Africa stares at deadly malaria resurgence, risking a generation and trillions
Malaria drugs. The Global Fund provides 59 per cent of all international financing for malaria programmes.
What you need to know:
By the end of the decade, the continent will experience 525 million new malaria cases and 990 million deaths, with the majority being children under five (750,000).
Over the past two decades, nations globally, including Kenya, have achieved major milestones in malaria eradication.
Modern toolkit ranging from two newly approved vaccines, rapid diagnostics, improved treatments, nets, insecticides have boosted interventions, slashing cases of the communicable disease by half, particularly in malaria endemic countries.
A new report, however, points to a bleak future, warning that African countries are staring at an astronomical malaria resurgence that could claim a generation of children and result in trillions in lost economic output.
By the end of the decade, the continent will experience 525 million new malaria cases and 990 million deaths, with the majority being children under five (750,000), according to the report.
Also read: Back to the drawing board: Treated nets fail as resistant mosquitoes fuel malaria resurgence
The monumental resurgence will cost the continent a whooping Sh10.72 trillion in lost Gross Domestic Product (GDP), projects the joint report by the African Leaders Malaria Alliance (ALMA) and the UK-based NGO Malaria No More.
Titled “The Price of Retreat: How underinvestment in malaria risks resurgence, lost growth, and a generation’s future’, the report cites insufficient funding, saying it has caused progress in malaria elimination to stall.
While malaria eradication is within reach, experts argue that success can only be achieved if “resources are strategically invested to strengthen health systems, equip health workers, and ensure families’ access to effective diagnostics, treatments, and preventive technologies.”
The report is part of the global Zero Malaria movement, a pan -African grassroots campaign - ‘Zero Malaria Starts with Me’- that seeks to end malaria in a generation.
It comes at a pivotal time during the countdown to the 8th Replenishment Cycle of the Global Fund, which will be seeking finances to cover 2027-2029 as world leaders and policy makers from major economies congregate.
The G20 Summit in Johannesburg, South Africa is highly anticipated to reinforce sustainable and resilient health systems, accelerate the fight against Aids, malaria and TB as well as build a safer, healthier future for global populations.
The researchers set out to highlight the impact of reducing financial support to the Global Fund, which provides over half of all the international malaria control financing, especially in Africa, through preventive drugs and mosquito nets.
Four scenarios
They analysed four scenarios of funding ranging from severe funding gaps to meeting the global financing targets on malaria.
The results indicated that a 20 per cent reduction in funding in the last round would result in an additional 33 million cases and 82,000 deaths, and Sh10.72 trillion lost GDP by 2030.
The report warns that the continent will experience 525 million additional cases, 990,000 more deaths and Sh10.7 trillion lost GDP in the event that malaria interventions entirely collapse because of funding vacuum.
“About 750,000 of those deaths would be of children under five, representing the loss of a generation to malaria.”
In a decade’s time, Africa’s GDP would plummet by Sh3.84 trillion and bilateral trade by Sh167.9 billion by 2040, because of a similar reduction amount (20 per cent) in the Global Fund’s replenishment, the analysis shows.
“A worst-case scenario where the world turns its back on the fight against malaria and countries cannot implement preventative interventions would cost Africa Sh51.92 trillion and G7 countries 1.94 billion by 2040.”
On the contrary, the report says if the Global Fund gets the full funding replenishment, the continent will experience decreased malaria cases by 865 million, reduced deaths by 1.86 million and a Sh29.72 trillion GDP surge.
Noting that Africa will be especially affected by reduced funding, experts have reiterated the significance of malaria control as a catalyst for trade and economic growth; appealing for sustained investment and additional support from the G7, high-net worth individuals and the private sector.
Debt-ridden African countries, which are still reeling from the Covid-19 economic aftershocks, also have to contend with the growing non-communicable diseases epidemic like cancer and diabetes as well as infectious illnesses.
“More than half of the activities in national malaria strategies are unfunded and endemic countries face increasing commodity gaps. A perfect storm of climate change, rising drug and insecticide resistance, trade disruptions, and global insecurity further undermine the efficacy of malaria interventions and threaten to reverse the hard-won progress that has been made since 2000,” the report reads.
ALMA’s Joy Phumaphi opined: “Africa is stepping up to the plate. We appeal to the world to accompany us in this. We all need to be part of this journey, the end malaria story.”
“It is worrying that donor nations are considering pledging less compared to the last cycle.”
However, the former Botswana Health minister expressed optimism that wealthy nations would step up, arguing that the private sector will ultimately lose, albeit indirectly in the economic potential, jobs and productivity that Africa risks losing.
The Global Fund provides 59 per cent of all international financing for malaria programmes, and in countries where the Global Fund invests, malaria deaths have dropped by 29 percent between 2002 and 2024, helping to support growing economies, experts say.
Without these interventions, malaria deaths would have increased by 94 percent over the same period.
“Our new report is a warning to global leaders that unless the Global Fund to Fight Aids, TB and malaria meets its 8th Replenishment target, the world risks the biggest malaria resurgence on record - costing lives, holding back African economies, and disrupting global trade.”
The report notwithstanding, funding cuts by the majority of the G7 seems inevitable; with President Donald Trump recently announcing that no American official will attend the G7 summit in South Africa.
UK and Germany, which are among nations that have pledged support, are reportedly looking at figures lower than their previous commitment; which could even reduce further gauging by America’s announcement.
