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Raila Odinga
Caption for the landscape image:

Inside Raila campaign strategy for AUC

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Azimio leader Raila Odinga during a press briefing and presentation of the National Dialogue Committee report at Capital Hill Nairobi on March 8, 2024.

Photo credit: Wilfred Nyangaresi | Nation Media Group

Kenya is set to launch massive campaigns for Azimio leader Raila Odinga, who is its candidate for the chairperson of the African Union Commission (AUC).

The outcome of today’s Executive Council meeting in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia is highly expected to clear the path for Mr Odinga's candidacy.

This follows far-reaching recommendations by the AU Permanent Representatives’ Committee (PRC) early this week, that the council, composed of ministers for foreign affairs of member states, will deliberate on today.

Paul Kagame and Raila Odinga

Rwandan President Paul Kagame (right) with Kenyan opposition leader Raila Odinga in Kigali on March 8, 2024.

Photo credit: Pool

PRC is a committee of ambassadors from member states accredited to the AU composed of all member states, but not all make decisions. 

Both PRC and the council, however, exclude all countries that have violated the AU policy on unconstitutional changes in government. They include Sudan, Gabon, Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso and Guinea.

On Thursday, Nation was informed that Mr Odinga, is expected to “pay particular attention to Francophone (French speaking) countries, in the next two weeks, after the Azimio leader, through the support of President William Ruto secured the East African vote.

“We are now rolling out a campaign strategy that will involve working with key influencers (former Heads of State and Government, Ministers, media personalities, academics, among other groups in all the regions,” a key diplomat involved in the campaigns told Nation.

He pointed out that they will target key blocs including; Southern African Development Community (SADC), the Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas), Maghreb and Central regions in the campaigns.

“We want out teams to communicate the central message that Africa is at a critical juncture and must embark on an urgent mission of unity, meaningful regional trade and integration...and to be an influential player in international and global geopolitics…and that Raila Odinga is the man to lead that charge given his enormous continental experience, understanding and unrivaled Pan Africanist credentials,” added the diplomat.

Today’s council meeting is expected to ratify the recommendations by the PRC that includes Inter-regional rotation which allows the Eastern region to be eligible to nominate candidates for the position of chairperson while the Northern Africa region will be eligible to nominate candidates for the position of Deputy Chairperson.

An earlier proposal had asked members to approve regional and intraregional rotation such that countries that had previously held the Chair Person or Deputy Chairperson role are excluded from the race. 

The other proposal suggested that male chairs are alternated with female replacements, which would have meant that the next election would be restricted to female candidates, hindering Mr Odinga’s quest.

Divisions had arisen mainly because the draft rules would also deny incumbents eligible to run for a second term their chance. 

Members also refused the gender alternation within eligible regions, asking instead to grant autonomy to those regions to decide their best talents.

Both proposals could have hurt Mr Odinga because he is male, and Kenya has had a Deputy Chairperson before at the African Union Commission in Dr Erastus Mwencha (between 2008 and 2016).

Raila Odinga and Olusegun Obasanjo

Azimio la Umoja leader Raila Odinga (left) with former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo in Nairobi on February 15, 2024.

Photo credit: File | Nation Media Group

The council is also expected to deliberate on the PRC’s proposal on intra-regional rotation which it noted should be based on regional consultations and not on the English alphabetical order.

On the rotational gender parity, Nation established that the PRC agreed on non-application of gender rotation in the application of the principle of rotational gender parity. 

“The PRC position aligns with Kenya's interpretation of this principle. Thus, both Eastern and Northern Africa regions are at liberty to nominate candidates of either gender for the posts of Chairperson and Deputy Chairperson respectively in the AUC election 2025,” said a diplomat who is involved in the campaigns.

The council, he noted, is also expected to ratify another proposal on the allocation of Commissioner's portfolios, which will see the six posts left open for competition by candidates nominated by the three remaining regions (Central, Southern and Western Africa).

Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi, who is in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia for the crucial meeting, emphasised on collaboration to push the Kenyan agenda.

“The entire government apparatus, under the leadership of His Excellency the President and with a team from the Office of the Prime Cabinet Secretary and Ministry of Foreign and Diaspora Affairs, is actively working to ensure success,” he said.

He pointed out that Kenya's diplomatic missions across Africa were playing a key role in engaging with other member states and building support.

“Beyond the government, we are seeing prominent Kenyans from different backgrounds – business leaders, civil society representatives, and cultural figures – lending their voices to this campaign.”

“Our resolve is to unite all Kenyans in supporting Hon. Odinga, who has demonstrated his vision for a more united, prosperous, and peaceful Africa,” he said.