Zero sum game: Biggest losers in Sifuna’s rise

His rise in the political space now threatens to scuttle the future of career politicians across the divide by reducing their influence and stakes in the 2027 political arithmetic.

For eight years, the vocal politician operated in the shadows of the late opposition leader Raila Odinga as ODM Secretary-General, a position that gave him name recognition.

But it was not until the death of Mr Odinga that an attempt to silence him for opposing the planned coalition deal between ODM and President Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA) that transformed him and his Linda Mwananchi into a national movement.

That rise now threatens a trail of political casualties as Mr Sifuna takes the front row in the country’s politics. ODM and the broad-based arrangement have turned out to be the first major casualties.

Key political players seen as potential losers as a result of his rise include President Ruto, Dr Oginga, Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka, Jubilee deputy party leader Fred Matiang’i, Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi, Cooperatives Cabinet Secretary Wycliffe Oparanya, DAP-K party leader Eugene Wamalwa and National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula.

Mr Sifuna is opposed to President Ruto’s re-election and has vowed to join forces in denying Kenya Kwanza another five years in office. He has since declared his interest in the top seat.

Deputy Kakamega Governor Ayub Savula described Mr Sifuna’s rise as a threat to Dr Ruto’s support in Western. In his own admission, Mr Savula, who is backing Dr Ruto’s re-election, said Mr Sifuna’s presidential bid could significantly disrupt the region and deny the President the needed numbers.

He said the region’s politics has been complicated by perceived competing interests involving Mr Mudavadi, Mr Wetang’ula and Mr Oparanya. The three are said to be angling to be Dr Ruto’s running mate in next year’s elections.

“Sifuna will be dangerous if we don’t speak in one voice as those supporting President Ruto from Western,” said Mr Savula, stating that the three leaders have to drop their personal ambitions and pull in one direction.

“If he (Sifuna) becomes the united opposition presidential candidate, Western will become something else. We don’t, however, expect major disruption should he be named the running mate.”

But Mr Oparanya downplayed Mr Sifuna’s chances of becoming president in 2027. He described the region’s voters as politically conscious, saying they are likely to vote for Dr Ruto, whom he said has a better chance. He gave the example of politician Martin Shikuku, who unsuccessfully ran for president in 1997.

“Our people are politically conscious, even if you declare you are running for President, but if they think you are going nowhere, they will not support you. Even Martin Shikuku contested, but did not get the backing of the region. People voted him for MP, but denied him the presidential vote,” said Mr Oparanya.

The CS, however, faulted ODM for letting Mr Sifuna leave the outfit. He said the party would be much stronger with the Nairobi Senator.

“The fact that they have decided to operate from outside the party, means it may be too late to convince them to come back. But I would still encourage that we talk to them so that we have a strong party,” said Mr Oparanya.

In ODM, Mr Sifuna’s Linda Mwananchi faction has overtaken the outfit’s traditional support bases.  A recent survey by Trends and Insights for Africa (TIFA) showed that Sifuna’s camp enjoys an overwhelming 74 per cent backing compared to the Linda Ground headed by ODM party leader Oburu Oginga, which enjoys 20 per cent support base.

Analysts believe that the rise of Mr Sifuna has significantly weakened ODM bargaining power in its planned pre-election coalition talks with UDA.

When Dr Oginga declared ODM’s support for Dr Ruto’s re-election, he had planned to lead the 20-year-old outfit as a unit in working with UDA. In the grand plan, ODM was seen as an equal partner with UDA. That has since been disrupted, weakening Dr Oginga and ODM’s influence in the 2027 game plan.

But National Assembly Minority Leader Junet Mohammed has insisted that ODM remains a formidable outfit. He said only about seven MPs have ditched the party ahead of 2027. He listed Mr Sifuna, Vihiga Senator Godfrey Osotsi, Siaya Governor James Orengo, Embakasi East Babu Owino, Kisii Senator Richard Onyonka and Suba South MP Caroli Omondi.

Other ODM MPs associating with the Linda Mwananchi include Anthony Kibagendi (Kitutu Chache South), Clive Gisairo (Kitutu Masaba) and Wilberforce Oundo (Funyula).

“Who else has left ODM? Orengo who thought he could be President after Raila, will soon come back to ODM. All these people will come back to ODM, because here is where they have a chance to defend their seats. Those who want to run for president, we can only wish them well,” said Mr Mohammed.

Within the opposition camp, Mr Sifuna has overtaken both Mr Musyoka and Dr Matiang’i in presidential popularity. Mr Wamalwa, who was seen as a potential running mate for Mr Musyoka, has also been overshadowed.

This rise is seen as a threat to the duo when the opposition retreats to pick its candidate. For a long time, Mr Musyoka has been seen as the likely presidential candidate for the opposition. However, that position has since changed, with political players within the team now viewing Mr Sifuna as the camp’s compromise candidate.

TIFA’s second national survey conducted between June 13 and 22 placed Mr Sifuna behind Dr Ruto, but ahead of both Mr Musyoka and Dr Matiang’i after he polled 15 per cent approval, in a rise from zero per cent. In the survey, President Ruto polled 24 per cent, while Dr Matiang’i and Mr Musyoka managed 14 and 13 per cent, respectively.

But Makueni Senator Dan Maanzo, a close ally of Mr Musyoka, does not see Mr Sifuna as a threat to the other opposition figures. Mr Maanzo said the support enjoyed by Mr Sifuna is because of his association with those opposed to President Ruto’s administration.

“Sifuna is part one term movement. That is why we have donated some Wiper members to join his Linda Mwananchi camp. He is working with the broader opposition is bringing ODM support bases onboard,” said Mr Maanzo.

He added, “Sifuna has been brought up political by Raila and Kalonzo. All that popularity he enjoys is because of his association with the opposition leaders.”

Jubilee deputy co-party leader Jeremiah Kioni said Sifuna’s rise is also likely to rescue some political careers. He said that Linda Mwananchi seems to be acceptable across the country. Without mentioning names, Mr Kioni accused some party leaders of using coercion to have people join their parties for personal gain. He said with the growth of Linda Mwananchi, politicians will have options.

In Western, which Mr Sifuna took by storm last weekend, is also undergoing major political realignments. The vocal Nairobi senator has received major endorsement by some old guards from the region, in a development that has exposed both Mr Mudavadi and Mr Wetang’ula.

MP Oundo said it was time for the senior politicians to exit the stage. The Funyula MP said some of the leaders have been in positions of power for decades, but have failed to bring any significant change to the people.

“It is time for them to leave the dancing floor because it is clear that their time is up,” said Mr Oundo.

Prof David Monda – a university lecturer and a political analyst, said Mr Wetang’ula and Mr Mudavadi have been neutered, adding that their relevance is fast fading.

“Mudavadi is seen as a big letdown to the legacy of the Mudavadi political brand. He dissolved his biggest bargaining chip in his party to Ruto,” said Prof Monda.

He said Mr Oparanya could have been seen as the new maverick Luhya kingpin, but his fortunes have been overtaken by the Sifuna wave.  “I believe for his own political survival; he will have to join Sifuna.”

“All this is to say, voters are rational egoists. They want to get behind someone they think has a good chance of winning. For the first time in Kenya's history, the Mulembe Nation has a candidate that can possibly win the presidency,” Prof Monda said.

Centre for Multiparty Democracy Kenya Executive Director Frankline Mukwanja said Sifuna’s rise fundamentally reshapes the political equation in Western Kenya by increasing pressure on established regional heavyweights.

“Wamalwa has largely gambled unsuccessfully since 2013. Although former President Uhuru Kenyatta briefly handed him a political lifeline through a Cabinet appointment, he did not use that opportunity to build a sufficiently strong grassroots political machine,” Mr Mukwanja said.

He noted that the emergence of Sifuna, particularly backed by Governor George Natembeya, further erodes political space Wamalwa could realistically compete for in Bungoma and Trans Nzoia counties.

For Wetang’ula, he said the political terrain is equally challenging. He said the Ford Kenya leader has to contend not only with Sifuna’s resurgence but also with internal competition from UDA and Mudavadi.

He said his determination to keep his party relevant means he must deliver a substantial bloc of MPs to preserve his bargaining power, including any future claim to the National Assembly speakership.

He noted Ruto’s apparent reliance on Bungoma Governor Kenneth Lusaka as a key Western campaign point man signals that Wetang’ula cannot take his position within the Kenya Kwanza coalition for granted.

“In essence, if Sifuna intends to become the dominant political force in Western Kenya, he will have to politically outcompete Oparanya, Wamalwa and Wetang’ula. Regional political dominance is rarely shared,” he said.

Mr Mudavadi recently dismissed the Linda Mwananchi wave, describing Mr Sifuna as a paper tiger.

"Raila Odinga was the real opposition. These other ones are confused, they are like paper tiger, a newspaper fire which lights up before going off very fast. They will be finished very fast," said Mr Mudavadi during an event at the weekend.

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