The outcome of today’s fiercely contested Ol Kalou by-election will be symbolic in many ways.
It will be an early indicator of the emerging balance of power in the populous Mt Kenya ahead of the 2027 contest. It is in this constituency that President William Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA) was politically born when it clinched its first seat by beating Jubilee Party in Rurii ward by-election.
Just like in Ol Kalou where President Ruto and his former deputy Rigathi Gachagua are facing off after a bitter fallout and in readiness for 2027 contest, the May 18, 2021 by-election was also at the height of a similar fallout between Dr Ruto and his then-boss, President Uhuru Kenyatta, and in readiness for the 2022 general election.
UDA would later, in August 2022, ride on the ward win and other subsequent victories in the region against Jubilee to create a political momentum that saw the then-new party sweep the region by winning a majority of seats.
The Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) politicians described the poll as a moment to bury UDA in Mt Kenya and launch the new outfit in readiness for the 2027 battle.
DCP has bagged three ward seats; Kariobangi North Ward in Nairobi County (David Wanyoike Warui), Narok Township Ward in Narok County (Douglas Makonde), and Kisa East Ward in Kakamega County (Aduda Okwiri).
The UDA side has captured the Ol Kalou by-election as a contest between empty political rhetoric and economic development. The ruling party also said that a small margin win for DCP would still be a loss for the opposition outfit, arguing that Mr Gachagua had projected a landslide victory for his new party.
The Independent Electoral Boundaries Commission (IEBC) cleared a total of nine candidates to participate in the poll. They include Sammy Ngotho (DCP), Abdullahi Hussein (Federal Party of Kenya), Kariuki Kamau (People’s Renaissance Party), Samuel Muchina (UDA), Edward Mathenge (Kenya Moja Movement), Rachael Njoroge (People’s Democratic Party) and Wilson Kigwa (Jubilee Party).
Election materials at Ol Kalou Senior School on July 15, 2026, for the constituency's by-election scheduled for July 16, 2026.
Photo credit: Boniface Mwangi | Nation
“We are saying that the death of UDA will be confirmed in Ol Kalou on Thursday. It is in Ol Kalou where UDA was born in 2021 and will be buried tomorrow (Thursday). That same day, we will be celebrating the birth of UDA in Mt Kenya,” said EALA MP Kanini Kega, who has been on the campaign trail for the DCP candidate.
“The stakes are very high. UDA wants to create a perception that they still have influence in Mt Kenya. That is why they have used millions of shillings and launched projects worth billions.”
According to IEBC Ol Kalou Returning Officer Anthony Njiraini, 73,480 registered voters will be eligible to cast their ballots in the July 16 by-election in 144 polling stations.
The outcome of the by-election is seen as politically consequential for both President Ruto and Mr Gachagua over its perceived potential of setting the tone for the 2027 polls as well as shaping popularity perception in the region.
A win for UDA would buttress Dr Ruto’s claim that UDA remains the party to beat in 2027, while at the same time boost Kenya Kwanza administration confidence that voters can identify with its development projects.
It would further weaken the growing perception that Mt Kenya has abandoned Dr Ruto following the impeachment of Mr Gachagua in October 2024. A win for UDA also has a potential of scuttling the opposition’s 2027 game plan by creating an impression that they are unable to pull jointly against UDA.
DCP candidate in Ol Kalou parliamentary by-election Kamau Ngotho (left) and Muchina Nyaga of UDA.
Photo credit: File | Nation Media Group
A loss by UDA in the poll would be interpreted as rejection of Dr Ruto’s administration in the region that voted him to a man by handing him close to three million votes in 2022. Such a loss could also see more leaders defect and align with DCP for political survival.
“This outcome will demystify the ongoing lies about the popularity of DCP and the opposition. DCP has repeatedly said UDA has lost Mt Kenya completely. This by-election is a good platform to test those claims,” said Laikipia East MP Mwangi Kiunjuri.
Mr Kiunjuri said the race has turned out to be a closely contested one despite Mr Gachagua’s previous remarks that DCP stand to win by a huge magin.
“They therefore cannot claim to have control of Mt Kenya. Any close contest is definitely a loss for DCP because they have been going round saying how this is their stronghold. Whatever outcome will be a win for us. But I can tell you that we are winning this seat,” Mr Kiunjuri added.
Former Cabinet Secretary Moses Kuria described the race as contest between political rhetoric and the desire for economic development. He said a loss for DCP would imply a bleak political future for the opposition.
IEBC officials, on July 15, 2026 inspect election materials at Ol Kalou Senior School ahead of the Constituency by-election, scheduled for July 16, 2026.
Photo credit: Boniface Mwangi | Nation
“I want to know whether people can ignore their basic interests for development and choose rhetoric. Are voters selfish enough to choose development, do they know what is good for them,” said Mr Kuria.
UDA deployed close to 25 MPs to the campaign trail. Additionally, the ruling party also had a campaign secretariat headed by digital strategist Dennis Itumbi.
The latest survey by Infotrak released on Monday shows that UDA enjoys a paltry 9 per cent backing in Mt Kenya, in a sharp contrast to the overwhelming support in the run up to the last elections. Mt Kenya and Rift Valley formed Dr Ruto’s political backbone in the 2022 presidential race.
But this has since shifted as DCP now emerges as the most popular party in the region at 33 per cent. A majority at 36 per cent remains undecided.
For Mr Gachagua, the poll presents a second chance for a direct face-off between DCP and UDA, having faced off in Emurua Dikirr parliamentary by-election, in which UDA triumphed.
Police officers patrol sections of Ol Kalou sub-county on July 15, 2026, ahead of the constituency's by-election, scheduled for July 16, 2026.
Photo credit: Boniface Mwangi | Nation
UDA and its broad-based partner ODM have maintained a winning streak in the recent mini polls. The broad-based team won Mbeere North, Ugunja, Kasipul, Magarini and Malaba parliamentary seats. It also captured the Baringo senatorial seat in the November 28, 2025 mini polls.
A win for Mr Gachagua would confirm his political influence in the region. It would also validate his claims that DCP is the dominant outfit in the region ahead of 2027.
However, a loss could weaken DCP momentum for 2027 and hand critics ammunition against Mr Gachagua’s perceived influence in the region.
Jubilee deputy party leader Jeremiah Kioni captured the outcome as ‘life and death’ for DCP. Mr Kioni, who is part of the United Opposition said UDA sought to use the poll to prove that it does not support of affiliate parties to win in Mt Kenya.
“It means a lot for people who have invested a lot in the elections. For DCP, it is life and death. DCP wants to show that they have grown to a point of challenging UDA without the help of anybody,” said Mr Kioni.
“That bravado and dismissive manner is what is on trial for DCP,” he added.
Mr Kioni, whose Jubilee party is also on the ballot, said the outcome means nothing much to the former ruling party. He said the outfit’s focus is on 2027.
For UDA, he said, the outcome is crucial for them to prove that they still enjoy support in the region.
“A win for UDA will dent the confidence of the opposition, and that we need to do more in our quest to beat UDA in 2027,” said Mr Kioni.
Mr Kega and Embakasi Central MP Benjamin Gathiru popularly known as Mejja Donk said heavy deployment of security officers by government is a sign of panic by UDA.
The two allies of Mr Gachagua said UDA was forced to deploy state machinery in a desperate attempt to influence voters.
“Even if they bring goons, we are still winning it hands down,” said Mr Kega.
Mr Gathiru said a loss for UDA would be a vote of no confidence against Kenya Kwanza administration. He said UDA only managed to win seats like Mbeere and Emurua Dikirr through the help of state machinery. He said the fact that DCP came second in Emurua Dikirr, a constituency in Rift Valley shows that UDA has lost support of Kenyans.
“The government has made heavy deployment of security officers in Ol Kalou to instill fear and cause voter suppression in this by-election,” said the MP.
