gachagua leads a sustained campaign to reclaim the region for the Opposition.
'Where West goes, East follows'
President William Ruto.
Photo credit: File | Nation Media Group
The president's challenge, pundits say, is therefore twofold: retain support in Mt Kenya East while preventing Mr Gachagua from consolidating Mt Kenya West into a permanent opposition bastion.
Analysts warn that even if UDA remains competitive in the eastern counties, losing significant ground in the west could complicate President Ruto's path to re-election.
Political analysts reckon the contrasting by-election results in Mt Kenya East and West should not be viewed as isolated contests, but as an indication of the region's evolving political direction ahead of the 2027 General Election.
According to Mr Andati, the political mood in Mt Kenya West has historically influenced voting patterns in the eastern counties, making the recent Ol Kalou outcome particularly significant.
"Mt Kenya West is like a bigger brother to the East. Where West goes, East follows."
