President William Ruto congratulates Deputy President Kithure Kindiki after he took the oath of office at KICC, Nairobi on November 01, 2024.
There is no doubt that the ascendancy of Prof Kithure Kindiki to the second highest office in the land marks a major development on the national political scene; as well as the restive Mt Kenya arena, where a big political void remains after the impeachment of Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua.
The ousted DP could be heading for political oblivion if he does not succeed in ongoing legal battles challenging his impeachment. This is a matter that will likely go all the way up to the Supreme Court, where confirmation of the Senate decision on impeachment will mean Gachagua barred from holding public office, putting to a halt whatever plans he may have to vie for the presidency in 2027.
It is not by coincidence that as it became apparent in the past few weeks that Gachagua was running out of options and Kindiki was set for swearing-in, a crop of leaders from what remains of the opposition Azimio la Umoja-One Kenya coalition attended a gathering at the Ndumberi grounds in Kiambu County, where Wiper Party boss and former Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka was lauded as likely beneficiary of Mt Kenya vote come the next elections.
Gachagua was not present at the gathering, but it has been public knowledge that Musyoka has been assiduously courting him since the impeachment drama, seeking support for in a mooted political alliance and in return rallying his Wiper troops in Parliament behind the besieged DP during the impeachment proceedings.
The Ndumberi meeting was supposedly a 64th birthday party celebration for former President Uhuru Kenyatta, who was also absent, but it was in reality billed as the first of a series of political forums called to chart the political way forward for the populous Mr Kenya community. A key message was that Musyoka was the best choice for the Mt Kenya, his Kamba community being recognised as close cousins of the Gema (Gikuyu, Embu, Meru) communities. The full import of the meeting has still be seen given the absence of both Gachagua and Uhuru, and their known close allies, but the intention was clear.
Strategic move
Musyoka, accompanied by fellow Azimio principal Eugene Wamalwa of the DAP-K party, was given recognition as a favourite son of the Mountain at a charged gathering dominated by harsh attacks on President William Ruto and the Kenya Kwanza alliance for betraying and community leaders.
For Musyoka, it was a clearly strategic move in his quest Mt Kenya endorsement. Speeches at the function indicated that the leaders present did not recognise Kindiki as a bona leader for the region despite his imminent installation as Deputy President. But neither did the meeting serve as an indicator that the leadership void left with exit of Uhuru following the 2022 elections has been ably filled. Gachagua was effectively used by the Ruto presidential campaign machinery to take battle to Uhuru, who had spurned his Deputy President of two terms to instead back the candidacy of opposition chief Raila Odinga.
He was rewarded with the running-mate slot despite a clear majority of the Mt Kenya caucus preferring Kindiki. But as he sought to fill the leadership void and succeed Uhuru as Mt Kenya kingpin, Gachagua dug his own grave, especially when he seemed to push the notion that that Ruto owed him. A series of missteps which included projecting himself as DP for Mt Kenya rather than national leader, and failure to build bridges across the country, also contributed to his downfall.
Eventually, Gachagua sought to mend fences with Uhuru in order to bolster his quest for Mt Kenya leadership, with some very public apologies and pleas for unity, but it has always been significant that the latter never reciprocated. When Ruto moved to bolster his numbers by bringing Raila into his orbit with the sweetener of cabinet slots for his ODM party, Gachagua’s fate was sealed. Securing support of Musyoka’s Wiper Party and Wamalwa’s DAP could not stave of impeachment as their number were puny compared to the Kenya-Kwanza-ODM numbers in Parliament.
A great deal of sympathy
The impeachment outcome might well provide an indicator of what is to unfold. The pressure on Gachagua once it became clear he was for the chop earned him a great deal of sympathy in his backyard, and presumably the Mt Kenya kingpin stature he craved, but it must have hurt that the vast majority of MPs, including from his own Nyeri County, voted to kick him out.
The big question is if he has the clout, especially if barred from running for President, to rally the Mountain behind Musyoka or any other aspirant who gets his nod. While Gachagua’s strategist will no doubt try to pin the traitor label on Kindiki as they try to secure the Mt Kenya base, such a narrative is unlikely to sell in the Mt Kenya East region, particularly the Meru community sub-region of Meru and Tharaka-Nithi counties where the new DP is already being hailed as a favourite son.
Contacted by The Weekly Review, Musyoka was clearly cautious not to be seen readying for a tussle with the new DP. “The people of the Mountain, whether West, East or now South (his own Ukambani region) have no problem with Kindiki, or Gachagua for the matter,” he said. Their problem, he said, is that they all want Ruto out. He recalled the “Kufa dereva, kufa makanga” clarion call during the Gachagua impeachment public participation hearings where many said that if the DP goes, Ruto must also go since they were elected as a pair and share joint responsibility for whatever went wrong. He also insisted that Ruto used unlawful means in fast-tracking the impeachment of his deputy on a host of unproven allegations, warning that precedent had been set where similar tactics might be employed against Kindiki in due course.
Musyoka did not want to respond yet to questions on his quest for the Mt Kenya vote, but it is clear that a major political re-alignments are in the offing. The massive Mt Kenya vote basket remains up for grabs, hence Musyoka’s interest in a Gachagua alliance, but there is still a big question mark on Uhuru’s stance. The former president’s campaign for Raila in 2022 was roundly rejected by his own Mt Kenya base, but across the region there is a deep sense of regret that his warning on the consequence of a Ruto presidency went unheeded.
Raila now having apparently ditched Uhuru to enter into a new alliance with Ruto raises queries about the political options of the fourth President. He has remained publicly non-committal on the very public approaches from Gachagua. He has also never commented on Narc Kenya leader Martha Karua’s very open approaches during the launch of her Kamwene Movement in October last year and the Limuru III Conference in May this year. Both were forums billed as charting the political destiny of Mt Kenya, which included securing support of Uhuru to no avail.
While the former president has remained mum on recent political developments, close advisors such as former MP David Murathe routinely dismiss utterances from those who claim to have his ear or to speak for him such as Jubilee Party Secretary Jeremiah Kioni. Likelihood is that the apparent endorsement earned by Musyoka at the Ndumberi gathering might be meaningless unless backed by heavyweights such as Uhuru or Gachagua.
The most prominent convenors were the likes of former Kiambu Governor Ferdinand Waititu and the leader of the proscribed Mungiki sect Maina Njenga, might neither can claim to represent mainstream Mt Kenya leadership.
Under-privileged community
And it might well bring another problem because Njenga’s involvement presented a potent propaganda tool for detractors likely to raise alarm over possible resurgence of the traditionalist sect which gained notoriety for deadly criminal activities.
Meanwhile, it remains to be seen how Kindiki moves to consolidate his new status. His acceptance speech following swearing-in at the Kenyatta International Convention Centre last Friday saw him treading gingerly around the subject of regional leadership. He clearly learnt a lesson from the travails of his predecessor, and instead of trumpeting the Mt Kenya numbers, preferred to project himself as the humble son of a small, remote, under-privileged community. The spin suggested his keen appreciation that in the Kenya Kwanza regime it does not profit for Mt Kenya leader to chest-thump about the vote base and act as if President Ruto is beholden to him for survival.
Kindiki, instead, dwelt on his loyalty to the president and commitment delivery of the coalition development agenda, carefully avoiding all talk on his ambitions or the eventual presidential succession. Sooner or later, however, the new DP will be constrained to solidify his position. He will easily secure loyalty of the Meru base, and then move on to the Embu community, but the real test will be in the inroads he needs to make into the majority Kikuyu community, a restive base where a rebellion fuelled by Gachagua will be likely taking root.
It will be a delicate task, for while it might be a genuine attempt to win back the populous community for Ruto, some will see it as an attempt to establish his power base to the detriment of the president, as well as get a leg up over other Kenya Kwanza partners and likely succession contenders like Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi and or even Raila’s ODM forces.
Kindiki will obviously be more subtle than Gachagua in how he moves to cement his position, but every move he makes will be closely watched.
