Health Cabinet Secretary Adan Duale has spent more than two decades building political power, surviving successive governments and parties to emerge as one of the most influential politicians from North Eastern.
Mr Duale has risen from a local politician to Majority Leader of the National Assembly and Cabinet minister, placing him among the most powerful politicians in the country.
But as he seeks to consolidate that influence ahead of the 2027 elections, Mr Duale is discovering that power in Nairobi does not necessarily translate to dominance back home.
From Garissa to Wajir and Mandera, local politicians are increasingly telling the former Garissa Township MP to keep off their political turf, accusing him of meddling in local affairs and attempting to dictate who should lead the region.
Defence CS Adan Duale (third left) on November 27, 2022. He endorsed Mr Mohamed Dekow (in cap) to succeed him as the Garissa Township MP.
Photo credit: Manase Otsialo I Nation Media Group
For a politician accustomed to being at the centre of power, the resistance presents an intriguing question whether Mr Duale can become the political kingpin of a region whose politics is still heavily shaped by clan loyalties and negotiated power-sharing.
“It is not easy to have a political kingpin in this region. The Somali community is divided along clans, with each having their own political leader. Every clan wants to be associated with one of their own as their leader and not someone from a different clan,” said Ahmed Diriye, a resident of Garissa.
Mandera based analyst Abdullahi Derrow describes him as a political “rabble-rouser” outspoken, confrontational and unafraid to take positions that unsettle his opponents.
“To be honest, Duale is a politician who makes everybody uncomfortable. He speaks his mind, politically confronts people nd takes political positions. He has survived governments, parties and political seasons. Those qualities helped him climb,” Mr Derrow said.
But, he added, the same qualities that propelled Mr Duale to the national political stage could now be making it difficult for him to navigate politics at home in Northern Kenya.
On August 9, Wajir County Woman Representative Fatuma Abdi Jehow publicly told Mr Duale to keep off Wajir politics accusing him of meddling in local leadership and attempting to divide residents along clan lines.
Her outburst followed remarks by Mr Duale about the use of wealth and helicopters to influence politics and unseat her.
Ms Jehow responded defiantly saying her political fate would be decided by voters and not outsiders.
“There are people telling us that they have wealth and helicopters and are determined to ensure wea re not re-elected. It is only Allah who can bring us down. Where are you from and who are you? Stick to where you were elected. If you want to become a kingpin, bring people together but not divide them,” she said.
Barely two weeks later, the confrontation moved to Garissa.
On august 20, Dadaab MP Farah Maalim threatened to mobilise residents to demand Mr Duale's removal from government accusing him of interfering in local politics and undermining the region's system of negotiated democracy.
Daadab MP and Wiper Deputy Party Leader Farah Maalim.
Photo credit: File | Nation Media Group
“We are not the ones who nicknamed you Sultan Hasid. It was not people of Wajir or Mandera but people close to you. If we start to lobby, it won’t take 14 days to have you removed from that position,” Mr Maalim said in Somali.
He warned Mr Duale against overplaying his hand. “Please go slow, you are a young man. We have hesitated so many times to shield you but if you continue, we will not shield you anymore.”
The nickname ‘Sultan Hasid’, loosely translated as ‘jealous Sultan’, has since become a political jab at the CS in Garissa. But beneath the name calling lies a much bigger battle over who gets to shape the region's political future.
The clearest contest is emerging in Garissa where Senator Abdulkadir Mohamed Haji has openly declared ‘war’ on Mr Duale's political influence.
On July 21, Senator Haji vowed to “erase Mr Duale’s political footprints from the county”.
He has since been endorsed by the Council of Clan Elders in Garissa to seek the governorship, putting him on a collision course with Mr Duale and his allies.
The battle is complicated by the intricate clan arithmetic that has long determined political succession in the region.
The larger Ogaden community is divided into three clans of Auliyahan, Abudwaq and Samawathal, each with its own networks of influence.
Senator Haji, who comes from the Samawathal clan, has accused Mr Duale of sponsoring a splinter group that recently installed Mohamed Abdi Samet as its clan Sultan.
Garissa Senator Abdulkadir Mohamed Haji.
Photo credit: Dennis Onsongo | Nation Media Group
Mr Samet replaced Hassan Omar Shurie who was ousted for allegedly endorsing Senator Haji's gubernatorial bid.
At the heart of the dispute is the region's negotiated democracy under which clans have historically shared political positions.
Samawathal and Auliyahan have agreed to swap political offices, with Senator Haji seeking the governorship while Governor Nathif Jama is expected to move on.
Mr Duale, who comes from the Abudwaq clan, is opposed to the arrangement.
He is instead said to be backing former Ijara MP Ahmed Ibrahim Abass, who served as Garissa County Assembly Speaker between 2017 and 2022, for the governor's seat.
It is a struggle over whether the old system of clan negotiations will continue to determine political succession or whether Mr Duale can use his national influence, political networks and experience to redraw the region's political map.
But Mr Duale insists he is not trying to impose anyone on voters. And neither is he prepared to surrender his influence.
“I have been in leadership of this town and for the past over 20 years I have been in charge of this region and Somalis. I will not force anyone on the people but I will give my opinion,” he said in Garissa town over the weekend.
Deputy President William Ruto with former National Assembly Majority Leader Aden Duale during a past tour of Wajir County.
Photo credit: File | DPPS
He has also shrugged off the ‘Sultan Hasid’ tag, arguing that it says more about his critics than it does about him. “I have seen people calling me names but that name and whatever I am doing are completely opposite. I think they mistook that name and instead of calling themselves that name they gave it to me.”
Mr Duale has sought to turn the insult into an argument about his record, saying a jealous leader would not contribute to community fundraisers or build madrassas.
“Can Hasid contribute in a fundraising? Does Hasid build madrassa? Hasid is the one who eats CDF money, who eats money meant for projects and who wants everything for himself,” he said.
He maintains that he will continue to give his opinion on political contests in Garissa and across North Eastern, regardless of the resistance and warned his opponents that they may be underestimating him.
Speaking at a wedding in Garissa town on August 3, Mr Duale told his critics to prepare for a tougher political battle as the 2027 elections approach.
“Towards the 2027 General Election, the kitchen will become hot and those who will withstand it will remain. Those attacking me should brace for a fierce political battle,” he said.
