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End of drought in sight, but coming rains unlikely to tip the scale—weatherman
Clouds gather on the horizon along the Kenyan coast at Nyali Beach in Mombasa County. Weatherman says the coastal areas are likely to experience depressed rainfall.
The ongoing drought season will likely end this month, as a forecast for the long rains shows that some parts of the country will have wetter conditions starting March, while drought-stricken regions experience average to low rainfall.
The country’s National Outlook Forum for the March-April-May season released on Tuesday shows that the highlands east and west of the Rift Valley, and the North Western part of the country will have average to above average rainfall.
The Arid and Semi-Arid Lands (Asals) in North Eastern and Eastern regions will have average to below average, with the coastal areas likely to experience depressed rainfall.
Despite the biting impact, Deborah Mulongo, Cabinet Secretary at the Ministry of Environment, Climate Change and Forestry, on Tuesday told journalists that the ongoing drought has not reached a threshold that can be classified as a state of emergency.
The CS was concerned that even though there will be rainfall in the affected regions starting next month, it may have a significant impact, especially because of a depressed short rain season in the last quarter of 2025.
“We are hoping for the best, and also anticipating anything,” she told journalists.
She says that her ministry has been able to map out areas where the country is anticipating negative impacts of the rain, such as mudslides and floods, so that people living in those areas can be informed in good time.
Edward Muriuki, Acting Director at the Kenya Meteorological Department, backed the CS, saying that even though the Asal regions will receive average rainfall, it may not be adequate to offset the deficit that is already on the ground.
“The previous seasons did not perform well. These areas require much more than average rainfall. A significant period for such areas is the October-November-December (OND) rainfall, which already failed,” he said.
La Nina
He explained that failure of the OND climate drivers are usually determined by what happens elsewhere, which ends up affecting another place.
“In the country, what caused the failure of rain to pick up in some parts is the La Nina, which is associated with drought in the eastern part of Africa,” he explained. “We expected to get winds that are moisture laden, but that did not happen."
Muriuki, however, said that the food basket regions in the country look promising despite there being average to above average rainfall.
He said that the Kenya Meteorological Department is also coming up with an application and a USSD option for people with no internet access to help in the dissemination of climate and weather information to people.
Safia Verjee, Executive Director at the Kenya Red Cross told participants that the heightened drought stress in some parts of the country has resulted in nutrition deterioration in most counties. She highlighted about seven counties that are currently in the critical phase: Turkana, Mandera, Samburu, Garissa, Isiolo, Marsabit (North Horr, Laisamis) and Baringo (Tiaty).
She said that a recent assessment shows that about 65 per cent of water sources in some parts of Kenya have dried up and borehole water yields have dropped drastically, forcing the communities in the Arid and Semi-Arid Lands to trek between 5.6 and 9.6 kilometers to fetch water.
“The most extreme conditions were reported in Mandera and Wajir, where households trek up to 10.8 km and in Mandera, where livestock trekking distances reach 14.4 km,” she said.
Safia said that counties such as Mandera, Marsabit, Wajir, Garissa, Isiolo, Baringo, Kajiado, Kitui, Kilifi, Kwale, Tana River, and parts of Turkana are facing worsening food insecurity, with limited pasture regeneration and reduced crop production.
So far, about 2.12 million people are affected by drought-related stress, including rising acute malnutrition, especially among children under five and pregnant and lactating women
Apart from longer walks to get a water source, the Red Cross team has also reported rapid depletion of pasture and water sources for pastoral and agro-pastoral communities, declining livestock body conditions and milk production, undermining nutrition and household incomes, rising staple food prices, especially in Asal counties.
They also report a surge in inter-community tensions over scarce water and pasture as well as other emerging risks of displacement, school dropouts, and heightened protection concerns for women and girls
“Let us ensure that early warnings consistently lead to early and effective action, leaving no community behind,” said Safia.
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