Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua’s plan to unveil his own political party by May 15 could deal a major blow to his ex-boss, President William Ruto — a strategy similar to the one the Head of State used against then-President Uhuru Kenyatta in the vote-rich Mt Kenya region ahead of the 2022 elections.
President Ruto formed the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) in the run-up to the elections, while remaining Jubilee Party’s deputy leader under President Uhuru Kenyatta. He then quietly rallied a growing number of elected leaders behind him under the new outfit, careful not to officially defect and risk party sanctions.
Dr Ruto’s gamble worked and won him the presidency against Mr Kenyatta’s Raila Odinga project. Now, in the middle of his first term in office, President Ruto is undergoing the same crisis, with his opponents saying it is political karma at play, as Mr Gachagua, who was impeached in October 2024, has already attracted support from elected UDA leaders who are expected to follow him to the new party.
“After troubling his boss immediately they got into power in 2013 but being tolerated without being impeached, President Kenyatta was patient. But he (President Kenyatta) pounced on his deputy immediately after they won a second term. President Ruto thought he was smarter than his former boss. When he encountered a perceived toxic Deputy, Rigathi Gachagua, he impeached him immediately,” says political scientist Mr John Okumu.
The scenario potentially presents a similar script in two successive General Elections, with immediate deputy presidents being the major competitors or kingmakers.
While Dr Ruto started his UDA with a few elected leaders, it is the same case with Mr Gachagua, who has a core team of politicians around him but expects more to move to his camp as the election nears.
President William Ruto addressing delegates during the UDA National Governing Council meeting at the Bomas of Kenya in Nairobi on September 29, 2023.
Photo credit: File| Nation Media Group
“This is what makes President Ruto and Mr Gachagua’s political destinies get intertwined. The two are on the verge of exploding into a cutthroat competition for these elected leaders as well as regional alliances,” says Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology lecturer Charles Mwangi. He adds, “While Gachagua is building his contest formation while impeached, Ruto was building his while still in office. While Ruto had access to government intelligence to set him off in his contest against his boss, Gachagua is doing it from the wilderness of his own devices.”
However, the determining factor in posting success looks the same: the Mt Kenya vote.
“Ruto schemed big in Mt Kenya in 2022, swept it off its feet, and sustained a well-coordinated onslaught that convinced area voters to rebel against their own (President Kenyatta, who backed Azimio candidate Raila Odinga). Mt Kenya made Ruto president,” says political scientist Gasper Odhiambo.
Now, Mr Gachagua appears set to do to Dr Ruto what the latter did to Mr Kenyatta: pull the region out from under his feet.
“The same trick of promising development in Mt Kenya region is still being used by President Ruto. As Mr Kenyatta battled to win the Mt Kenya vote, he unleashed public resources in a rapid development drive in the region, but it did not work,” Mr Odhiambo says. He says Mt Kenya region overlooked the development projects and voted for Dr Ruto.
He adds, “We are now facing the same situation where President Kenyatta was beseeching Mt Kenya people to vote for ‘development’ and ignore tribal rhetoric — the very same plea President Ruto is currently making in the region.”
The other Ruto dilemma, similar to the one Mr Kenyatta faced, is the mobilisation of other regions. Political commentator and scholar, Prof Peter Kagwanja, says this triggered the March 2028 handshake between President Kenyatta and Mr Odinga, “who controlled a following of nearly 50 percent of the country.”
“The same case applies now with President Ruto, who has since secured the same handshake with Mr Odinga,” he says.
Prof Kagwanja states that President Ruto has gone an extra mile in trying to get two handshakes after he met Mr Kenyatta in Ichaweri in December last year, just after he had brought in Mr Odinga through the broad-based government.
The real intention of the handshake between President Ruto and Mr Kenyatta, Prof Kagwanja says, was to check the growing influence of Mr Gachagua and search for a formula to prevent a Mt Kenya loyalty flight in 2027.
In what appears to be the same script as that of 2022, Mr Odinga was the cited cause of conflict between President Kenyatta and Dr Ruto, just as now when the ODM boss helped impeach Mr Gachagua.
On August 5, 2020, about 135 Members of Parliament joined hands with Dr Ruto to declare UDA as their new home, saying the governing Jubilee Party had collapsed. Today, Mr Gachagua has been joined by fewer loyalists to announce the same thing—that the ruling UDA party has collapsed and a new party will be birthed to fill the perceived void.
While Ruto loyalists accused ‘outsiders’ of hijacking the ruling party post-2018, Mr Gachagua is saying the same outsider has hijacked Ruto, UDA, and the government.
While Dr Ruto went ahead and recruited Gachagua, and party leaders Musalia Mudavadi , Moses Wetang’ula , Alfred Mutua, Amason Kingi, Justin Muturi , among others, to launch his 2022 presidential bid, Mr Gachagua has gone for his team too. There are current negotiations with Wiper Party leader Kalonzo Musyoka, DAP-Kenya party boss Eugene Wamalwa, former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i, former Cherang’any MP Kipruto Kirwa, and Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya, among others.
While Cecily Mbarire was a nominated MP in Jubilee who stuck with Dr Ruto, she is now a key figure in today’s political events as UDA chairperson ahead of 2027. Ms Mbarire maintains that UDA will remain strong and overcome the wave to give President Ruto a second term, even after Gachagua loyalists laugh her off.
But Mr Gachagua has been pushing the narrative of UDA as a party in decline, just like Dr Ruto in 2022 demonised Jubilee.
President William Ruto's United Democratic Alliance merges with Musalia Mudavadi's Amani National Congress.
Photo credit: Pool
However, Ms Mbarire says UDA is already on high ground, strengthening itself through grassroots elections. “These elections represent a pivotal moment in our journey towards strengthening democracy in our nation. Grassroots elections are vital in ensuring that the voices of our communities are heard and represented,” she said, adding that UDA is currently on a national unity drive by bringing all regions together.
But Kirinyaga Woman Representative Njeri Maina says Mt Kenya is done with President Ruto and his government, and “we are doing exactly what he did in 2022.”
She says she pities President Ruto’s Mt Kenya allies “who are not reading that the head of state is meticulously crafting an alliance out of Mt Kenya, and it is a matter of time before he folds UDA, leaving party orphans.”
