We are living in very dangerous but interesting times in Kenyan politics. And therefore it helps to analyse what KK government should fear ( and not fear) politically speaking.
Fearing means threats that can torpedo government's popularity. Not necessarily toppling it midstream. A politician's food is public support and anything threatening this is a danger.
KK government should not fear parties like Jubilee, Wajakoya's Roots party or DAPK. Politics everywhere have space for political mavericks who keep the political field entertained and colourful. In the UK, "Vote for yourself" party manifesto is to close the City of Belfast for one year and offer all government services for free. Of course this is not a suggestion they be ignored for being small. No. The Kikuyu say the strongest one is felled by a maize cob. The English say if you are a big tree, we are the small axe ready to cut you down. Do you know where the term vandalism comes from? Vandals were small Germanic tribes who could not match mighty Roman empire. But their incessant raiding and looting of Roman empire contributed to it's fall in AD 455. These small parties are yet to appropriate enough threatening political support. But they can morph into a threatening political coalition into some future hence the need to watch them out.
But Baba is somebody to be feared by KK government. For now he appears good and benign, rescuing KK government. What does Baba get in return? Altruism? Really? But there is no "political romance without finance. You must have a J.O.B if you wanna be with Baba".
It might appear necessary to entice Baba atleast to enable Kenya Kwanza government "buy time" and reach 2027. There is nothing as important in politics (and life generally) than buying time when faced with an existential risk. In the old days, kings used to hold military, executive and judicial powers. Like King Solomon in the Bible. One day a king convicted three persons and ordered death sentence to be carried out immediately. One convictee raised his hand before being taken to die. "Spare my life for only three days and I will make your horse to be flying " .
"Really? Fine" the King retorted knowing how that would save his life during the many battles he led in fighting.
On their way back to the gallows, the other two prisoners asked the cheeky prisoner why he sought three days adjournment of his imminent death. "First, I can die of natural causes before the third day. I'll be spared of the agonising death by hanging you are about to face now. Second, the King can die abruptly before the third day. I'll be released as there will be no King present to sign my death warrants unlike you whose death warrants have just been signed. Finally, who knows, I can just make the horse to fly", he responded.
And therefore, who knows, Baba could just make Kenya Kwanza horse to fly.
But there are hiddem dangers in this marriage. Probably Baba’s bargain is firm support for African Union J.O.B. The assumption is once Baba is in AU, he retires from politics. Some in KK government cite his age. But they are wrong - in presidential politics, as Aaliyah sang, age is nothing but just a number.
Expect Baba to very soon to start exaggerating his age- related physical appearances. White hair. Walking whilst stopping with a mkongojo. All as a subtle signal to political actors that "I am the safest (old) guy around here". And he will be pointing out that even the greatest democracy in the world (US) have just elected an oldie.
Baba going to Addis Ababa is a form of political exiling which tends to grant persons new political rejuvenation. Particularly if AU slot gives Baba continental visibility. This happened in Kiharu. In 2003 in Kiharu , an urbane lawyer was elected as MP. In 2007, he was kicked out for being too elitist. Luckily he got an ambassadorial post in Europe between 2007 and 2013. On his return, he won the Senatorial position and no one cared about his elitism. Kenneth Lusaka was kicked out from Bungoma gubernatorial seat in 2017 but became Senate's Speaker. Bungoma people would see him on TV ordering politicians around. They welcomed him in 2022 with open arms and forgot "carcinogenic wheelbarrows ".
I highly suspect Baba, once in Ethiopia as AU boss, will return to Kenya and do what Okonkwo did in his village of Umuofia in "Things fall Apart" ( Chinua Achebe) on his return from exile in Mbanta. Okonkwo prepared a huge feast for his mother's kinsmen. Expect a huge Baba feast in 2027 January.
Surely, between AU presidency and being no.1 in Kenya, which is better?
Every likelihood is that Baba once he gets AU slot, will start imagining things in Kenya. AU might only be a springboard.
The other person to be watched is the villager. The villager has two unique features. His prowess in deep, figurative vernacular language. Plus his position, which he can leverage to continuously throw jabs particularly in Mt Kenya. In his battle with Mt Kenya MPs disloyal to him, very soon he might convert himself to Omo-pick- a-box famous TV show anchor. MPs from the region intend to stick with the KK government for developmental resources, but the villager might traverse the region posing, "money or the box?". You either chose so-called developmental money or political box and survive. It will be interesting to see MPs' choices. These jibs will be accelerated once Baba joins KK.
But the villager can also do a rapprochement with KK government, hedging for some future. But that means those that had openly gone after him are in the soup. That will be akin to purpoted Joshua's reason for praying the sun to stand still so that he could see "animals that die by the day but are alive by the night". Backstabbers. Thats why the Bible in Ecclesiastes 3:7 states there is a "time to keep silent; and a time to speak.".
And Yours Truly - where will he sway? Well, I ought not to use this forum to amplify personal preferences. Mine is to analyse political events unemotionally, objectively and using impersonal third person language. Politics "as it is" rather "as it ought to be". Save to governors, the key role is developmental. Projects . Projects. Projects.
