By-elections this Thursday for one Senate seat, six National Assembly seats, and several County Assembly wards across the country will be closely watched as barometers of the relative strengths of President William Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza alliance and the disunited opposition forces, less than two years to the next presidential and general elections.
The outcome will indicate which political formation at this stage in time has the momentum. Whichever side is seen to have triumphed at the polls will not only claim bragging rights but be in a position to pick up serious traction heading towards the pivotal 2027 polls.
Given the fluid nature of our politics, however, it might be premature to read too much into the by-election outcomes. Two years is a long time in Kenyan politics, where alliances are constantly shaped and reshaped, firming up only months, if not weeks, to the polls.
Viewed from that perspective, it might be more important to monitor the by-elections as a litmus test for the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission rather than as a predictor of trends towards 2027.
It has been apparent since the return of multi-partyism years ago that the weak point in our democracy has been the electoral management system.
A succession of incompetently managed general elections that have resulted in disputed outcomes, court challenges and even near collapse into civil war tells a sad tale of a democracy that doesn’t work.
The current team of electoral commissioners, chaired by Mr Erastus Edung Ethekon, came into office in June with an urgent mandate to restore faith and credibility in an institution that far too often has been seen as a tool of the ruling establishment, or just plain incompetent and corrupt.
Mr Ethekon and his commissioners know that they came into office under a cloud. An opaque selection process that seemed to have sneaked in regime favourites despite them not initially having made the interview shortlist raised suspicion of manipulation.
The commission has to prove that it is not a tool of President Ruto’s political machinery, which will be dependent on the delivery of a foolproof election where the results will be clear for all to see.
For the new team of electoral commissioners, these polls offer a chance for redemption. For Mr Ethekon, personally, it will be the opportunity to indicate the kind of legacy he eventually wants to leave. He can choose to deliver a flawless poll whose outcome cannot be disputed, or become like previous election bosses such as Zacchaeus Chesoni, Samuel Kivuitu and Wafula Chebukati, who all played their parts in almost killing democracy.
The choice is his, but the omens don’t look too good, as it is apparent that the commission is doing things in the same old ways that resulted in tainted polls. One indicator that we have not learnt from past mistakes is the retention of the systems that make the Kenyan election process the most expensive in the world.
Democracy is indeed expensive, but much more so when systems are rigged to provide a gravy train for corrupt officials and their tenderpreneur contacts.
Another red sign is in the deliberate refusal to enforce order, discipline and adherence to ethical and behavioural codes in the electoral process.
Elsewhere, however, the commission has turned a blind eye to organised violence, intimidation, open voter bribery and use of government resources and the security machinery in the electioneering.
The electoral management body also failed, or refused, to exercise its statutory power and lock out aspirants who cannot meet constitutional requirements on the leadership and integrity code, opening itself to suspicion that ‘government candidates’ were being treated with kid gloves.
Appointment of a new slate of electoral commissioners should not have been just the routine revolving door, but an opportunity for a major overhaul so as to straighten out all the kinks and missteps evident over the years.
Do things in the same old ways, however, and you are guaranteed to get the same old outcomes; in this case, inconclusive election results that only set the stage for conflict and erosion of democracy.
Mr Ethekon and his team, together with the entrenched IEBC bureaucracy that long failed the credibility test, have it in their power to deliver free and fair elections. Or lead us down the abyss.
Mr Gaitho, an independent journalist, is former NMG Managing Editor for Special Projects. [email protected]
