Wiper party leader Kalonzo Musyoka (left) and National Assembly Majority Leader Kimani Ichung’wah during the signing of the bipartisan talks framework agreement on August 29,2023.
"Looking at your crystal ball culture man, what do you see? I see the dollar devaluing.."(name of the singer withheld).
How will 2024 pun out? No one can really tell. However, for planning purposes, it's important pundits speculate. Otherwise we shall all be caught flat-footed. Many factors have to be considered for one to make a cogent speculation. And those factors are never constant.
However, trends can give one a glimpse into the future. Therefore, based on the various existing trends, the following predictions are made in various fields nationally and internationally.
In politics, internationally, 2024 is the year many countries will conduct elections. But of course, many countries are counterfeit democracies and definitely their rulers have learned a thing or two from the book How to Rig an Election by Brian Klass and Nic Cheeseman.
Therefore the world should expect chaos arising from electoral disputes. But American elections will be the most watched. It appears to be a rematch between Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Joe Biden unless courts stop Trump.
So far, save in one state, courts have refused to bar Trump and most likely a Supreme Court challenge will be mounted. Trump remains the most popular Republican aspirant.
If a rematch happens, most likely Biden will be reelected, notwithstanding his age. Elections in mature democracies are decided by a minority centre.
The two major parties have their extreme bases and both compete for the centre.
That centre might tilt towards Democrats, albeit to safeguard democracy.
In Kenyan politics, expect a fight over Kimani- Kalonzo reports to dominate 2024.
Whereas the two camps have agreed on the substance of the committee proposals, how to shepherd the proposals into law contains key pitfalls and dangers.
If an omnibus legislative proposal seeking to amend various parts of the Constitution is done containing all those proposals in a single text, expect a court challenge. Some proposals might be challenged under the doctrine of " Unconstitutional Constitutional amendments".
This is a concept under judicial review that holds even a properly passed constitutional amendment, specifically one that is not expressly prohibited by a Constitutional text, it can nevertheless be Unconstitutional on the substantive.
For instance, being founded on extra Constitutional Norms, such a court challenge will most likely contest the intended constitutionalisation of various funds. The best way to successfully evade this prospect would be to enact Kalonzo- Kimani recommendations in "piecemeal" , one by one.
The starting point should be enacting proposals creating leader of opposition slot in Parliament because this seems to have absolute consensus.
On matters economy, expect good coffee and avocado prices in 2024 for Kenyan farmers.
The international demand for coffee is on an upward trajectory but supply will fall as Brazil coffee supply slumps.
Chinese market for avocado will expand in 2024, creating another window of opportunity for Kenyan farmers. But tea farmers should worry about the Hamas - Israel conflict.
Kenyan tea is basically consumed by the Muslim world and the Hamas - Israel conflict undermines this demand as it's repercussions reverberate entire Middle East. Kenyan farmers should also pray for a truce and a calmer Sudan.
On matters energy and technology, expect an explosion of wind and solar energy adoptions as Kenyans move away from expensive Kenya Power and green energy becomes vogue.
More public institutions will automate their services. Forward looking counties will move toward telemedicine with more adoption of Afya.ke at various hospitals.
Problems of cybersecurity, data hosting and protection will exacerbate though.
What opportunities does 2024 offer to Kenya?
The country should be at the forefront of harnessing the world efforts to turn green. This means more investments in solar and wind energy. Electrical vehicles assemblies should be established in Kenya. A closer relationship with China would help since the world’s second-biggest market is becoming a global leader in green economy.
Kenya should also woo western companies that are fleeing China on account of the western government “decoupling " policy in 2024. It should sell “a democracy - low wages - low barriers of trade" mantra to these companies.
Probably this calls for enactment of investor friendly laws including making labour market flexible.
However unfortunate the wars in Middle East and Ukraine, Kenya should seize the opportunity in 2024 to be a friend to all nations geo- politically. We cannot afford to lean on any one side. If the US knocks on Kenyan doors, we embrace it. Likewise China.
Let's us be like a shopkeeper who serves everyone equally as long as the buyer has money.
Dr Kang’ata is the Governor of Murang’a County. Email [email protected].
