Hours before the World Cup kickoff, the boost to travel and tourism expected from this year’s biggest sporting event has yet to materialise.
For years, the tournament was expected to deliver a windfall for America's travel industry, now grappling with declining international visitors amid what rights groups describe as a climate of fear.
The swarms of fans hotels had counted on are yet to arrive, forcing many to cut rates. Flight bookings have slumped as ticket prices have skyrocketed. Expensive match tickets have further stymied demand, and industry analysts say excitement has been muted compared with past World Cups.
The weak start suggests the traditional World Cup travel playbook - typically dependent on international fans willing to travel long distances and spend heavily to follow their teams - is faltering. Instead, the costs, visa hurdles and the logistics of attending matches across 16 host cities in three countries have proved a deterrent.
U.S. travelers, in a country where soccer is less popular than in Europe, are not filling the gap.
It is "overall a disappointment. There's no other word that I can say," said Vijay Dandapani, CEO of the Hotel Association of New York City. The association has cut its forecast for hotel room revenue tied to the World Cup by 60% to roughly $60 million, he said.
The International Federation of Association Football (FIFA) did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Last minute demand yet to materialise
Flight bookings from Europe into most host cities for June and July are down 3.8% on average year-over-year, according to Cirium, even after Europeans had already pulled back from travel to the U.S. last year. Bookings from Europe into New York, host of the July 19 final, have plunged 15.8%, Cirium said.
FIFA had projected 1.2 million fans would descend on the city, but Dandapani said the New York hotel association is only expecting half a million.
Dandapani said there has been a small uptick in bookings from U.K. and Norway fans recently, which he called a "positive sign."
Hotels are hoping for a last-minute surge after the group stage concludes, after discouraging early data. Average bookings across host cities are up just 0.5% from a year earlier, according to analytics firm CoStar.
Several New York hotels are discounting hotel rooms, said Dandapani, including the New York Hilton Midtown, the city's largest hotel, which has slashed rates for the tournament in half to $415 per night, compared to advertised rates in December, he said.
Hilton HLT.N in April said it was seeing strong bookings, driven by New York. The following month, Marriott MAR.O said "there obviously is still a lot left to book given that the exact matchups for the latter half of the competition have not yet been decided."
"Some fans are skipping the World Cup altogether," said Andy Milne, England superfan and author of the book That World Cup Guy. "Friends of mine are heading to Ibiza to watch every match on TV for a fraction of the price. Others are going to Vegas. It'll still cost money, but far less than tickets, travel, hotels and transport to the stadiums."
Fans, especially affluent ones, are waiting for matchups to crystallize or for their teams to advance before committing to travel, luxury sports travel company Roadtrips said.
High ticket costs, visas deter visitors
Fans from more than half the qualified countries need visas to enter the United States, adding cost and uncertainty for travellers already wary of stricter border enforcement. The Trump administration denied a Somali referee entry over alleged links to "suspected members of terror organisations."
FIFA's ticketing practices have also soured some fans. Organizers introduced record-high base prices and for the first time, dynamic pricing that raised costs as the tournament neared. FIFA’s decision to allow uncapped resale pricing inflated costs further and drew regulatory scrutiny.
The cheapest ticket in host cities like New York and Miami now approaches $1,000, according to TicketData.
Even if ticket prices halve closer to key matches, last-minute demand may remain muted, as overseas fans still face the cost and complexity of booking travel and securing visas on short notice, said Dana Lattouf, CEO of Tickitto, a UK ticket distributor.
Vacation rentals, which allow groups to split costs, are a rare bright spot. Airbnb ABNB.O told investors in May that the World Cup was on track to be its largest event ever, while data from short-term rental analytics firm AirDNA shows bookings are tracking higher in cities like Boston and Los Angeles, with hosts raising prices to capture last-minute demand.
Booked average daily rates for rentals across host cities were $218, while travelers looking now would pay about $335 as of June 8, AirDNA said.
“There is way more leisure demand in all these cities because of the World Cup. That is unmistakable,” said Jamie Lane, chief economist at AirDNA.
