Ruto, ODM bigwigs’ absence at Raila memorial and queries on Odinga family’s political future

Raila Odinga's first anniversary celebrations were held on Thursday October 15, 2026, at the historic Miguena grounds in Bondo, Siaya County under circumstances that observers have described as chaotic, noisy and perilous. Besides, the event recorded high-profile absentees that included President William Ruto, former President Uhuru Kenyatta, and literally all the ODM party's top brass from Luoland. For a person who remains as enigmatic in death as he was in life, that was definitely underwhelming. 

Perhaps, it was the late vice president, Michael Kijana Wamalwa, who came close to describing him aptly when he famously remarked that Raila Odinga attracted love and hatred in equal measure, coining the immortal terms "Railamania" and "Railaphobia." 

Wamalwa averred that "those who love him adore him so much they suffer from Railamania, and those who hate him loathe him so much they suffer from Railaphobia." He summarised it by saying that "the problem with Raila is that you can never love or hate him enough." 

Many people had divergent views about Raila, but one thing that remained incontrovertible was his love for Kenya. In the last three decades of his life, Raila had become some sort of harbinger of "Midas Touch"; a panacea to all socio-political and economic problems that faced Kenyans.

That perhaps explains the outpouring of pain, grief and frustrations that are still being witnessed among Kenyans, one year after his demise. 

Raila died in Kerala, India, where he had reportedly gone for routine check-up. That the Enigma had a will directing that he be buried within 72 hours of his demise dumbfounded Kenyans, many of whom are yet to reconcile with that reality, occasioning pent-up anger. 

Bastardise Raila's legacy

The news of the anniversary celebrations was, therefore, received with a lot of understandable excitement from supporters who saw it as a cathartic opportunity to heal from the sudden death of a man they held in reverence. Raila was most famous for handshakes with political protagonists, sealing his uncontested position as a man who understood that Kenya was bigger than the selfish interests of individual politicians. 

In this respect, he was a bridge-builder; a patriot who chose to utilise lessons learnt from each electoral setback as building blocks to incrementally make Kenya a better society, rather than holding bitter memories. That is the portrait of the leader whose memory Kenyans from all walks of life had waited to celebrate for a whole year. 

Then, disturbing signals began to emerge, threatening to bastardise Raila's legacy. The ODM party, that Raila nurtured for two decades, started to develop crater-like fissures, which eventually morphed into irreconcilable differences among high-ranking officials. Many theories have been put forth in an attempt to explain this sudden unfortunate turn of events in a political formation that was billed for years as "the largest political party South of Sahara Desert, and North of River Limpopo." 

Two explanations seem plausible. Firstly, Raila's larger-than-life stature was the glue that held the party together, effectively pacifying divergent voices, and containing internal tensions from bursting the seams. 

Secondly, the apparent unity within ODM posed an existential threat to other competing political parties and individual politicians. Raila's death therefore, presented an opportunity for these competing entities to try to scuttle ODM in order to realise their expansionist political ambitions.

Alternatively, these formations might endeavour to deny their opponents the advantage of leveraging ODM's unity, in order to inherit the enigma's support base.

Whichever way one looks at it, a new political outfit, known as Linda Wananchi, has emerged to compete directly with ODM for its traditional support base, particularly in Luo Nyanza. This outfit, which brings together former high-ranking members of ODM, including James Orengo, Edwin Sifuna, Babu Owino and other luminaries, seems to gyrate toward Mr Kenyatta, and the "United Opposition" leader, Rigathi Gachagua. 

Showing Ruto the middle finger

Although these Linda Mwananchi bigwigs have since formed their own political parties, they share a commitment to try and deny William Ruto a second presidential term. 

On the other hand, the vast majority of ODM supporters seem to favour the Ruto-led broad-based government, which Raila supported until his untimely demise. This solid ODM support-base gives the president a huge head-start. In the run-up to the Raila anniversary celebrations, however, his widow, Ida, showed an unfortunate rapprochement toward the Linda Mwananchi brigade, essentially creating a fertile ground for its violent confrontation with ODM supporters. 

Besides, observers have interpreted Ida's exaltation of Linda Mwananchi and other opposition formations as amounting to showing President Ruto the middle finger. Had President Ruto graced the occasion, his presence would have potentially caused a needless protocol nightmare with Uhuru Kenyatta — who was initially slated as the chief guest. Luckily both the statesmen skipped the event. 

Furthermore, with the benefit of hindsight, it was wise for President Ruto to have given the occasion a wide berth in view of the political snare that was set for him, most probably without the slightest knowledge of the event organisers. In any case, the president has gone over and beyond to demonstrate his goodwill for Raila and his family.

Unknown to many, it took the president's lobbying to afford Winnie Odinga the East African Legislative Assembly. Moreover, Ida Odinga serves as Kenya's Permanent Representative to the United Nations Environmental Programme (Unep), courtesy of Dr Ruto. The president went further to grant Raila Odinga a much-celebrated State burial, in addition to a multi-million State-funded mausoleum. 

So, attempting to subject the president to circumstances that would have definitely been humiliating is, to say the least, an act of asante ya punda ni mateke. It was equally wise for the ODM chairperson, Gladys Wanga, and other luminaries associated with the mainstream party to have skipped the occasion. 

The poorly-managed Raila’s first anniversary celebrations seem to be working against the political interests of the Odinga family. 

There are clear indications that, arising from President Ruto’s recent week-long tour of Luo Nyanza, the Head of State created sufficient rapport with the grassroots that will enable him to scoop votes from the region in 2027, without necessarily requiring anybody’s support.

Professor Ongore is a Public Finance and Corporate Governance Scholar based at the Technical University of Kenya. [email protected]