The death of ODM leader Raila Odinga has triggered a quiet but fierce scramble for political supremacy in Nyanza, a region that for decades rallied as one behind its most influential son.
Behind public displays of unity lies a simmering contest among the late Odinga’s loyalists, each seeking to inherit his vast political network and moral authority.
While the Odinga name still commands emotional reverence, the absence of the man who defined opposition politics for a generation, ODM co-deputy party leader Abdulswamad Nassir says, has left a “vacuum that no single leader could fill.”
With Odinga’s death, ODM remains the region’s political lifeline — a movement so deeply woven into Nyanza’s identity that surrendering it to ‘outsiders’ is unthinkable to many local leaders.
Behind closed doors, discussions are underway to ensure that the party remains firmly anchored in Nyanza, with calls growing for a trusted son or daughter of the region to steer it through the uncertain transition and sit on the 2027 negotiation table, with eyes fixed on no lesser position than the Deputy President.
Interim ODM party leader Dr Oburu Oginga has asserted that the outfit must “form government come 2027, or be firmly in government.”
Senator Oburu Oginga during the ceremony to install Raila Odinga Junior as the head on of Raila Odinga'sd family at Opoda Farm in Bondo, Siaya County.
Photo credit: Alex Odhiambo | Nation Media Group
“We are sure that we shall this time round capture power as ODM or capture it under a coalition. But being in the opposition is a thing of the past — ODM will not be there again,” Dr Oginga declared.
As the scramble for succession in Nyanza begins, four key figures have been touted as the people to watch: Cabinet Secretaries Opiyo Wandayi (Energy) and John Mbadi (Treasury), ODM National Chairperson Gladys Wanga and Embakasi East MP Babu Owino.
Embakasi East MP Babu Owino.
Photo credit: Dennis Onsongo | Nation Media Group
The Odinga family is still expected to remain influential, with Dr Oginga as the key player. But the late ODM leader’s daughter Winnie, son Raila Junior — installed as the Raila family spokesperson — widow Ida and younger sister Ruth Odinga, who is the Kisumu Woman Representative, are not being mentioned as seeking overall leadership of the region.
Dr Oginga is considered a safe and stable pair of hands to seal cracks and ensure a smooth transition. His ambitions are also seen as limited, especially given his age.
Internal Security and National Administration Principal Secretary Raymond Omollo.
Photo credit: File | Nation
The name of Internal Security Principal Secretary Dr Raymond Omollo, an influential figure in the Ruto administration from the region, has also come up in the post-Raila era debate.
Although not overtly political, he is a technocrat; his influence and network have expanded considerably since joining the Executive, and he is seen within the ODM orbit as a critical bridge between the State and the Nyanza region, given his proximity to the President.
Dr Omollo’s calm demeanour and bureaucratic bent contrast sharply with the populist styles of key political leaders.
Political pundits argue that it could take time for a leader to emerge as a clear first among equals and widely considered to be the political voice of the community.
The person who steps into Odinga’s shoes will be expected to provide direction for the party and the region, including negotiations ahead of 2027.
There are those who have suggested ODM will go for nothing other than the Deputy President’s slot if it is to remain in the broad-based arrangement with Ruto in 2027, or if it is to join other formations.
Others have, however, insisted ODM should field its own candidate. Whoever takes over political leadership will not only be expected to have the weight to occupy one of the top two positions but also lead the negotiations of a coalition agreement with other political players.
Unlike Odinga, who was the undisputed regional kingpin with national influence, the vacuum — if left for long — could leave different counties in the region picking their leaders and opting to negotiate directly with the Ruto administration.
Dr Oginga has likened the emergence of leadership to the natural growth of mushrooms, saying, “Leaders emerge just like mushrooms grow. You just wake up one morning and find them grown. That’s how God works by elevating leaders.”
He adds: “Even Raila, there was no meeting for the community to elect him their leader, he just emerged on his own.”
The acting ODM party leader has asserted the need to give youth an opportunity, effectively shutting succession doors for himself, Siaya Governor James Orengo and his Kisumu counterpart Prof Anyang’ Nyong’o, whose names have also been featuring in the scheme.
Amid growing exclusion from the ODM inner circle, Dr Oginga on Thursday held talks with Mr Owino, the Embakasi East legislator, in his wider “gather all, scatter none, and scheme.”
But it is the four personalities — Mr Wandayi, Mr Mbadi, Ms Wanga, and Mr Owino — who will be watched keenly as the Nyanza succession battle unfolds.
In the Nyanza succession scheme of things, Mr Owino represents the radical, unfiltered voice of the new generation.
Once the face of student activism at the University of Nairobi, Mr Owino’s rise has been meteoric and controversial in equal measure.
However, his aggressive style and frequent brushes with controversy have alienated some older ODM loyalists who see him as too abrasive.
Opiyo Wandayi.
Photo credit: File | Nation Media Group
Energy CS Opiyo Wandayi, the former Ugunja MP and Minority Leader in the National Assembly, also plunged into political activism while at the University of Nairobi and honed his political skills at the feet of his mentor, Raila Odinga.
Upon the death of Jaramogi Oginga Odinga in 1994, Mr Wandayi, alongside his university comrade Thomas Oduor Odhiambo and other compatriots, staged a take-over of the leadership of the then-subdued Students and Youth Congress of Ford-Kenya.
He became the National Secretary-General of the Congress and transformed it into a formidable organ of the party.
During this time, Mr Wandayi and the leadership of the Youth Movement worked closely with Odinga, who was by then the MP for Lang’ata and the Deputy Director of Elections of Ford-Kenya.
The party chairman, Wamalwa Kijana, and his close associates remained wary of the Wandayi group because of its radical views on the management of party affairs and the perception that they were doing the bidding for Odinga.
In the protracted and bruising contest for the leadership of Ford-Kenya that pitted Odinga against Wamalwa, Wandayi remained firmly in Odinga’s camp, later joining him in the National Development Party (NDP) when the latter decamped from Ford-Kenya and resigned as MP for Lang’ata in December 1996. The two remained close political allies for decades.
Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga eulogises Raila Odinga during the funeral service at Jaramogi Oginga Odinga University grounds in Bondo, Siaya County on October 19, 2025.
Photo credit: Sila Kiplagat | Nation Media Group
ODM National Chairperson Gladys Wanga, also the Homa Bay Governor, has steadily risen through party ranks to the national position.
She cut her political teeth in ODM’s youth and women leagues before being elected Woman Representative in 2013.
In 2022, she made history as the first female Governor from the Luo Nyanza region, triumphing against veteran politician Evans Kidero in a heated contest.
Known for her loyalty to Odinga and her grassroots connection, Ms Wanga commands significant respect, particularly among women and young voters.
National Treasury Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi.
Photo credit: Billy Ogada | Nation Media Group
A trusted Odinga ally who was entrusted with the powerful Treasury docket, Mr Mbadi had fiercely protested after his National Assembly Minority Leader role was handed to Mr Wandayi after the 2022 elections before they both moved to the Cabinet under the broad-based government.
At one time, he had even threatened to resign as ODM national chairman, leading to a fierce political backlash.
His critics, however, argue that his Suba roots could play to his disadvantage in the larger succession plan.
Attention has been steadily turning to the high-stakes political bargaining expected ahead of the 2027 elections.
Nyanza leaders are determined that when the next national power deal is struck, one of their own must be at the table — not as a bystander, but as a principal negotiator.
“The fear is that without a strong regional figurehead, Nyanza could lose its traditional leverage in national politics. It is this resolve — to protect ODM and secure representation in the next government — that now fuels the silent but spirited contest over who inherits Raila’s mantle,” argues advocate Chris Omore.
