We are now in 2026, and President William Ruto must confront a hard truth: the remaining months of his first term are decisive.
What he chooses to prioritise — and, more importantly, what he actually completes — will determine whether his presidency makes an enduring difference to the economy and to the living standards of ordinary Kenyans.
This year, the government has a narrow window to implement what, in my view, would be the most consequential reform in the history of public financial management in Kenya.
Kenya’s National Treasury has embarked on a transition from cash-based to accrual accounting. On the surface, this appears to be a technical reform best left to accountants. It is not. Properly implemented, accrual accounting — anchored in the Integrated Financial Management Information System (IFMIS) — could fundamentally alter how the Kenyan State plans, commits and accounts for public money.
Last week, I visited the National Treasury to engage the Director of Accounting Services, Mr Jona Wala, on the progress of this reform. I will spare readers the technical details. The key point is this; even the most strident critic of the administration would concede that meaningful progress has been made.
The case for accrual accounting is best illustrated by Kenya’s chronic problem of pending bills. At both national and county levels, obligations are routinely incurred outside effective commitment controls.
Contracts are signed, goods delivered and services rendered, yet payment is deferred to future budgets. Under a cash-based system, these obligations only appear when cash is eventually released. Until then, they exist in a fiscal twilight zone; economically real, but fiscally invisible.
IFMIS was meant to prevent this. Its commitment control module is designed to ensure that no obligation is entered into without an approved budget and confirmed availability of funds.
Yet, as the infamous NYS scandal of 2014 showed, workarounds flourished. Commitments were raised outside the system, uploaded late, or fragmented across votes to evade controls.
At its core, accrual accounting is about honesty. It asks a simple but uncomfortable question — what is the true cost of the promises governments make today?
It exposes legacy weaknesses; poor asset registers, limited visibility over long-term contracts, and the politically convenient habit of rolling unpaid bills from one year to the next.
This year will, therefore, test the administration on a deeper issue; State capacity, broadly defined as the ability of the State to design, finance and deliver large projects on time and within budget.
State capacity, not rhetoric, is what turns ambition into outcomes.
The administration will not be judged by policy documents, task forces or ground-breaking ceremonies, but by concrete projects delivered. Below is my admittedly arbitrary, but economically grounded, list of projects where substantial progress must be delivered this year.
First, the Naivasha–Mau Summit Road. This is the true game changer. Few projects have the potential to unlock productivity across the Rift Valley and western Kenya at this scale. Yet the early signs are troubling. The ground-breaking ceremony came before financial close, giving the impression of political theatre rather than project readiness. Whether construction proceeds at the pace proclaimed by the president remains to be seen.
Second, the extension of the Standard Gauge Railway to Kisumu and Malaba.
Extending the SGR to the Lake Region and onward to the Ugandan border would lower transport costs, deepen regional integration, and reposition Kenya as a logistics hub. But ambition must be matched by execution.
Third, the fertiliser and ammonia manufacturing plant in Naivasha.
In terms of transformative impact, this project ranks very highly. Ground-breaking took place in October. What is being built in Olkaria by China’s Khasian Group will be Kenya’s first true large-scale fertiliser manufacturing plant. This matters enormously. Fertiliser costs are among the biggest constraints on agricultural productivity, food security and rural incomes. Local production could fundamentally alter the economics of farming in Kenya.
Fourth, the privatisation of the Kenya Pipeline Company (KPC). Kenya Petroleum Refineries Limited (KPRL) is a wholly owned subsidiary of KPC, which is why its assets are included in the valuation underway as part of the privatisation process. A well-placed source in Changamwe recently whispered to me that powerful interests within government are pushing for KPRL to surrender part of its land to the Affordable Housing Programme. If true, this would amount to a blatant illegality. The Privatisation Act, 2025 bars capital disposals during an IPO process. If this privatisation is to succeed, the government must avoid decisions that will entangle it in years of avoidable litigation.
If President Ruto wants a legacy rooted in real economic change, these are the projects that matter. Completing them, on time and within budget, would signal that Kenya has crossed a critical threshold — from a State that announces, to one that delivers.
