The government faces a tough balancing act to sustain low unga prices as agriculture experts and millers warn of rising maize costs despite the State’s pledge of a bumper harvest this season and new measures to protect local farmers from cheap imports.
The Ministry of Agriculture has admitted impending maize supply challenges due to growing competition between animal feed manufacturers and maize millers for grain meant for human consumption. This has led to a rise in prices, hitting households that rely on the staple food.
The NCPB targets to purchase two million bags of maize for the National Strategic Food Reserve, offering Sh3,500 per 90kg bag.
Loaders spread maize to dry at Railways Ground in Nakuru on October 17, 2025.
Photo credit: Boniface Mwangi | Nation Media Group
The board has purchased over 100,000 bags of 50kg maize in the past month as it faces stiff competition from millers and other traders.
The rising maize prices in local and regional markets come amid expectations of increased yield, from 67 million bags in 2024 to 70 million bags this season, dashing government hopes of sustained low unga prices.
Consequently, millers want market forces of supply and demand to determine maize prices, a move likely to push flour prices higher due to rising demand in the local market.
“The unga prices are likely to hit above Sh150 due to the current high demand unless the government puts in place urgent intervention measures,” said David Maina, a miller in Eldoret City.
But the government remains upbeat that unga prices will remain affordable as the country targets a yield of 70 million bags of maize, up from 44 million bags in 2022 and 67 million bags in 2024.
“The price of a 2kg packet of flour has fallen from Sh250 in 2022 to as low as Sh130 today. For millions of households, this is meaningful daily relief,” President William Ruto said during the recent State of the Nation address.
He attributed the projected increase in maize yield to the distribution of over 21 million bags of affordable fertilizer, lowering the cost of production and saving farmers over Sh105 billion.
“This year alone, we delivered 7 million bags of fertilizer and 35 million kilos of certified seed. In 2026, we will distribute 12.5 million bags across all 1,450 wards,” the President explained.
However, millers warn that unga prices are likely to rise due to increasing maize prices in the local market, which could hurt most households.
“Consumers should prepare for an anticipated increase in unga prices, as most millers have pitched camp in the North Rift region, mopping up maize from farmers and stockpiling the produce, clearly indicating impending shortages,” cautioned Ezekiel Kosgei, a farmer from Moiben, Uasin Gishu County.
Harvesting is ongoing in parts of the North Rift, the country’s food basket, with the national yield projected at 70 million bags against annual consumption of approximately 45 million bags.
Maize production stood at 42.1 million bags in 2020, 44 million in 2022, and 67 million in 2024. Kenya’s maize flour production over the last five years has averaged 2.8 million tonnes annually.
According to the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS), Kenya has imported an average of 295,092 tonnes of maize annually over the past five years.
A survey by the Nation
“The attractive maize prices of above Sh3,200 for a 90kg bag at farm-gate level are motivating farmers to sell the produce and invest in the next crop,” said Jackson Kemboi from Moiben, Uasin Gishu County.
The Ministry of Agriculture projects a yield of 70 million bags this season, up from 67 million in 2024, attributing the bumper harvest to favourable weather and the government’s fertilizer subsidy programme.
The country produced 47.6 million 90kg bags in the 2023 season, indicating an increase of about 38.8 percent compared to the previous period.
