Somalia's authorities, now focused on the fight against al-Shabaab, may have a new fish to fry that could complicate the country's security plan.
This is because ISIS-Somalia, a hitherto sleeper or weaker cell of the global terrorist group in the country, maybe rebuilding itself to become the focal point of the continental threat, according to new intelligence on the group's operations.
The findings, published on Thursday, September 12 by the International Crisis Group (ICG), say that ISIS-Somalia is a smaller terror gang compared to the al-Qaeda-linked al-Shabaab.
But the report warns that this has given the group an advantage in recruiting fighters, especially from abroad, as the authorities in Somalia focus on the bigger threat.
In Somalia, where ISIS has mainly operated in the remote northern mountains of Puntland state, it has established itself as the "financial hub" of the global ISIS network, the report, The Islamic State in Somalia: Responding to an Evolving Threat.
The leader of ISIS-Somalia, Abdulqadir Mumin, a former Shabaab terrorist merchant who fell out with the al-Qaeda-linked group, recently survived a US drone strike that targeted him. He may now become the new caliph on the continent.
“The Islamic State in Somalia, a longstanding if low-profile security threat has refashioned itself as an important part of the jihadist group’s worldwide network. Its chief, Abdulqadir Mumin, has become a key figure in the Islamic State’s global leadership,” the report, a result of interviews with various Somali security officials, researchers and residents in Puntland over the last year, says.
“Over time, however, it has emerged as a key component of the Islamic State’s network, in large part because it can raise substantial revenue, largely through extortion. Indeed, it has sent funds to branches throughout Africa and reportedly even as far away as Afghanistan.”
The clandestine operations, coupled with sustenance from local extortions have made the ISIS cell in Somalia somewhat self-reliant. But it has also profited from authorities’ focus on other crises in the country, including the war on al-Shabaab.
Since 2022, Somalia under President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has pushed for a coalition between the Somali National Army (SNA) and the local vigilante groups to hunt for Shabaabs who normally run their terror in central and southern parts of Somalia. That war has registered mixed results, some wins and some losses, making it a continuous battle.
In June, President Mohamud, however, did admit threats from other extremist groups but indicated al-Shabaab is the biggest threat.
“There is a collaboration between al-Shabaab and the Houthis (from Yemen) in the northeastern part of Somalia. That's a new phenomenon,” Mohamud told The EastAfrican .
“ISIS is also coming to Somalia again. But, as far as I'm concerned, al-Shabaab was the most serious and the dangerous threat to Somalia, as well as the region.”
Al-Shabaab and ISIS-Somalia have been rivals for the last decade, even though their current leaders once worked on the same ideology. Since 2014, ISIS has tried to convince al-Shabaab to pledge allegiance to it, away from al-Qaeda.
Some fighters disgruntled with the way of things decided to jump ship. But they were just a few and were mainly holed up in the northern parts of Somalia. Occasionally, they would make deadly raids.
At other times, they clashed with al-Shabaab, leading to a fierce fight over territory.
ISIS itself has not announced new leaders of its cells across the region. But experts think it is worth monitoring.
Murithi Mutiga, Africa Program Director at the Crisis Group said that while the Islamic State has not made a formal announcement, some officials believe IS-Somalia’s leader, Abdulqadir Mumin, has become the group’s new leader.
“The selection of a caliph from Africa, if confirmed, would be a pivotal development for the group, highlighting how the continent has become a new hub for jihadi activity following the Islamic State's setbacks in Iraq and Syria,” he said.
“Tackling the threat will require focused cooperation among key actors, notably authorities in Mogadishu and Puntland but outside actors within the region and abroad should pay keener attention to a challenge that could evolve into a wider menace.
“As we have seen in the past and as evidenced now by IS-Somalia's sprawling financial footprint, jihadi groups that establish a foothold in one region rarely contain their ambitions only to that area.”
One reason authorities hadn’t seen ISIS as a threat was because it has been a common enemy of both the government and al-Shabaab.
However, Somalia now seems to be a perfect incubator to grow it, largely because authorities have failed in military strategy against the group and also because the federal government in Mogadishu and the Puntland state administration are not on good terms.
“Right now, the security threat posed by IS-Somalia derives more from future ambition than current capacity,” argued Omar Mahmood, Senior Analyst for Eastern Africa, Crisis Group.
“But with mounting evidence of the group’s efficiency in areas such as financing, the Somali government and Puntland administration should set their differences aside to forge a common front, in order to avoid a bigger problem down the road.
“IS-Somalia persists in large part as both the Puntland government and its main jihadist rival Al-Shabaab struggle to crush it. IS-Somalia has beaten back repeated incursions from Al-Shabaab, while its presence in rugged and isolated terrain complicates Puntland’s security response. In addition, the group leverages local connections through its leadership, explaining why it is able to survive in the Bari region of Puntland but struggles to establish roots outside of it.”
The report says some of the people fleeing crises in the region had ended up in ISIS-Somalia hands, becoming recruits. It is unclear whether they volunteered or were forced into fighters’ fold. However, authorities in Puntland have recently announced arrests of foreigners from as far as Morocco, and others from Kenya, Ethiopia, Yemen or Tanzania.
The group has recruited from among Ethiopians, for example, as they sought refuge in Puntland. Authorities in Somalia had earlier detained suspects they said were planning ISIS-Somalia recruitment in Kenya too.
It will require greater intelligence cooperation, the report suggests, to weaken IS-Somalia and prevent it from ballooning inter a bigger problem.
