Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua is expected to take to the airwaves to release a bombshell giving political direction to his restive Mountain base.
Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua faces a political litmus test as he seeks to influence the restive Mt Kenya away from his former boss, President William Ruto.
Mr Gachagua is expected to take to the airwaves to release a bombshell giving political direction to his restive Mountain base that he says is aimed at making President Ruto a one-term president.
But the self-proclaimed “truthful man” faces a dilemma: if his announcement is underwhelming, it will renew pressure on him while giving his rivals ammunition. If it is a political seismic shift, then he will have the tough task of putting together a coalition that can stay intact for the next two-and-a-half years. If he once again fails to make any meaningful declaration, then he risks losing credibility.
Last week, Mr Gachagua promised to make the long-awaited statement on Sunday, February 9, raising expectations among his supporters and signalling realignments ahead of the 2027 elections.
Political history
In Kenya’s political history, some past similar pronouncements failed to gain the expected traction, consigning the players to the political cold while others succeeded in creating major waves.
Although it is not clear if Mr Gachagua would name his new political party, his script appears similar to that of Mwai Kibaki, who resigned from Daniel Moi’s administration and joined the Democratic Party ahead of the 1992 multiparty elections. The major difference is that Mr Gachagua was impeached.
Similarly, in the run-up to 2002, political bigwigs disgruntled by Mr Moi’s decision to front Mr Uhuru Kenyatta as Kanu’s presidential candidate formed the National Alliance of Rainbow Coalition.
The coalition gained a national political wave that swept Mr Kibaki to State House, beating Mr Kenyatta of Kanu.
The political ramifications of such pronouncements could explain why Mr Gachagua has postponed the announcement twice.
He had promised to make it on January 31 and later February 2, 2025, he apologised and fixed Sunday as his new date.
Away from Mt Kenya base, Mr Gachagua is yet to project himself as a national leader, a tag that his opponents have always used against him.
He will also have to challenge his impeachment, which essentially bars him from running for any political office.
He, however, recently claimed that nothing stops him from running so long as he has not exhausted his appeals.
“It is not a must that I be Kenya’s leader; there are many people who can lead. I will be part of the team that will make decisions. But no one has stopped me from running for office—I have an ongoing court case,” said Mr Gachagua, during an interview with local radio stations.
Mr Gachagua while in Murang'a County on February 2, 2025, came out as a man who identifies with the huge expectations that the Mt Kenya region has in his promised announcement.
After he was impeached in October last year, Mr Gachagua retreated to his rural Wamunyoro home and commenced a unity drive for the region that his people embraced, hostilities against President Ruto and his allies becoming bold and daring.
Since Mr Gachagua’s impeachment in October, Mt Kenya residents have largely been hostile to the President and his allies.
The opposition bug appears to have viciously struck region, more pronounced being the demand for Gachagua to name a political party that they will use for 2027 General Election.
"I will use the Mt Kenya-based vernacular media houses to issue an interim statement about what stakeholders have advised me as the way forward. I will name a political party that I will propose to my people, how to register into it and how it shall popularise itself," Mr Gachagua said.
Moving in advance to quell over-expectations of naming a flag bearer for the 2027 Presidential elections, he said "This announcement that I will be making has got nothing to do with national political space, it is about our housekeeping issue".
He added: "Expect nothing more but a housekeeping exercise and urging my people to keep the faith, hope for the best and above all aspire to reach the 2027 election date with an estimated 10 million registered voters".
Having already buried the hatchet with Martha Karua, who was Mr Raila Odinga’s running mate on an Azimio ticket in 2022, Mr Gachagua said it was important for the Mt Kenya region to first stick together and come up with a party that will allow them to negotiate with others across the country.
Political commentator Prof Peter Kagwanja says Mr Gachagua’s task is not an easy one "for the rebellion culture that he has built around Mt Kenya demands he matches it with an earthquake announcement".
But Prof Kagwanja says it is not practical that Mr Gachagua will go beyond merely updating his followers.
“He will most likely restrict himself to naming a party, its interim officials, urge people to register, make some hard-hitting statements and eventually beg for more time to go and organise himself further," he says.
Prof Kagwanja says political declarations of the nature Mr Gachagua seeks to make come with risks of sabotage and desertions as competing forces get ammunition to launch political attacks.
Political scientist Gasper Odhiambo says such announcements have never been easy and there are bound to be strong reactions, depending on what Mr Gachagua says.
"It is common knowledge that the mountain has several competitive wings. Besides the Gachagua camp, we have the Uhuru Kenyatta camp that also is actively coming out wrestling for 2027 say in the Mt Kenya region. We also have the President Ruto loyalists who also are angling to stage a scramble," he said.
He said Kenya is rich with case studies of how pre-contest alliances are made starting in 1963 when Jaramogi Oginga Odinga made Jomo Kenyatta Prime Minister. They would spectacularly fall out after Mzee Kenyatta became President and Mr Odinga his deputy. The formation of the Kenya People’s Union by Mr Odinga, who had resigned as Vice President, was a major announcement in 1966 that shifted Kenya’s politics.
Mr Odhiambo said Mr Gachagua’s announcement will force Dr Ruto to push harder for more political alliances, including strengthening the broad-based government that includes allies of Mr Raila Odinga.
"Already out of Gachagua’s incursions the president has formed the broad-based government and is still expanding it. The Gachagua wave might demand a reality check measure for the president to shop for alternative reliable partner away from Mt Kenya," he said.
Murang'a Senator Joe Nyutu said on Friday, February 7 that "what we anticipate is that after Gachagua’s announcement, the government will deem Mt Kenya to have finally ditched it and the process of attempting to isolate us as the president seeks compensation allies outside our region kicks off".
He said the issue of forming a national alliance for now is not in the picture since negotiations have not even started.
"It is premature to discuss how positions will be shared. We are nowhere near there. For now, we are putting our (Mt Kenya) house in order as we also monitor how other regions are organising themselves. We go into this with the advantage of numbers and we will be the most courted voting bloc," he said.
Territorial turf wars
Former Gatanga MP Nduati Ngugi, who is allied to former President Uhuru Kenyatta, told Nation.Africa that there are those who want the Jubilee Party to be the region’s political vehicle but the Gachagua camp is not keen on this.
Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology JKUAT don Charles Mwangi says: "Mr Gachagua's announcement will make the Mountain politics even stormier as territorial turf wars erupt."
He predicts that immediately Mr Gachagua makes the announcement — “which will most likely be limited to only naming a political party” -- all the other parties will either express a desire to partner with him or chart an independent path.
He said President Ruto affiliated parties in Mt Kenya like The Service Party, Tujibebe and Usawa Party will most likely come out to scramble for a share of political attention.
The Tujibebe Party is associated with Information Communications and Technology Cabinet Secretary William Kabogo.
"We cannot be unfair to our people to tell them to board a matatu that is heading nowhere," Mr Kabogo recently said during an interview in reference to Mr Gachagua’s efforts.
Usawa Party leader Mr Mwangi wa Iria said recently that "as far as I am concerned Gachagua is not our collective leader in the mountain to arrogate himself the legitimacy of giving us a binding direction".
Laikipia East MP Mwangi Kiunjuri for The Service Party told Nation.Africa that the former Deputy President is wasting his time dreaming big instead of being realistic that two years before the next elections is enough time for pro-Ruto politicians to fight back and gain ground.
mwangilink@gmail.com
