When a group of Western Kenya politicians last week warned against attempts to oust National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula , they provided evidence of likely political ramification as impeachment of Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua’s was sealed.
The politicians led by Kakamega Deputy Governor Ayub Savula were responding to growing rumours of a plan afoot to remove Ford Kenya leader Wetang’ula as Speaker and replace him with a candidate from opposition leader Raila Odinga’s ODM party, the name most frequently mentioned being Rarieda MP Otiende Amollo.
According to the rumours, Gachagua’s ouster and replacement with Prof Kithure Kindiki , also from the Mt Kenya region, would be followed by a realignment of the ‘shareholding structure’ of President William Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza regime.
Western Kenya, which already has two senior offices in Wetang’ula and Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi , would be made to surrender one slot to make way Raila’s Nyanza region as expanded alliance takes shape for the 2027 elections.
That Wetang’ula’s supporters were mobilised to rush to his defence proves that the rumours were being taken seriously in his camp. But also pertinent is what the reaction shows of the political dynamics that are likely to confront Kindiki as he settles into office.
He assumes the deputy presidency presumed to be headed for Mt Kenya supremacy and a heartbeat away from the presidency, first in line to State House succession, whether President Ruto served out his tenure or vacates prematurely.
Aware of what befell the forceful Gachagua, Prof Kindiki will be treading on eggshells. As DP, he is the most senior Mt Kenya politician, yet can’t afford to be seen crafting an independent political base.
Distractions such as those provided by Savula and company will be out of his control, but at the same time how he responds could have great bearing on his role as DP.
Paramount for Prof Kindiki will be need to quietly bolster his base while at the same time building alliances across regions rather than antagonising everyone.
He will have to be Deputy President for all, rather than be seen only advancing the interests of his narrow ‘murima’ region as Mr Gachagua fatally did. Prof Kindiki and Mr Gachagua are two very different characters. The latter came across as an arrogant, insensitive, rough-hewn bully. The former as thoughtful and professorial.
In the coming weeks, months and years, the two might well be battling for the heart and soul of the populous Mr Kenya region, even as both keep an eye the needs of other voting blocs in their respective alliances.
Having witnessed first-hand what happened to his predecessor, the new DP will have leant to speak softly, and to apply persuasion rather than force.
Yet, the quiet demeanor of Prof Kindiki masks a ruthless political mien. As Cabinet Secretary for Interior and Coordination of National Government, he presided over arguably the most powerful docket of all, by functions even more influential than the DP. The entire national security machinery and government administrative machinery was at his beck and call.
He presided over a brutal crackdown on the Gen Z revolt against high taxation, unapologetic in his defense of unrestrained police use of live ammunition against youthful unarmed protestors.
The official death toll from police bullets in just a few weeks of protests has been put at about 40, no small number in itself, but independent human rights watchdogs have it much higher than that, not to mention the high number of missing and presumed dead.
Prof Kindiki’s tenure at the helm of national security also saw the formation of a secretive multi-agency squad drawn from the Directorate of Criminal Investigation and other specialist police units, the National Intelligence Service and even the Kenya Defence Forces.
The squad is suspected to be behind the wave of abductions, illegal confinements, torture and enforced disappearances targeting suspected organisers and supporters of the Gen Z movement.
It was also used, working with complaint journalists, to publish propaganda fingering high-profile politicians, civil society activists and institutions supposedly financing the Gen Z protests as a prelude to a coup plot.
Prof Kindiki himself went to Parliament and other fora where he provided juicy tidbits on impending arrests of senior figures supposedly aiding the Gen Z protests, implicitly pointing a finger in the direction of Mr Gachagua, whom he was poised to succeed as Deputy President.
He may have talked softly, even shrilly, but carried a big stick.
