In the run up to the December 2002 General Election, the opposition was clear on its resolve to present a united front against the independence party Kanu.
They crafted the Rainbow Coalition that brought together opposition politicians and Cabinet ministers, who had quit Kanu in protest after President Daniel Moi endorsed a political greenhorn, Uhuru Kenyatta , as his successor in the December 27, 2002, elections.
Among opposition politicians and their supporters, there was a growing sense of urgency for the team to name its presidential candidate. The politicians were caught in a long and winding coalition talks and negotiations, and could not settle on a candidate.
In his book Seasons of Hope , veteran politician and former Kitui senator David Musila recalls how Raila Odinga resolved the puzzle through his Kibaki Tosha declaration on September 22, three months to the presidential contest.
He remembers a morning meeting at Serena Hotel on that day that was attended by Kalonzo Musyoka , Raila Odinga, Charles Nyachae, Moody Awori, Prof George Saitoti and William ole Ntimama.
“After lengthy discussions, we agreed to hold several meetings that would help us agree on who our principal flag bearer would be.”
Before they could leave for Uhuru Park for a rally, Mwai Kibaki arrived and requested to be invited to the talks.
“The message was clear; a united opposition to Kanu was in place. However, we could not ignore the urgency of the need to know who would be our flag-bearer. The multitude was anxious. No one had an answer to that question. When it was Raila Odinga’s turn to speak, he suddenly shouted his now famous Kibaki Tosha (Kibaki suffices) slogan.
Mwai Kibaki (left), Raila Odinga and Kalonzo Musyoka hold hands when they came together under the National Rainbow Coalition in 2002 when Raila declared "Kibaki Tosha.
“The crowd roared back its approval, with their voices thundering across the city and reverberating in waves across Kenya. The riddle was now solved. This announcement came as a shock to all of us.”
The dilemma that faced the National Rainbow Coalition team seems to mirror the current puzzle facing the United Opposition. Although the 2027 presidential election is still 19 months away, there is a growing urge for the camp to name its flagbearer.
Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua has since differed with his Wiper Patriotic Front party counterpart Kalonzo Musyoka over the naming of the United Opposition candidate by March this year.
Mr Musyoka has framed the promised early declaration in March 2026 as a signal of readiness and unity.
“By the first quarter of 2026, the name of a presidential candidate will be made known to Kenyans. I think it is only fair that we work in that direction. And I want to say that I, personally, will do everything possible to hold our team together,” said Mr Musyoka.
But Mr Gachagua, leader of the Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP), disagreed, saying revealing their candidate too early would expose them to harassment by the Kenya Kwanza government.
“We will have one candidate who will face Kasongo (Ruto), but let us not rush to reveal him. The election is still far. We are not stupid, relax,” said Mr Gachagua at the burial of Embakasi North MP James Gakuya in Murang’a on Saturday.
He suggested they emulate the opposition in 2002, who named their flag bearer, former President Mwai Kibaki, just two months before the general elections. “Mwai Kibaki was announced as the sole presidential candidate on October 14, 2002, two months before the elections. If we make the announcement now, we risk exposing our candidate to harassment by the president,” said Mr Gachagua.
Analysis of previous elections shows a trend of naming presidential candidates just months before the contest.
In the December 27, 2007 General Election, Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) named then Lang’ata MP Raila Odinga as its candidate on September 1 to face off with President Mwai Kibaki, who was seeking re-election on the Party of National Unity (PNU).
Mr Odinga won ODM's presidential ticket after he received 2,656 votes against Mr Musalia Mudavadi's 391 votes. The other candidates - Mr William Ruto — got 368, Mr Joe Nyaga 30, while Mr Najib Balala, who had stepped down earlier, got four votes.
In the March 4, 2013 succession race, then Prime Minister Raila Odinga got the nod to be the presidential candidate for the Coalition for Reform and Democracy (Cord) on December 22, 2012. This was after the Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka stepped down for him. A huge crowd of ODM, Wiper Democratic Movement and Ford Kenya supporters witnessed the unveiling at Uhuru Park.
On December 23, 2012 The National Alliance (TNA) and United Republican Party delegates endorsed then Deputy Prime Minister as the Jubilee presidential candidate.
United Opposition leaders (from left) Rigathi Gachagua, Kalonzo Musyoka and Eugene Wamalwa speak to the media at the SKM Command Centre in Nairobi on November 26, 2025.
Photo credit: Dennis Onsongo | Nation Media Group
Similarly, in the August 8, 2017 poll, the National Super Alliance (NASA) named Mr Odinga as its presidential candidate on April 27. Mr Kenyatta, who was seeking a second term, was endorsed by Jubilee Party candidates on May 6.
In the August 9, 2022, presidential contest, Azimio La Umoja coalition endorsed Mr Odinga as presidential candidate on March 12, 2022.
In Kenya Kwanza, then Deputy President William Ruto was officially elected as the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) party leader and its presidential candidate during the party’s National Delegates Conference on March 15, 2022.
In the run-up to the 2022 election, IEBC held a consultative meeting with political parties and independent candidates on April 26, 2022, to discuss timelines to submit list of persons for president and deputy president candidates and governor and deputy governor candidates to the commission.
In the election, the commission set May 16 as the deadline for political parties and independent candidates to ‘submit names of persons intending to participate in the August 9th 2022 General Election for the positions of president, governor and their deputies.’
In the 2017 elections, nominations for the Presidential Elections were conducted on May 28 and 29.
Kitui Senator Enoch Wambua, a close ally of Mr Musyoka, says there is no problem naming a candidate as early as now, so long as there is unity within the camp. He says naming a candidate early enough will give the coalition time to popularise their candidate.
“As is expected, opinion is divided on this matter. There are those who argue that the earlier the better and an almost equal number of people urging caution against an early decision. Both sides have strong points.”
“My view is that so long as there is a commitment to unity among all the opposition leaders, let us do it without undue delay. In any case, we know that UDA, or whatever is left of it, has a presidential candidate. The opposition should announce their better option in good time to popularise their candidate of choice,” said Mr Wambua.
But Gatanga MP Edward Muriu claimed that the agitation to name opposition flagbearer was coming from their opponents, whom he accused of trying to create division in the coalition.
United Opposition leaders, led Rigathi Gachagua (centre), address the media in Nairobi on December 11, 2025.
Photo credit: Dennis Onsongo | Nation Media Group
“The plan is to kill the one term by buying leaders, splitting parties, and creating disharmony because Kenya Kwanza knows a united opposition will take it home early in the morning.”
“We shall not bulge. We shall disclose our candidate at the right time, at our convenience. In 2002, the opposition settled on Kibaki two months to the election. Our focus now is to strengthen our parties,” said Mr Muriu.
Prof David Monda, a US-based university lecturer and political analyst, notes that there are both positives and negatives of naming a presidential candidate early or late.
In early naming, he says, the lead candidate is able to mobilise resources to challenge the incumbent on top of reducing political uncertainty.
“To pick out the weaknesses of the opposition while contrasting these with the strengths of the incumbent. It can lead to division in the opposition ranks as dissatisfied players opt out of the opposition or choose the go it alone - weakening the opposition,” explains Prof Monda.
“Naming a candidate too early can lead to the opposition running out of money/resources if campaigns start too early. It can also lead to voter fatigue if the electioneering cycle is too long. Eliminates the element of surprise for the opposition towards the government, if a candidate is announced too early,” he adds.
Javas Bigambo, another political analyst, notes that the opposition seems to peg its strategy on the timeliness of unveiling its presidential candidate.
“The opposition has no operational harmony, no uni-direction of purpose and intent, and speaks at cross purpose among themselves. Devoid of singleness of purpose and ideation to challenge President Ruto, whatever time the flag-bearer will be unveiled will count for nothing,” says Mr Bigambo.
