President William Ruto (left) and ODM leader Raila Odinga.
The two dominant political parties in the country—President William Ruto's United Democratic Alliance (UDA) and Raila Odinga's Orange Democratic Movement (ODM)—face crucial primaries this weekend ahead of the November 27 by-elections.
The nominations will test the “broad-based” political arrangement, as the two parties seek to secure a majority of the 23 vacant seats and consolidate strength before the 2027 General Election.
On Saturday, UDA holds primaries in Baringo County, Malava Constituency and several wards.
National Elections Board (NEB) chair Anthony Mwaura confirmed that preparations were complete, with voting kits already dispatched and armoured vehicles deployed to volatile zones such as Baringo, where a new senator will be elected following the death of William Cheptumo in February.
Mr Mwaura said the party has spent Sh23 million to guarantee a free and fair exercise. Polls will run from 8am to 5pm, with results expected by 9pm. He added that 1,300 presiding officers and 1,300 clerks had been hired.
“Our gadgets are already at the sub-county offices and will be moved to polling stations by Friday. Training of officials and agents is ongoing,” he said.
UDA aims to win at least 80 per cent of the available seats, with strategists insisting credible primaries are key to reinforcing the party’s authority.
ODM, marking its 20th anniversary, is also grappling with internal tensions. The party’s National Executive Committee met in Nairobi on Thursday to review readiness, but rivalry in its Nyanza strongholds threatens unity.
In Kasipul Constituency, the entry of Mr Boyd Were, son of former MP Ong’ondo Were, has unsettled opponents, prompting businessman Philip Aroko to defect and run as an independent.
Several political heavyweights including Mr Robert Riaga, Dr Adel Ottoman and Mr Rateng Otiende are also in the race.
In Ugunja, ODM faces another crowded contest. Aspirants have accused officials of favouritism, warning that imposed candidates could spark fallout.
“Some officials are openly campaigning with their favourites. That undermines the integrity of our party,” they said in a joint statement.
Kasipul primaries are set for September 24, while party elections in Ugunja will be held on for September 26. Additional contests will be held in Nairobi’s Kariobangi North ward and Turkana’s Lake Zone ward. NEC elections chair Emily Awita said voting will be by universal suffrage and secret ballot.
ODM has already withdrawn from Malava after clashes between Governor Fernandes Barasa and former deputy party leader Wycliffe Oparanya. In an unusual compromise under the broad-based arrangement, ODM pledged to back UDA’s candidate.
The by-elections are also testing the Ruto–Raila partnership. ODM has stepped aside for UDA in Banissa, Malava and Baringo, while UDA ceded ground in Ugunja and Kasipul.
However, disagreements persist in Magarini, where ODM insists on fielding former MP Harrison Kombe against UDA’s Stanley Karisa Kenga.
Mr Mwaura said talks to avoid a split were ongoing.
Smaller parties are also fracturing. In Mbeere North, Rigathi Gachagua’s Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) withdrew its candidate in favour of Justin Muturi’s Democratic Party. The move blindsided DCP aspirant Duncan Mbui, who defected to Moses Kuria’s Chama Cha Kazi.
DP is backing Mr Newton Kariuki, while Reverend Isaak Muringi of the United Progressive Alliance has entered the race with quiet support from former Interior CS Fred Matiang’i.
The November 27 polls, filling 24 seats left vacant through appointments, court rulings and deaths, will serve as a referendum on UDA’s dominance and ODM’s survival. Analysts warn that messy primaries could trigger defections and independents, as seen in 2017 and 2022.
“The process must be credible, otherwise we risk repeating past mistakes,” said political analyst Prof Macharia Munene. With security heightened and alliances under pressure, the primaries mark a defining moment for both President Ruto and Mr Odinga.
