Where US election is won, or lost
Republican presidential nominee and former US President Donald Trump gestures at a campaign rally in Rocky Mount, North Carolina On October 30, 2024. Left: Democratic presidential nominee and US Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at a campaign rally in Madison, Wisconsin on October 30, 2024.
In Phoenix, Arizona, United States.
US Presidential Candidates, Vice President Kamala Harris and Donald Trump campaigned in Wisconsin State to make their final submissions to the voters in a homestretch ahead of elections on Tuesday.
The two contenders have been making history in different ways. And when they both set foot in Wisconsin, it was the first time that Democratic and Republican candidates campaigned in the same state.
Their race has become tight, with the latest opinion polls suggesting a close contest, even closer than the 2008 contest between Barack Obama and late Arizona Senator John McCain.
Leading media outlets in the US have painted a picture that shows the so-called swing states will be the deciding factor who wins next week.
Historically, Democrats or the blue states have always begun with 226 electoral votes already bagged in their stronghold states while Republicans or the Grand Old Party-GOP traditionally hold 219 votes. The remaining balance is often hunted in the battle ground states or the swing states, named so because they oscillate their support between the parties every passing election.
These states include Arizona which has 11 electoral colleges, Georgia with 16, Michigan has 15, and Nevada has the least which is 6.
North Carolina has 16 Electoral College votes, Pennsylvania has the highest at 19 votes while Wisconsin has 10, giving a total of 93 crucial electoral votes where both candidates have shifted their focus. In 2020, the two candidates Joe Biden and Donald Trump focused on six battle states but in 2024, they are seven.
To be declared president, a candidate is supposed win at least 270 electoral votes out of the 538 members of the Electoral College which is an equivalent of 50 percent +1. This explains why a candidate may get more popular votes but still lose the presidency.
In the US, the election is such that voters vote for candidates but they will actually be choosing the electors for the college votes that candidates need to qualify for White House.
Traditionally, Arizona State has been allied to the Republican Party but in the 1996 and 2020, they voted for Democratic presidential candidates Bill Clinton and Joe Biden.
The state together with California, New Mexico and Texas share a border with Mexico implying that the agenda on immigration will be a key issue.
A visit to the Maricopa County headquarters in Phoenix, Arizona on Thursday revealed they were ready for Tuesday. Maricopa is the largest voting jurisdiction in the United States with 2.6 million voters and it’s more populous than 24 states.
Nate Young, the chief information officer of the county recorder, said they had mailed out 2 million ballot papers for early voters. They had received 1,113,149 by Thursday, while in person early voters had reached 104,055.
Early voting in Arizona began on October 9, 27 days ahead of the main election date.
In Nevada State, the trend has been such that whoever has won that state in the last 10 elections ended up clinching the presidency, except in 2016. Republicans won in 2000 and 2004. Early voting ended on Friday.
On Thursday, Vice President Kamala Harris pitched tent in Las Vegas, Nevada accompanied by American singer and actress Jennifer Lopez as she made her last pitch to the critical Latino voters.
GoP Candidate Donald Trump took a break from swing state counties, campaigning in New Mexico State, which equally has a crucial Latino voting population. His running mate JD Vance will be in Scottsdale, in the outskirts of Phoenix, Arizona for their final pitch rallies.
Georgia, with 16 electoral votes, has always voted for Republicans but in 2020, President Biden made history after clinching the state becoming the 1st Democrat to win Georgia in 30 years. Its capital Atlanta is a highly metropolitan area with one of the highest populations of African Americans, 3.7 million early voters have cast their ballots.
Preserving democracy, immigration and inflation have emerged as key issues that will likely influence the voting.
North Carolina with its 16 votes has been a reliable red state or Republican all through and Democrats have only won twice being 1976 and 2008 that’s presidents Jimmy Carter and Barrack Obama. Immigration is likely to be a major issue given that majority are whites and it’s in this state that Donald Trump gave a promise of largest deportation in America’s history should he win the election.
For long Michigan has voted for democrats since 1992, except in 2016 when Trump won becoming the first Republican to win since 1988. The state has the highest concentration of Arab Americans meaning geo politics might have an influence on the same specifically the ongoing in Gaza.
In September 2023, President Joe Biden joined striking workers in picketing. Mail ballots returned as of October 28, in early votes were 2.1 million.
The vote rich swing state is Pennsylvania with 19 votes which Biden won in 2020 by a narrow margin of 1.2 percent. Research shows that cost of living and inflation is highest than in other state and therefore will largely dictate voting. The region has been viewed as the decisive state in this election. Mail ballots returned as of October 30, stood at 1.5 million.
Pennsylvania does not offer in-person early voting as commonly understood, but does allow voters to request, receive, complete and submit a mail-in ballot all in one visit. All registered voters in the Keystone State can vote by mail – with no excuse required – as long as they applied for a ballot by October 29.
Total early voter participation in the Keystone State recently eclipsed one million.
Wisconsin State has been voting for Democrats since 1988, but in 2016, Trump won before Biden grabbed back for Democrats in 2020. The area is huge in agriculture particularly dairy farming with immigrants making up 28 percent of the workforce.
It is seemingly an important state given that it’s the venue which Republican Party chose for endorsing its candidate Donald Trump while on the other hand, immediately after her endorsement, Democratic candidate Kamala Harris took her first campaign to that state, and picked her running mate Tim Walz, the governor of Minnesota, which neighbours Wisconsin.
Individual state tallies had exceeded one million votes in California, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia and Washington, as well as in the critical swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
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US Election 2024 utility
Us Electoral College
Members/votes = 538
Votes need to win presidency =270
Head Start
- Democrats 226
- Republicans 219
Battle Ground States
- Arizona 11
- Georgia 16
- Michigan 15
- Nevada 6
- North Carolina 16
- Pennsylvania 19
- Wisconsin 10
