As the dust settles on President William Ruto’s tour of Luo Nyanza, Suba South MP Caroli Omondi is once again set to face off with his arch-rival Stephen Sangira in next year’s General Election in a political duel that has also roped in the Head of State and Treasury Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi.
Mr Omondi’s first ‘mistake’ was to align himself with Dr Ruto and other ODM MPs at a time when the President was considered the community’s ‘enemy number one’.
But when the late Prime Minister Raila Odinga encouraged the region to cooperate with the president, the Suba South MP switched sides and joined the opposition.
Elected on an ODM ticket in the 2022 election and subsequently elevated to the position of Azimio Secretary General, replacing Suna East MP Junet Mohamed, Mr Omondi has announced he will defend his seat with a different political party.
President William Ruto with Treasury Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi, Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga and Suba South UDA chairperson, Stephen Sangira (left), during a recent tour of the county by the Head of State.
Photo credit: Pool
Others seeking to challenge him include Lucy Manyala, Mr Bernard Odhuno, and Maren Ager. The ruling party hopes that Mr Sangira will be its first MP in an ODM stronghold.
During President Ruto’s visit to Homa Bay on September 17, Mr Sangira was in the spotlight as the Head of State recognised him at every stop in Suba South. President Ruto introduced Mr Sangira as his ally — a move that political observers interpret as a subtle endorsement.
“Also, there’s Sangira. He’s a good man and a good friend of mine,” said Dr Ruto.
Mr Sangira stood as an independent candidate and received 14,396 votes (35.50 per cent), while Mr Omondi of the ODM party received 25,805 votes (63.64 per cent). The other candidates were Julius Opala, who received 187 votes, and Prof Luke Misama, who got 161 votes.
According to Mr Mbadi, Mr Sangira would have won the seat had he not intervened to support Mr Omondi. The CS, who was then the ODM chairman, said he had been instructed by the late Odinga to help party candidates win seats.
“He would have failed had it not been for Raila Odinga stepping in to help. He told me that it would be embarrassing if the Orange party lost the seat to an independent candidate, so I was forced to come here and campaign for Caroli in the last two days, which secured his victory by a small margin,” Mbadi told the excited crowd.
Mr Mbadi also asked the President to allow Mr Sangira to leave UDA and join ODM, in order to help remove the MP from office.
When contacted for comment, Mr Omondi said he did not wish to be drawn into a debate about the political rivalry between himself and Mr Sangira.
Just like Ms Manyala, Ms Ager is seeking to make history by becoming the first female MP elected from the region. Suba South, previously known as Gwassi constituency, has never had a woman as its elected MP since its inception.
Ms Manyala is likely to use her position in the ODM to request support from other party members. She is the organising secretary of the party in Homa Bay. Neither of them answered their calls when contacted by the Daily Nation.
Mr Odhuno said he has an elaborate plan to improve infrastructure. The expert in physical planning said that his professional background makes him the best person to transform Suba South.
The region is considered one of the most marginalised in terms of development. This is the first time the government has built tarmac roads in the constituency.
“These projects should have an impact on agriculture. We need to improve agricultural services through extension,” he said.
Political commentator Evans Oloo, from Homa Bay, described the Suba South contest as a two-horse race between the incumbent and Mr Sangira.
“Both are popular and are the frontrunners. Either of them could win. The others are newcomers who have probably not set foot in some parts of the constituency,” he said.
“Sangira is a ground mobiliser with a network of friends, and he is popular among youth and women. Caroli underestimated Sangira in the last election, only realising late on that he was going to lose to an independent candidate,” Mr Oloo said.
Treasury Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi, ODM national chairperson Gladys Wanga and Alego Usonga MP Samuel Atandi (left) during a women’s economic empowerment programme at Ndiru Primary School in Homa Bay Town constituency on June 26, 2026.
Photo credit: George Odiwuor | Nation Media Group
He said the involvement of Mr Mbadi, Governor Gladys Wanga, and the ODM machinery then turned the tables in favour of the MP.
However, President Ruto is interested in having members of his broad-based team win seats in 2027, so voting patterns will change.
"Other factors that will determine the outcome in Suba South are the ODM nomination and the clan factor," Mr Oloo said.
He further said that, in the past, shambolic party primaries have caused voters to boycott the ballot when the party issues certificates to unpopular candidates. The process must be free and fair.
Mr Oloo added that ODM will most likely retain the seat if Mr Sangira becomes the party’s candidate.
The push for zoning also promises to affect election outcomes. While some people believe that certain regions should be reserved for certain parties, other politicians are against the idea, saying that voters should decide who their leaders are.
In Suba South, clan politics also play a role in determining victory. The top three clans in the region are the Dibuoro, the Achuodho and the Lisuria. Politicians are likely to win if they gain the trust of some of the major clans.
Former Homa Bay County Assembly Speaker Evans Marieba told the Sunday Nation that the re-entry of Sangira in the race has changed the political dynamics of the constituency.
“He will have a good chance of winning if he vies on an ODM ticket. But he is not a member of the party. ODM should therefore ensure it conducts free and fair nominations to ensure residents express their will,” Mr Marieba said.
Mr Sangira, who is the Suba South UDA chairperson, said the party ticket he will use to vie for the seat is not an issue at the moment. He, however, maintained that he will be on the ballot next year and is determined to replace Mr Omondi.
