The duo rode to power in 2013 earning the moniker UhuRuto for the bromance put on display, then spectacularly fell out in their second and final term to be seen as sworn political enemies.
Hence the import of the surprise meeting last Monday when President William Ruto paid a call on his predecessor Uhuru Kenyatta, sending tongues wagging on the possibility of a dramatic political rapprochement and another shake-up of government to accommodate Uhuru allies.
Then Mr Kenyatta rushed to release an early statement on his surprise meeting with his successor and former Deputy President, a move clearly calculated to counter the encounter being exploited to push narratives of a political ‘handshake’ in the works.
Indeed, fears within Mr Kenyatta‘s inner circle were proved right when most of the media, provided juicy tidbits by the Ruto communications machinery, went into overdrive with speculative stories suggesting that a major shakeup was in the offing which would see the former president nominate key allies to the Cabinet and senior public service ranks.
One newspaper, The Star, even went with a banner headline that the former President’s younger brother — the influential but media-shy Muhoho Kenyatta who keeps a tight grip on family political and business interests — would get a senior Cabinet post and could be a possible running mate in 2027.
“Rubbish” responded a key political and communications strategist of Mr Kenyatta contacted by The Weekly Review. Speaking on condition of anonymity, the aide who has been with the former president ever since he took his first baby steps in politics, dismissed any notion of a political deal, pointing out the fact that Dr Ruto and Mr Kenyatta released separate and conflicting statements following their meeting.
He insisted that if indeed President Ruto’s visit to the Ichaweri, Gatundu, home of his predecessor heralded a major political rapprochement, the two would have agreed on what to communicate through a joint statement, or at least coordinated press releases.
The statement from Mr Kenyatta’s office, released shortly before one came from President Ruto’s State House communications team, started by noting that it was entirely normal for a president to talk to his predecessor, a statement deliberately crafted to debunk any notion of spectacular political import to the visit.
Mr Kenyatta’s statement went on to outline the key points of discussion at the meeting, including many of the issues raised by the Gen Z protests in June against high taxation, as well as grouses around human rights violations, animosity within the political arena and ensuing harassment of opposition leaders and other government critics, threats to democracy, need for accountability and transparency, and delayed reconstitution of the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission.
“What Uhuru Advised Ruto” blared the splash headline in the People Daily, part of the Kenyatta family media empire which obviously gave a spin suggesting the former president was the one in charge of the conversation.
The statement put out by President Ruto’s communications team spun it in a markedly different fashion. It did not at all mention what Uhuru had allegedly lectured him on.
Instead, it dwelt long on areas of concurrence, but mostly on general issues such as the national and global changes and the adverse economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine, while noting progress in addressing resultant issues such as stabilising the shilling and lowering food process.
Notably, however, President Ruto appreciated Mr Kenyatta for overseeing a peaceful transfer of power after the 2022 elections, for demonstrating goodwill towards his fellow leaders and for supporting Kenya’s progress and development.
Dr Ruto also thanked Mr Kenyatta for laying a strong foundation that has enabled the Kenya Kwanza administration to undertake key programmes under the Bottom-Up Economic Transformation Agenda, including transforming agriculture to ensure food security, achieving universal health coverage, providing affordable housing, empowering MSMEs, developing transport and communication infrastructure, last-mile electrification, and re-evaluating and reforming the Competency-Based Curriculum and the education sector in general.
The State House statement said the two agreed on the urgent need to accelerate these and other programmes.
They supposedly also agreed on the importance of a nationalistic, patriotic, and harmonious relationships among all Kenyans, the three arms of government, religious leaders, civil society, and other partners in pursuit of national stability and progress.
Some of these details are in contention. Some of Mr Kenyatta’s close allies dispute the State House narrative, but at the same time concede that they were not present in the talks which were conducted in private between the two leaders, with the usual battery of aides left out.
They had not even been informed about the meeting was to take place being caught by surprise like everybody else.
However, the fact that State House and Mr Kenyatta’s office released competing statements is telling, with instructions on the desired spin almost certainly have come from the two leaders.
It was notable that Mr Kenyatta’s statement did not reciprocate the praise and appreciation that came from the president. Reading through the fog, however, one can see a clear area of concurrence in the two statements hinting at the possibility of some political accommodation, the area Mr Kenyatta seems to be trying to walk away from.
Dr Ruto’s statements said he and Mr Kenyatta “appreciated the need to achieve broader and more inclusive political consensus in the governance of our country to accelerate the attainment of inclusive growth and fulfil the national development agenda”.
Mr Kenyatta, in turn, said that “further continuous engagements are the solution to all-inclusive democratic process … agreed to be consulted privately or otherwise in efforts that lead to a hopeful, prosperous and stable nation” reporting that Ruto in turn “agreed to engage all stakeholders in an effort to remove any unnecessary tension in the country and to propose a reconciliatory way forward”.
He concluded that “tensions caused by the elections are over and it is time to focus on the future as one people”.
Those are the kinds of statements that could be seen as the usual diplomatic finesse that says nothing but could also be interpreted to signal some major move afoot.
Given Kenya’s history of political pacts going back to the deal between opposition leader Raila Odinga and President Daniel arap Moi in 1997, Mr Kenyatta’s entry into President Mwai Kibaki’s government in 2005, the national accord between Mr Odinga and President Kibaki in 2008, the Raila-Uhuru handshake in 2018 and on to the Raila-Ruto ‘broad-based’ government in the wake of GenZ protests earlier this year, one can see series of code words that herald political deals in the making.
Terms such as ‘inclusion, ‘political consensus’, ‘engagement’, ‘stability’, ‘peace’, stability’ ‘reconciliation’ are much in evidence in the two otherwise competing statements, and could serve as indicators of something to come.
So far, however, it is evident that Mr Kenyatta wants to tread carefully, possibly wary of a backlash if he is seen to betraying the populous Mt Kenya electorate that defied his warnings against voting for Dr Ruto in 2022, but is now turning back to him in remorse after ditching Ruto.
Any deal out of the Gatundu parley would not just be about Mr Kenyatta and whatever he may stand to gain, but about Dr Ruto’s efforts to win back the massive Mt Kenya vote that propelled him to victory in 2022, but in now deserting him in numbers after he engineered impeachment of Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua .
President Ruto struck the broad-based government deal with Mr Odinga to help him both ride out the Gen Z youth revolt, and also provide the numbers to ease his ejection of Mr Gachagua. But he has evidently realised that having Mr Odinga’s ODM surrogates in the cabinet, the implied promise of support for his 2027 re-election bid and scattering of the opposition Azimio coalition, does not compensate for the angry rejection he is facing in the populous Mt Kenya region which provided nearly 50 per cent of his vote last time around.
The Weekly Review has learnt that even before the Gatundu visit, President Ruto had quietly reached out to a number of Mt Kenya leaders dangling cabinet and principal secretary positions. Among those reportedly approached were former Nakuru Governor Lee Kinyanjui, former Cabinet Secretary Mutahi Kagwe, and former Laikipia Governor Nderitu Murithi. The feedback was not very encouraging. Many of those approached were willing and eager to serve in government, but were also cautious of entering into any pacts as lone-rangers who might be seen to pursue individual gain rather than community interest. With the hostility to President Ruto so much evident on the ground, they were also afraid of being seen as traitors, thereby irreparably damaging their own future political prospects. Hence the need to approach any deal as representatives of the community through a recognised political formation, and ultimately the need for President Ruto to reach out to Mr Kenyatta so he can give his blessings.
The problem is that Mr Kenyatta was at best ambivalent. Unlike Mr Odinga who assembled the ODM leadership before agreeing to ‘donate’ some talent to the Kenya Kwanza regime, Mr Kenyatta has not given any signal to the Jubilee Party leadership. Indeed, word from the party stalwarts is that those talking to President Ruto are doing so as individuals and have not sought, let alone received, Uhuru’s consent or blessings from the Jubilee.
Contacted by The Weekly Review, Mr Muriithi conceded that he had indeed been approached and indicated his willingness to serve if called upon.
“For every politician it’s a good thing to be approached. It shows that some see value in what you can do”, he said, adding that the Ruto administration obviously needs all the help it can get to build credibility and reverse the trust deficit.
On whether he would enter into any arrangement in his own or a nominee of Mr Kenyatta, he said he wasn’t aware of whatever might have transpired during the private talks between the current and former president, adding that any conversations he’d had on the issue were at a personal level.
Would he answer the call? He was emphatic that if an offered came, “the answer is Yes, I would be agreeable”.
He conceded that his entering government would incite hostility on home ground in Laikipia and the wider Mt Kenya region, but pointed out that throughout out his political career, he had been known for actions that he considered appropriate, even if unpopular.
“It would not be the first time I would have gone against poplar sentiment. Remember I was first elected as an Independent in Laikipia against the Jubilee coalition wave which was the most popular on the ground. Recall I chaired the Raila presidential elections board in 2022 when Mt Kenya was opposed to him,” he said.
His take was that like him or not, Dr Ruto is the president. “You can fold your arms and walk away in a huff, or participate in finding solutions. Elections will come and then we then we will make decision on what to do next, but for now anyone asked to step forward should do so. He pointed out that coalitions around the world are struck between competitors, going on to add that it would be preferable that any coalition in the offing should be properly structured between political movements rather than private deals. A close political aide of Mr Kagwe responded very much in the same way as the former Laikipia Governor. He told The Weekly Review that the former CS has worked in two administrations, Mwai Kibaki’s and Uhuru Kenyatta’s, where he garnered the experience and expertise that would rule him out of being anyone’s lackey. He confirmed that Mr Kagwe had been approached and was considering his options, saying that his priority would be the impact he can make on national development, stability, and serving the people’s interests.
Mr Kagwe is aware that the Gachagua wave would cause hostility in Mt Kenya, but was taking the long view confident that there would be enough time to change things around.
He gave the example of Mr Kibaki who was held responsible for the 2007-2008 post-election violence but left office as the most effective and popular president ever; Mr Kenyatta whose 2022 campaign for Mr Odinga against Dr Ruto was roundly rejected by the Mt Kenya electorate but now everybody rues ignoring him; and Dr Ruto who won the overwhelming Mt Kenya vote that year, but now nobody wants to hear of him.There is no doubt that the biggest loser might be Mr Gachagua if Mr Kenyatta firms up a deal with the President. In the wake of the Gatundu visit, the former DP came out with a message welcoming engagement between leaders, saying he too had had discussion with Uhuru.
It is obvious, however, that his supporters are in a bind. They are seeing betrayal in any move Mr Kenyatta might make, and that might well reflect sentiment on the ground in Mt Kenya.
According to the former DP’s political communications advisor, former Nyeri Town MP Ngunjiri Wambugu, a possible shift by the former president to Dr Ruto’s side will not soften hostile sentiment in Mt Kenya and even other parts of the country.
“Leaders follow the people”, he said, “Even before Gachagua’s impeachment, there was a lot of negativity towards Kenya Kwanza’s unfulfilled promises. Impeachment just became the last nail in the coffin”.
It remains to be seen how things will pan out, but if there is indeed a political deal in the making, another casualty could be Mr Gachagua’s successor at the DP's mansion, Prof Kithure Kindiki, who also welcomes the engagement. However, the reality is that Dr Ruto reaching out to Mr Kenyatta is affirmation that the DP and other key Kenya Kwanza stalwarts from Mt Kenya such as National Assembly Majority leader Kimani Ichung’wah and Economic advisor and former Cabinet secretary Moses Kuria will not be able to reverse the voter flight leading up to 2027.
Meanwhile, the mercurial Mr Kuria, who transformed from protégé to one of Mr Kenyatta’s most virulent critics, came up with an intriguing take. He proposed that all Mt Kenya political parties, including his own Chama Cha Kazi, unite under the Jubilee Party banner.
Chama Cha Kazi is a Kenya Kwanza affiliate party. He seems to be hinting at readiness to ditch Kenya Kwanza for Jubilee, or Dr Ruto for Mr Kenyatta. But it could also be interpreted as a call for Jubilee, as presumed voice of the Mountain, uniting behind Ruto.
