Wiper Democratic Movement leader Kalonzo Musyoka is back to the drawing board after key allies in the opposition jumped ship and embraced President William Ruto, further complicating the former deputy president's political calculus ahead of the 2027 General Election.
This week, President Ruto nominated Mutahi Kagwe and Lee Kinyanjui, two key allies of former President Kenyatta, to his cabinet, almost four months after co-opting Raila Odinga allies Hassan Joho, Wycliffe Oparanya, John Mbadi, Opiyo Wandayi and Beatrice Askul-Moe. This could be a sign that the Jubilee Party, led by Mr Kenyatta and allied to Azimio, is cosying up to the Ruto administration.
President Ruto has also named more Raila men – Prof Adams Oloo, Joe Ager and Dr Silvester Kasuku – to the Presidential Council of Economic Advisers, continuing the government's broad-based approach.
This means that in Mr Odinga's Azimio la Umoja One Kenya coalition, Mr Musyoka appears to be left with only Democratic Alliance Party of Kenya (DAP-K) leader Eugene Wamalwa after Narc Kenya boss Martha Karua abandoned the coalition.
“We shall not participate in or support the proposed Kenya Kwanza-led broad-based government of national unity. This is a betrayal of the Kenyan people, particularly Gen Z and millennials, who have paid the ultimate price to rid this country of the disastrous Kenya Kwanza regime, their harsh taxes (Finance Bill 2023/2024), corruption, tribalism, unemployment, and the continued high cost of living,” said Mr Musyoka in a press statement after ODM warmed up to Ruto.
“We shall not join for the straightforward reason that such actions are a betrayal of the ideology, values and tenets of both our coalition party and our constituent parties. As long as the Kenya Kwanza regime remains in place, absolutely nothing will change. A Cabinet re-organisation and changing of office holders will only be cosmetic.”
On Thursday, when Ruto appointed Uhuru's allies Lee Kinyanjui, Mutahi Kagwe and Ndiritu Muriithi to the government, Mr Musyoka and Mr Wamalwa insisted they were firmly in the opposition.
“We want to tell those who joined the government to go alone, but the coalition would continue to operate," said Mr Musyoka in Embu.
At the meeting, Mr Musyoka dared Mr Odinga to declare his position after shaking hands with Dr Ruto.
With heavyweights in national politics abandoning him, history is repeating itself for the Wiper boss.
In the run-up to the 2022 elections, the former deputy president assembled a nascent electoral vehicle, One Kenya Alliance, an outfit that brought Musalia Mudavadi, Moses Wetang'ula and Gideon Moi to his side as a third force against Raila and Uhuru's Azimio and Dr Ruto's UDA.
A few weeks before the election, Mr Mudavadi and Mr Wetang'ula dumped him and led their Amani National Congress (ANC) and Ford Kenya parties to join hands with Dr Ruto's UDA, a union that gave birth to the Kenya Kwanza Coalition.
Political analysts say it remains to be seen whether Mr Musyoka, backed by Mt Kenya, can survive on his own in the turbulent waves of Kenyan politics.
Gema, originally an alliance of the Gikuyu, Embu and Meru, has integrated the Akamba, an initiative that appears to have the backing of Mr Gachagua.
Although Mr Gachagua and his allies in Mount Kenya have hinted at a possible coalition with Mr Musyoka to take on Dr Ruto, the third deputy president appears to have set conditions for the Mwingi North MP.
Speaking in Mbooni, Makueni County on Wednesday December 18, Mr Gachagua challenged the Wiper leader to double the votes in the Ukambani voting bloc to qualify for the support of the Mount Kenya region.
“Leadership and politics is about numbers. You need to register as voters. I want to challenge you … if you want us to be together in government, you have to register all your youth to vote. Do not wait until the last minute. Register enough votes. We have done the maths. For you to win the presidency, you must get 50 plus one. You, the people of Ukambani, must now increase your votes in Kitui, Machakos, Makueni, Taita Taveta and other areas to between 3.5 to 4 million,'' Mr Gachagua said.
Political analyst Jairus Okemwa argues that Mr Musyoka appears to be in political limbo after declining to warm up to Dr Ruto like his co-principals in Azimio.
“Although he is not to be ignored in Kenyan politics given his political base that votes as a bloc as it did during the 2017 and 2022 elections, he seems to be isolated from the national political elite while insisting he will run for president,” says Mr Okemwa.
Given that the presidency is mostly won on political alliances, Mr Musyoka’s isolation by the country’s political heavyweights puts him in a precarious position, Mr Okemwa argues.
“If the situation holds until 2027, Mr Musyoka’s ambition could falter. But if he can win Kenyans who are fed up with the government’s policies that his colleagues in the opposition are supporting, and if Mt Kenya does not restore its confidence in Ruto, he can emerge from the political wilderness,” says Okemwa.
Mr Musyoka was the only Azimio leader to criticise President Ruto’s speech on Jamhuri Day (December 12), accusing the country’s leader of daydreaming.
In a statement via his X account, Mr Musyoka described the speech as self-congratulatory and embellished with falsehoods to mislead the public.
The Wiper leader accused the Kenya Kwanza administration of betraying the ideals of Kenya's freedom fighters, who he said fought valiantly to free the nation from colonial oppression.
“That is not the vision of our forefathers, who sacrificed to free us from the punishing and dehumanising yoke of colonialism,” Mr Musyoka said.
“We must free ourselves from the self-serving shackles of this KK regime that thrives on lies, disinformation and misinformation.”
Mr Musyoka termed Kenya Kwanza’s bottom up economic model as illusionary. “Ruto’s illusionary Bottom Up Economic Transformation Agenda (BETA), whichever way you look at it, is founded on the opposite,” he said.
The Wiper Party leader called for unity and resistance against what he described as a predatory regime.
Makueni Senator Dan Maanzo, a key ally in Mr Musyoka’s camp, has insisted that in 2027, Mr Musyoka will join hands with other parties that do not include President Ruto.
“We are already with those who are angry at the widespread misrule, indifference to the feelings of Kenyans and a lack of acceptance of the truth,” Mr Maanzo said.
Political analyst Dr Barrack Muluka believes that Mr Musyoka can’t marshal a strong opposition to Dr Ruto with the recent political developments in the country.
“A vacuum is evolving on the Opposition space. So far, he has styled himself as the new leader of what he calls the people’s loyal opposition. The test is now here. Can he rise to the occasion? Opposition figures have been bold and even daring. Does he have what it takes? Can he cast off the softly diplomatic mien and go into the trenches with the people? Or will he cut his own piece of the deal with the establishment and move on?” poses Dr Muluka.
Governance and political analyst Javas Bigambo, opines that Mr Musyoka “seems to suffer naturally from deficiency of strategy, lack of political energy and dependent so much on sympathy.”
“Kalonzo has not demonstrated political enthusiasm and energy, and he seems least interested in going to various parts of the country to make his case as a presidential candidate. He may not meet the Gachagua conditions, but additionally, there are categories of interests in Mt Kenya and many of them are not under the control of Gachagua,” Mr Bigambo says.
