Azimio la Umoja Coalition leader Raila Odinga.
Azimio leader Raila Odinga’s bid for the chairmanship of the African Union Commission (AUC) seems to be encountering challenges on multiple fronts.
His opposition is intensifying both domestically, due to his firm stance against the government, and regionally, with other countries working to thwart his ambitions.
This situation puts him in a precarious position as he navigates the complexities of his candidacy.
Mr Odinga, who seemed to enjoy united support from government, is now walking a tight rope amid the back and forth between Kenya Kwanza and Azimio.
This comes even as Somalia and Djibouti, which have also fronted candidates for the position, advanced their campaigns to lead the regional body.
Locally, the Kenya Kwanza and Azimio leaders have clashed over Mr Odinga’s bid, following his criticism against the government last week over what he termed as failure to manage the floods situation in the country.
While pro-government politicians believe Mr Odinga should not go against any government position at this time when he has won its backing for the AUC post, the Opposition brigade insist the position should not be used to gag the former prime minister.
But even as Mr Odinga seeks to navigates these challenges, he might have gotten some reprieve yesterday after the government reaffirmed its support for his bid.
Foreign Affairs Principal Secretary Dr Korir Sing’oei moved to dispel fears that the government could abandon Mr Odinga’s quest, insisting that it remains focused on the country’s candidate.
Toned down hard tackles
“The government’s position on its candidate for AUC chair remains unchanged,” Dr Sing’oei told Nation.
Mr Odinga who seemed to have toned down his hard tackles against the Ruto administration, in a turn of events last Friday came out guns blazing, telling off the President over his failure to steer the country properly.
President William Ruto (left) and opposition leader Raila Odinga in Kisozi, Uganda, on February 26, 2024.
Speaking while donating food to flood victims in Nairobi’s Mukuru slums, the ODM leader accused President Ruto of running a corrupt system that would not address the plight of Kenyans.
“During our protests, they claimed we were making it difficult for them to deliver their promises. It is now one year down the line and they have nothing to show.
Even if they are given 10 years, Zakayo (Dr Ruto) will do nothing,” Mr Odinga charged.
Also Read: Inside Raila campaign strategy for AUC
He went on to accuse Dr Ruto of employing corrupt individuals who have continued to preside over graft, mentioning the fake fertiliser saga.
“They were warned early enough about the coming rains, but did nothing to put in place contingency measures and are now telling people to move to higher grounds. Where are those higher grounds? These are people sleeping on the job,” he posed.
Mr Odinga’s tough stance against the government came as a surprise, even catching President Ruto’s allies off-guard.
Senate Majority Leader Aaron Cheruiyot and his National Assembly counterpart Kimani Ichung’wah were the first of the President’s confidants to fire salvos at Mr Odinga.
“Tinga’s (Mr Odinga’s) constituency now is African Presidents. They hold the key to his next election. He is out here insulting a man they all hold in high regard. On election day, when they evaluate his credentials, how do you imagine it will end?” Mr Cheruiyot posed.
Mr Ichung’wah termed Mr Odinga’s recent trip to Dubai as “a poisoned chalice”.
“He reconnected with the very guys who promised him the Presidency, but delivered hot air,” said Mr Ichung’wah.
He claimed that Mr Odinga was ill-advised to attack President Ruto with the hope of securing the AUC post
But Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka, a co-principal in Mr Odinga’s Azimio, warned Kenya Kwanza politicians against blackmailing the former premier.
"We have heard Kenya Kwanza leaders castigating Mr Odinga for what he said in Mukuru Kwa Reuben. I don't know if the Kenya Kwanza leaders thought they could compromise him because of his quest," he wondered.
ODM Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna said President Ruto’s support for Mr Odinga’s AUC bid should be unconditional.
“You cannot pocket Raila Odinga or Edwin Sifuna. If someone is giving you support, it should be unconditional.
“If the government is unable to deliver, they should not try to silence Raila,” Mr Sifuna said at Friends Church Mashimoni in Kibra on Sunday.
Mr Odinga’s lawyer, Mr Paul Mwangi, said the ODM leader's quest for the AUC job was not a matter of life and death.
“He would not sell his soul for it. Secondly, I wish you knew how many Kenyans out there are so unhappy about the AU job that they would believe God answered their prayers if Baba didn't get it,” added Mr Mwangi.
And even as the political heat over Mr Odinga’s candidacy hots up in the country, regionally, Somalia, which has fronted its former Foreign Affairs Minister Fawzia Yusuf, as well as Djibouti, which is backing its Minister of Foreign Affairs Mahmoud Youssouf, have heightened their campaigns, reaching out to various blocs and external influencers.
Somalia had last week claimed to have received the backing of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), which has 27 African countries, including Djibouti, but was forced to withdraw its statement, pointing to differences in the organisation.
Diplomatic experts say OIC has members belonging to various blocs that will definitely not endorse one candidate, but agree that should they do, then Mr Odinga would have an uphill task in his quest.
“African blocs are much more important when they endorse a candidate, not international organisations,” the experts said.
OIC member states in Africa include Algeria, Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Chad, Comoros, Djibouti, Egypt, Gabon, Gambia, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Côte d'Ivoire, Libya, Mali, Mauritania, Morocco, Mozambique and Niger.
Others are Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Sudan, Togo, Tunisia and even Uganda, which has already pledged support for Mr Odinga.
Azimio la Umoja leader Raila Odinga (left) with former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo in Nairobi on February 15, 2024.
The countries are part of the OIC due to their significant Muslim populations, and they engage in various initiatives aimed at promoting Muslim solidarity in economic, social, and political affairs.
There have also been concerns that the United States, viewed as a major external influencer on African Affairs, could be leaning towards Djibouti and last week, Mr Odinga who hosted the US Ambassador to Kenya, Ms Meg Whitman, is said to have, however, gotten an assurance on non-interference.
Mr Odinga’s strategist, former Kenya ambassador to the US Elkanah Odembo, agrees that the US has close ties with Djibouti.
“We are aware that the US has very close ties with Djibouti. We are also aware of the strong ties between Djibouti and France. However, we are also alive to the fact that Kenya and the US have enjoyed a healthy, cordial, and strategic relationship for some 60 years now.
“In fact, President Ruto will be on a State visit to Washington as part of the celebrations of our 60 years of diplomatic ties.
"Further, we have been given assurances of the US government's neutrality in the forthcoming AU Commission elections,” Mr Odembo told Nation.
On Monday, the former envoy said Mr Odinga remained firmly in the race adding that his criticism of the government was positive.
“In fact, he has stepped up his diplomatic relations and is meeting foreign leaders and diplomats.
"The next few weeks he and his team will focus on African leaders and diplomats,” Mr Odembo said.
President Ruto, he noted, supports Mr Odinga’s bid “because he knows it will be good for Kenya, and good for Africa.”
