Every once in a while, a leader emerges to capture the imagination and adoration of the public across the usual ethnic, party and other fault lines.
This extremely rare occurrence often marks a generational shift from an ossified leadership set to another more in tune with the changing times and seasons. Might we be witnessing the Sifuna Moment?
If events of the past week are anything to go by, Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna, has been elevated to the national psyche since his attempted ouster as ODM Secretary-General by President William Ruto’s faction of the venerable opposition movement.
Two parallel ODM events on Sunday provided a stark illustration of where the momentum is right now. At the Tononoka grounds in Mombasa, party leader Oburu Oginga and a supporting cast out to cut a coalition deal with President Ruto’s UDA presented a damp squib. The veteran Siaya senator clearly has not been able to fill the giant leadership shoes inherited from his departed younger brother, Raila Odinga.
Halfway across the country in the dusty Kitengela township just outside Nairobi, Mr Sifuna’s rival rally was received by a large and energised crowd that aptly captured the public clamour for change. For Mr Sifuna and his crew, the reception in Kitengela was illustrative of which ODM faction carries Raila’s spirit. Police disruption of the roadshow with indiscriminate tear gas volleys very helpfully completed the picture.
A stark lesson from the weekend is that the eloquent Mr Sifuna, 43, represents the energy and imagination of a generation that dares imagine a brave new future not shaped by the straitjacket of conventional leadership.
By contrast, Dr Oginga, nearly 40 years older, comes across as a relic of the past. His doddering presence and often incoherent train of thought must have close allies in the ODM leadership wincing every time he takes to the podium. Even the president might be having second thoughts on whether his designated point man within ODM is capable of swinging the massive vote bank his way.
Oburu, simply put, is not Raila, who even in the period leading up to his death at the age of 80 last October, still commanded a presence as the voice and inspiration for millions in the struggle for democracy and human rights.
It remains a mystery why the lackluster Siaya senator, who has never cut a political profile of his own, was selected to succeed his younger brother as ODM leader.
ODM leader Oburu Oginga (right) and immediate former party Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna.
Photo credit: Nation Media Group
Dr Oginga is clearly out of his depth. The more that reality becomes evident, chances are that his backers, including President Ruto, will accept that there is a yawning vacuum in ODM, and especially the Raila’s Nyanza bedrock.
Once it is concluded that he cannot deliver, Dr Oginga will probably be persuaded to step down. The problem is that those presently gravitating around him and also looking to upward mobility—including party chair Gladys Wanga, Cabinet secretaries Ali Hassan Joho and John Mbadi, Mombasa Governor Abdulswamad Shariff Nassir and other likely beneficiaries of pre-election pact—might be seen as mere Ruto puppets if they step in to fill the void.
From the other side, the Sifuna Moment gaining traction with a series of rallies planned across the country might see many politicians in ODM, who are currently sitting on the fence, moving towards the side that seems to have captured the imagination of the masses.
There is also no doubt that the existing United Opposition fronted by former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, Wiper Party leader Kalonzo Musyoka and former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i will be keen to have Senator Sifuna’s team on board. This would give him a front-row seat at the negotiating table, especially if he brings with him both the spirit of Raila, and the ideals of the “leaderless, tribeless, partyless: Gen Z revolt that rocked the Ruto regime in 2024.
If the surge holds, Mr Sifuna is also set to reap big in the leadership chasm in the populous Western Kenya, where a significant ODM base will likely rally around him, as might supporters of Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi and National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula who were left in the lurch when their leaders latched onto President Ruto’s coattails.
How things turn out in coming weeks and months leading to 2027 remains to be seen, but it is apparent that Mr Sifuna, the man of the moment, is on a trajectory that if properly guided, can place him at the apex of the Kenyan leadership; or he could come tumbling down to earth if unable to compete in the premier league.
Mr Gaitho, an independent journalist, is former NMG Managing Editor for Special Projects. [email protected]
