Kingmaking is the supreme game of power. In the wake of Rigathi Gachagua’s impeachment as Deputy President, Mount Kenya is exhibiting the art, the craft, and the folly of kingmaking.
In The Prince – its notoriety for advocating manipulative and deceitful leadership aside – Niccolò Machiavelli depicts becoming a kingmaker as the quickest way to achieve power. This is as true of the biblical Prophet Samuel, who made Saul and David, as it is of Elon Musk, who donated close to $150 million to fund Donald Trump’s presidential campaign.
As a source of power, a kingmaker can be more powerful than the King. Here also lies the lesson for Mount Kenya’s honchos: because kingmakers are the oxygen mask for the King, which, once withdrawn, leaves the King nothing, they are the first to be beheaded once the Prince is crowned king!
Mount Kenya is more accustomed to being made king than being kingmakers. The region has produced three out of five presidents. But in 2027, for the third time since 1978, the region is destined to be a kingmaking bloc – having made Daniel arap Moi (1978) and William Samoei Ruto in 2022. After the impeachment of Gachagua, a tragic surge of a euphoric and senseless wave of radical populism is now sweeping across the region, dividing and potentially turning it politically ineffectual. Also diminishing the effectiveness of the region as a kingmaker are four power blocs vying to spearhead Mount Kenya’s new role as a kingmaker.
First, in his bid to become the undisputed regional kingpin and kingmaker in 2027, former Deputy President Gachagua has used funerals, church services, fundraisers, and whistle-stop meetings to radicalise and whip ethno-nationalism in Mount Kenya to a frenzy, stirring a dangerous wave of populist militancy. From Embu to Murang’a and Kiambu, the Mount Kenya region has descended to the Hobbesian state of nature where life is brutal, nasty, and short.
In the 2022 election, Gachagua successfully played the role of a super “swordsman” in William Ruto’s David-versus-Goliath battle, where he defeated Uhuru Kenyatta to win Mount Kenya and the nation.
As running mate, Gachagua emerged as Ruto’s top “kingmaker.” After the Gen-Z revolt, the formation of the broad-based government with the opposition, and the fallout with the president, Gachagua has intensely radicalised the Mountain region and positioned himself as the kingpin regionally and kingmaker nationally.
It is a paradox that Gachagua symbolises the most enduring and negative legacy of the radical populism of the era of Kenneth Matiba, whose “three-piece suit” clarion cry in the 1992 elections swept low-calibre leadership to power at all levels. As a result, with few exceptions since the 1992 elections, the Mount Kenya region has not elected its best and ablest to Parliament and public office, but rather greenhorns, charlatans, cranks, and jokers with the gift of the gab.
Truth be told, the rise of Gachagua, lampooned as ‘the Simon Makonde of Kenyan politics’, from a one-time MP with no top-level government leadership to deputy president was a quantum leap! Tragically, the Mount Kenya community is neither driven by clearly thought-out interests nor meritocracy in its choice of leaders. Sadly, with the wave of populism and grievance politics, this is likely to continue into 2027.
Second, the badly-divided Mount Kenya elders risk becoming pawns in the game of rival elites to become regional kingmakers. On the road to 2027, sections of Mount Kenya elders are expanding the Gikuyu-Embu-and-Meru Association to include the Kamba in a reloaded Gema. While the new Gema’s role is to foster unity, understanding, and collaboration among Kenya’s diverse communities, in reality, it is an endorsement for Kalonzo Musyoka as the supreme leader of this cultural coalition and its flagbearer in 2027. The new coalition will give Kalonzo a political base comprising over a third of Kenya’s population.
Seeking re-election in 2027
Third, as the highest-ranking public officer from the region, Deputy President Kithure Kindiki is expected to be the kingmaker for President Ruto, who will be seeking re-election in 2027. As a professor of law and having served as Principal Secretary, twice as senator, Majority Leader in the Senate, Cabinet Secretary, Deputy Party Leader, and Deputy President, Kindiki is one of the most experienced leaders from the region. Kindiki is the man after Kibaki’s mantle as the “Gentleman of Kenyan politics.” However, the proposal to divide the region into “East” and “West” is likely to hurt his role as kingmaker. Moreover, hailing from the smallest tribe in Mount Kenya, the Tharaka, with a population of approximately 175, 907 and riding against the wave of anti-government populism, his role as a kingmaker for Ruto in 2027 will be a steep climb.
Fourthly, while former President Uhuru Kenyatta , currently the most genuinely respected and revered leader in Mount Kenya, is prohibited by law from running for another term, his role as a kingmaker cannot be completely ruled out.
Beyond Mount Kenya, Raila Odinga is the most influential kingmaker in Kenyan politics. Manifestly, Odinga has proven more lethal as a kingmaker than as a king to be made. In 2027, his bid for the African Union Commission’s seat is the real black swan scenario. But whether he wins the seat or not, Raila will emphatically shape the 2027 elections.
Prof Peter Kagwanja is the Chief Executive at the Africa Policy Institute and a former government adviser
